Did you feel that? The rapid acceleration of depreciation of your P85

[Citizen-T]

The rate at which Tesla improves its vehicles is going to remain breakneck for many years to come. If you want to wait for a time when you can be sure your car will remain state-of-the-art for a while, then get to the back of the adoption curve. Those buying P95Ds today are going to be singing this song in another year. That's the plight of being an early adopter.

One option that might help is leasing. You pay more year to year, but you can keep riding the wave of new tech and put the resale risk on Tesla.

 

[karmamule]

This release may be more significant than most, but they're going to keep coming. Tesla will not stop innovating. Even if you were to take a hit on your current Model S to get one of these lovely new Ds, odds are very good that within a year they'll be releasing something else that'll make your D feel "old".

If not having the "latest and greatest" makes you feel disappointed with whatever you currently have then you will either have a very expensive road ahead of you, or you can drive what you have now, enjoy the hell out of it, and plan for an upgrade some number of years from now when your budget more comfortably allows for it. And, you'll be getting some new features we are only dreaming of right now.

 

[Dukecat]

Just got a call back from Tesla Motors regarding proposed trade-in value for my 12 month old, 8800 mile, excellent condition (no dings, dents, scratches, etc.) paint protective film and opti-coated P85+. Subject to visual inspection and possible reductions as a consequence thereof, they are offering 33% less than I paid. Ouch. And I thought AutoNation quotes were insulting.

 

[cdub]

Just got a call back from Tesla Motors regarding proposed trade-in value for my 12 month old, 8800 mile, excellent condition (no dings, dents, scratches, etc.) paint protective film and opti-coated P85+. Subject to visual inspection and possible reductions as a consequence thereof, they are offering 33% less than I paid. Ouch. And I thought AutoNation quotes were insulting.

That's pretty standard depreciation. Nothing shocking there. Most of that depreciation happen as soon as you took delivery.

 

[bonaire]

If they do a great job on the Model 3 - will everyone have issues with that being "great" for 1/2 the price of the Model S?

I have a Volt, for now. Might look at the Model 3 if priced right. No way am I buying an EV for more than $40K, in general. I drive electrically 90% of the time except for long road trips and I can go anywhere. My goal is sustainable driving and I'm accomplishing that. EVs are great but there is a limit to price.

 

[breser]

That's pretty standard depreciation. Nothing shocking there. Most of that depreciation happen as soon as you took delivery.

Maybe for a 2 year old car. But 1 year out I'm pretty sure most people have been talking about 20%.

 

[Dukecat]

Perhaps I'm way off the mark here - and anyone with personal experience please chime in - but I would be very surprised if an owner went to MB, BMW, etc. with his/her [excellent condition, low mileage] one year old car desiring to upgrade to a new car from the same manufacturer, that that owner would be required to take a 33% hit on his/her car and have to pay full sticker price for the new one.

Edit: Added text in brackets.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Perhaps I'm way off the mark here - and anyone with personal experience please chime in - but I would be very surprised if an owner went to MB, BMW, etc. with his/her [excellent condition, low mileage] one year old car desiring to upgrade to a new car from the same manufacturer, that that owner would be required to take a 33% hit on his/her car and have to pay full sticker price for the new one.

Edit: Added text in brackets.

Uh, actually no - according to Kelley Blue Book, which is what the dealer is going to go off of, for a 2013 BMW M5 in excellent condition with 12,000 miles you'd be looking at a trade-in value of $68,000.

A brand new M5 is $99,300.

So, that's a hit of 32%. Pretty much the same.

And that's the base car, with no options. The hit on trade-in on options is even worse, so that percentage is only going to get worse in most real world configurations.

And if the new car is the new hotness, you better believe you'll be paying sticker (or then some) from a BMW or Mercedes dealer.

 

[Dukecat]

Uh, actually no - according to Kelley Blue Book, which is what the dealer is going to go off of, for a 2013 BMW M5 in excellent condition with 12,000 miles you'd be looking at a trade-in value of $68,000.

A brand new M5 is $99,300.

So, that's a hit of 32%. Pretty much the same.

And that's the base car, with no options. The hit on trade-in on options is even worse, so that percentage is only going to get worse in most real world configurations.

And if the new car is the new hotness, you better believe you'll be paying sticker (or then some) from a BMW or Mercedes dealer.

I'm not sure how your calculated 32% hit (by comparing the price of a new vehicle to the trade-in value of a one year old vehicle) is relevant. Nevertheless, it's apples to oranges when comparing to the 33% hit I referenced (calculated by determining the percentage decrease from the purchase price of the one-year old vehicle to the trade-in value offered for the same one-year old vehicle). In fact, using your equation, the hit with the Tesla trade-in would be closer to 38%!

Making your BMW M5 example more of an apples to apples comparison, it's closer to a 24% hit. MSRP for a base 2013 M5 was in the low 90's ($90,200 according to cars.com; $92,000 according to Car and Driver), trade-in value of $69,236 according to Kelley Blue Book for one in excellent condition with 8,800 miles (the number of miles after 12 months on my MS). And that trade-in value assumes you're taking your car anywhere, not just to a dealership selling the same make, which my point is, very often takes into account loyalty business.

 

[Vitaman]

The Account loyalty business is a thing of the past.
Dealers rely on 3rd parties, at least for pricier cars, often exclusively.
It takes them out of the equation (well sort of) so that their customer can feel outraged at someone else.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

If they do a great job on the Model 3 - will everyone have issues with that being "great" for 1/2 the price of the Model S?

Seriously. If people are upset now, wow, watch how Model S values take a nosedive as much cheaper, more efficient long-range BEVs hit the market.

Nissan introduced the 6.6kW charger and heat pump on the 2013 Leaf and also reduced the price when they started US production.
GM cut the price of the price of the 2014 Volt by $4-$5k.
Toyota cut the price of the PiP by $2,000.

Everybody knew AWD was coming.
Everybody knew driver assist and Autopilot were coming.
Everybody knows Model 3 is coming and it'll be much cheaper to buy a Model 3 than an S and the Model 3 will be a mid-sized car, which will, all over the world, be a more desirable size than the Model S.
If anyone thinks Tesla will build the cars to allow retrofitting, they're mistaken.
If anyone getting a Model S with Autopilot now thinks they will be able to have Automaton retrofitted in 5 to 6 years time, they're mistaken.

I have a 2013 Volt and I'm happy later 2014 and 2015s have more capacity, and I'm hoping the 2016 Volt will blow my car out of the water and severely diminish its value. I hope so, because that would imply significant engineering improvements that will encourage more sales of a more efficient car.

 

[RandyS]

The way I look at it is simple....My P85 is only worth less if I sell it or it gets into an accident....And I'm not planning for either of those two events to happen soon...Well, okay, I guess I only have full control over the "selling it" part of that statement

Otherwise, my plan is to drive it and ENJOY it for many years to come (with my EV grin)....There's always something bigger/better/cheaper/ coming down the road....