Elon says
1. Model X will be available later half of 2014
2. Powerwall will install summer 2015
3. Model X was not delayed by Falcon wing doors (then they sued the original designer and switched in May 2015)
4. Model X was introduced and ready for production in Sept. 2015
5. There will be ludicrous mode upgrade for Model S's - mine is still not delivered and "no time is available" according my m Server Center in sunnyvale
6. The original Model S would drive 300 miles
7. The P85D would go 280 miles and was more efficient than a single drive car
8. Tesla would never release a car that wasn't as good as the concept car - lack of 2nd row folding seats vs. the concept that had 2nd row folding seats
9. Tesla would ship close to 58,000 cars in 2015 - later revised down to a lower 50k number
10. The Model III will be unveiled in March - now revised to some sort of partial unveiling
11. The company is 100%n focused on the Model 3 - factually incorrect given all the late breaking engineering issues with the X
12. Employment numbers of the giga-factory - now shows to be grossly overestimated
13. Reliability of the Model S drive train - actual reliability data shows that 2/3'rds of the drive trains are being replaced in the 60,000 mile range - not a customer problem, but certainly an ongoing reliability problem and cost to the investors and company in general
14. The original P85D delivery schedule - later delayed due to lack of next generation seats
15. There won't be a major revision of the Model S for at least a year - 6 months later the "D" is introduced
16. Any of the supercharger roll out schedules - while they have rolled out it's much slower than Elon indicated it would be
17. How long it takes to charge at a super charger - much slower when you're sharing a supercharger with another Tesla
18. Battery swap stations
19. come on people - there's a lot more - let's turn this thread into "Lie's Elon told me and I believed!"
I'm not saying Tesla doesn't accomplish things - some of them are even true - but quite often the timeline is materially different than what was indicated and the technology or plan is introduced with the most optimistic schedule that rarely bares any resemblance to reality and often delayed with foreseeable obstacles or lack of resourcing that is readily apparent to most anyone at the time it leaves Elon's mouth.
forgive me if I do not believe a word that comes out of Elon's mouth.
Okay so Elon has stated multiple times that he's optimistic, so when he makes statements like #1 that's assuming that nothing major goes wrong.
For #2 I think that because production of the powerwall shifted from the Fremont factory to the Giga-factory which delayed it a couple months.
#3 What do you mean, the Model X is the most ambitious car that Tesla has ever made, the doors are the most complicated part about it. Tesla had to switch providers because the original one made promises that they didn't keep, this definitely delayed the MX.
#4 Technically yes it was, I think the delay was because Elon felt pressured by investors to reveal the car and promise deliveries in 2015, if he wasn't pressured i'm sure he would of delayed a bit longer to polish up the assembly line. But in the end they did start deliveries in 2015.
#5 I don't know enough about your SC to comment.
#6 That's technically true, people have driven it over 400 miles.
#7 pretty sure at highway speeds it is because they are different "gears" so they're more efficient at different speeds, but I could be wrong about this one. #8 Thats completely up to opinion. #9 Like I said Elon is an optimistic guy :wink: .
#10 Elon probably doesn't want to make the same mistake as he did on the MX when he unveiled it, it had many of the same characteristics of the MS but now a lot of the design is changed like the nose. This doesn't mean the Model 3 is behind schedule, certain design elements still need to be figured out.
#11 Don't know when he said this.
#12 I've heard reports of this too but in the end this doesn't seem very significant to Teslas overall goal.
#13 We really don't know if the motors are being pushed over their limits from aggressive drivers or if they are defective, if they are i'm sure Tesla is working on or has already implemented a fix.
#14 I believe they get their seats from another provider (correct me if i'm wrong) so it's not entirely their fault... oh and did I mention that Elon is optimistic?
#15 Not sure when he said that.
#16 The supercharger roll out has been on point so far, I think they made a decision to focus resources on other projects rather than put superchargers in locations that wouldn't get a lot of use.
#17 Sure but that's usually three cars or more, and Elon isn't lying about the charging rates.
#18 this was an idea that Elon had but when implemented never saw the use he expected and wasn't worth the money to build one at every supercharger.
#19 What has this thread turned into? I expected everyone to be super eXcited when I posted this but apparently people have a beef with Elon, besides Tesla has been fairly on point with estimating the production rate of their cars and so i'm confident in Teslas ability to ramp production.
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Quoting a stock price is ridiculous as support for your argument. Neither side should do that.
dortor4ev has some valid points: Everyone needs to accept that Elon consistently fails to communicate reasonable timeframes. He's overly optimistic to a severe fault, and as the vocal head of Tesla, probably ought to reign that in. I personally have not heard his "forward looking" statements bordering on criminal. Nothing quoted here would qualify. But they're certainly misleading if you don't discount them as "Elon time".
At the same time, he's leading the charge for something(s) pretty huge and meaningful. It's difficult, and he's going to make missteps along the way. We should absolutely point out the faults and accept the truth for what it is. While I think dortor4ev escalated the argument to a bit of aggression, the responses were also unfair.
Can we agree that Elon needs help with timelines? That Tesla does a lot of things exceedingly well, but could use improvement in other areas? I mean, there's a middle ground here, right?
I absolutely 100% agree with you, Elon has a good excuse to make mistakes seeing that he runs two multi-billion dollar companies and both of them are extremely ambitious.
