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Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

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Very lively discussion, nice.
An Autobahn rocket it is not.


See but this is where you lose me. Even for the i3 being a lower price, it is a pitiful EV in every regard, and has even been commented as very poor on the luxury standard when you compare it with the rest of the 3 series. For a little more cash you can get the i3 but better in every way, all you are losing out on is the shiny BMW logo. Yet the i3 is "sold out" for their preorders... How does that make any sense?


Does the price of the car really make that big of a difference that it somehow grabs the attention of an entirely different group of people? Here in the US many settled on the Leaf to bide their time until they could get a longer range. I don't really see how this is any different? The only explanation is brand loyalty. I just don't know how you are going to be able to overcome that, and I don't think it is worth it for Tesla to kill themselves in appeasing 63 million people... At least, not right now. They would be better focused on selling to their prime markets and letting this one go for now. They can come back on the redo of the Model S when they have somehow figured out the gearing issue, and got a battery at 150kw. Until then I don't think they are going to be able to overcome the mindset for that market :(
 
Well as I have written before. The i3 base price is half of a Model S 60kwh. You cannot compare these cars. The i3’s price is a lot closer to a Leaf, Zoe or Golf E. Yet none of these cars is close to the i3’s fun factor.

Of course the i3 is lost on the Autobahn. Just like the Model S. In an urban environment however it makes a lot more sense than the Tesla. Excellent turning circle, great visibility and a much higher quality standard. In fact the Tesla’s nav and radio really don’t work very well here. The i3’s range calculation is much more advanced than the Tesla’s. And I would also like to note: If you compare the CO2 footprints of these cars the BMW is on an entirely different planet.
Ironically the Tesla’s inferior product quality could be the reason why so many people short the stock. But as I have learned from this forum: This car is like a religion. In the US it has become a mass movement. It won’t stop.
 
I'm sorry, but it's not just a mass movement. People want a good electric car, but they don't want to give up the comforts they have from the Mercedes, Audi, BMW especially the 5 comfortable seating + loads of space to fit their stuff. No other carmaker is making an EV that is a full five seat four door saloon that can drive reasonable distances. Yes germans are a bit nuts with their autobahn so it's all in their head that they need to drive 250km/h everywhere and if the car doesn't go full speed for 6+ hours in row, then it sucks. This is the only country in the world where this would be "an issue" and in most cases the issue is between the ears. To be honest I would prefer the speeds be limited to 120-130km/h max because I am a physicist and I know what those speeds do.

I just now talked with a board member of a large company here and he arrived in his brand new Mercedes E-class and after the short test drive and chat he asked me if he could call me again when he's doing the ordering to go over the details as he'll be swapping out his E-class car for this for sure.
 
It is a mass movement. Everyone says it's the best car in the world so everyone believes it. This is a how mass psychology works!

Indeed Tesla has done many things right with it. It's just a normal big car with an electric drive. Therefore most people have no problem in adapting to it.
 
It is a mass movement. Everyone says it's the best car in the world so everyone believes it. This is a how mass psychology works!

Indeed Tesla has done many things right with it. It's just a normal big car with an electric drive. Therefore most people have no problem in adapting to it.

It's not people buying it because others say it's the best car in the world. It's because they experience the car and it blows them away with most aspects of it. And the fact that an electric car is a nice saloon with fully capitalizing on the benefits of electric drive and battery locations is an added benefit. Yes, you are in the exclusive club of people who NEED to go to the autobahn for max speed for hours and might have some issues with the interior being so spartan, but that doesn't mean that others who think differently and like the car are immediately under mass psychosis. Most people who drive luxury cars that I've shown the car to and done test drives are impressed with it enough to start seriously contemplating the swap. For them it's not the savings and being green, but the car itself. The savings and greenness is just icing on the cake.
 
No other carmaker is making an EV that is a full five seat four door saloon that can drive reasonable distances.

I'm going to assume that was Auto Correct doing its thing, and not that you were sitting in a bar at the time throwing back a few whiskeys. :wink:

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It's just a normal big car with an electric drive.

This statement alone stamps your view with tremendous bias; that you can't, or won't, acknowledge the fundamental engineering brilliance, both in its simplicity and its complexity of the Model S. I've got a lot of brand loyal Germans in my family, many of whom have worked for Mercedes or BMW in Germany, and they aren't so stubborn as to not recognize the possibilities the Model S brings to the world.

It's NOT 'just a normal big car with an electric drive.'
 
Well as I have written before. The i3 base price is half of a Model S 60kwh. You cannot compare these cars. The i3’s price is a lot closer to a Leaf, Zoe or Golf E. Yet none of these cars is close to the i3’s fun factor.

Of course the i3 is lost on the Autobahn. Just like the Model S. In an urban environment however it makes a lot more sense than the Tesla. Excellent turning circle, great visibility and a much higher quality standard. In fact the Tesla’s nav and radio really don’t work very well here. The i3’s range calculation is much more advanced than the Tesla’s. And I would also like to note: If you compare the CO2 footprints of these cars the BMW is on an entirely different planet.
Ironically the Tesla’s inferior product quality could be the reason why so many people short the stock. But as I have learned from this forum: This car is like a religion. In the US it has become a mass movement. It won’t stop.

I think the religion here goes both ways. Yes, there are too many people on the forum who are blind to the S's drawbacks and execution challenges that face the company.

But I think you're giving too much weight to your personal preferences in cars which blinds you just as much. So you've got religion the other way.

My personal opinion: people who feel that strongly about super high speed performance represents a small niche market, even in Germany. Tesla may not do as well in Germany as they are doing in the US but given Tesla's production numbers, they'll sell as many cars as they want to ship to Germany.

Certainly many of the folks in Silicon Valley would not be buying this car if its performance at 80-110 mph weren't at least on par with the Porsche's, BMW's and Mercedes that they are replacing. The demo Model S's are speed-limited here in the US to 80 mph in part because the folks at Santana Row begged headquarters for it. You can cruise here at 80+ mph if you're careful, Santana Row is very close to two major highways which are fairly empty during the day and too many of their customers were taking the cars to 100+ mph on their test drives. One of the highways heads up a mountain with fairly twisty turns, too.

We'll find out for sure in a year or so. By then, it'll become clear what the buying patterns are in Germany and we'll know.

But speaking as an investor, even if Tesla does terrible in Germany, there's so much demand elsewhere that Tesla has years of room for growth. And any real >120 mph performance problems can be solved with a 2-speed transmission and/or higher capacity battery packs. At least one of those and maybe both should be available by the time the Model E rolls out.

Honestly, the major challenges ahead of Tesla are scaling service and manufacturing. The autobahn issue you keep harping about is basically irrelevant. If Tesla can scale service and manufacturing, they'll grow enough and buy themselves enough time that they'll be able to fix any real problems in the Model E or after. If Tesla can't do that, they'll top out and be a successful supply-limited car company - not a bad thing but the stock price will take a hit and grow more slowly once that becomes clear.

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It is a mass movement. Everyone says it's the best car in the world so everyone believes it. This is a how mass psychology works!

Indeed Tesla has done many things right with it. It's just a normal big car with an electric drive. Therefore most people have no problem in adapting to it.

Here's another voice telling you:

People in the US aren't buying the car because it's a normal car that's electric. They're buying it because you can't get the combination of size, comfort, performance and cargo capacity in any other vehicle. Period.

Plus, short of maybe a McLaren, there aren't any cars out there that match the real-world throttle response of the S. Porsche's, Ferrari's, M-series BMW's, etc. can do it but only if the engine is already revving at high rpms. No one in their right mind drives on the street like that. On a track, yes. On the street, no. You'll shorten the lifetime of the engine too much.

For most buyers, any attractiveness of buying a electric vehicle is more than cancelled out by the fear of buying an expensive car from an upstart company that might not be in business 5-10 years from now.
 
It is a mass movement. Everyone says it's the best car in the world so everyone believes it. This is a how mass psychology works!

Indeed Tesla has done many things right with it. It's just a normal big car with an electric drive. Therefore most people have no problem in adapting to it.
There is extreme bias in your words. After a test drive of the Model S, very few people(unless they have an agenda), would argue that there is a vehicle with better drivability on this planet. That's why there is no pressure at the Tesla stores. The car sells itself.
 
Everyone says it's the best car in the world so everyone believes it.

And everyone thinks that you can drive non-stop at unlimited speeds on all German Autobahns; but in reality that's not true and the myth survives. If you're right (and it's a lonesome view around here) there's just as little reason to assume the bubble will burst. Tesla can still win big time in Germany.
 
I don't know why you guys keep trying to debate Realist. As I stated last week he is clearly a German Car fanboy and a very stubborn one at that. He is living in his own world ignoring all that is going on around him. I get it, I'm mostly of German heritage and loved my past German sedans. I picked up a BMW 540 at the factory and drove it to France on the autobahn. Realist, do yourself a favor and take off your silver tinted glasses and pay attention to what everyone else is acknowledging.
 
Well as I have written before. The i3 base price is half of a Model S 60kwh. You cannot compare these cars. The i3’s price is a lot closer to a Leaf, Zoe or Golf E. Yet none of these cars is close to the i3’s fun factor.

Of course the i3 is lost on the Autobahn. Just like the Model S. In an urban environment however it makes a lot more sense than the Tesla. Excellent turning circle, great visibility and a much higher quality standard. In fact the Tesla’s nav and radio really don’t work very well here. The i3’s range calculation is much more advanced than the Tesla’s. And I would also like to note: If you compare the CO2 footprints of these cars the BMW is on an entirely different planet.
Ironically the Tesla’s inferior product quality could be the reason why so many people short the stock. But as I have learned from this forum: This car is like a religion. In the US it has become a mass movement. It won’t stop.

I guess I have just been subject to sticking to reviews of the i3, since I can't test drive one. I do realize the price, I just can't believe that the price is the only contributing factor in people in Germany flocking to this car when they wouldn't even consider the S.

I do readily acknowledge the flaws of the S, from what I have seen and heard others talk about. I don't try to cover it up when I talk to others about the car. Contrary to some people's beliefs, the S is not the car for everyone. I would even be willing to say that the E is not suitable enough for everyone. If everyone could be satisfied by being given the choice between, what now? 3 models of cars (the S, X and E), then we wouldn't have some 20 different car brands out there each with some 10 - 20 different models. But I would say that as others have pointed out, it seems to be as good of a combination you can get (without compromising on these things) in reaching as wide of an audience as possible for that price range. This would be of course, Space, Range, Performance, and Luxury.

I can't tell if you are suggesting that BMW has a lower CO2 or Tesla... I don't really try to argue for either side of this one (too much), because there is so much misinformation (from both sides) that it is hard to really get a clear picture. I, however, and not supporting the car because it is "green". I am doing it out of a sustainability issue. We just can't stick to gas for much longer and MUST make the shift to all electric. If we don't get enough momentum on this one soon, it will be too late for us. (Keeping in mind that even the best estimates suggest only a 1% market penetration on global sales and maybe a 5% penetration on cars on the road by 2020... it is going to be a LONG shift)
 
I don't know why you guys keep trying to debate Realist. As I stated last week he is clearly a German Car fanboy and a very stubborn one at that. He is living in his own world ignoring all that is going on around him. I get it, I'm mostly of German heritage and loved my past German sedans. I picked up a BMW 540 at the factory and drove it to France on the autobahn. Realist, do yourself a favor and take off your silver tinted glasses and pay attention to what everyone else is acknowledging.

Personally, I'm not arguing with him. He's not going to change his mind and that's ok. But it was worth the effort to uncover the kernels of fact buried in his whining that Germans will think the Model S is a horrible car.
 
Ok guys the market has fallen down but TSLA remains rock solid.

The short ratio is still very high and people continue to view the company as overvalued.

I believe we can see a squeeze post earnings. I have doubled my position at current levels.