Demand drivers for Tesla / EVs

[Gerasimental]

Benz over on Tesla's General forum keeps good statistics pertaining to SuperChargers. 2015 will be close to 2014 in terms of SCers opened. Here is his break down (does not include the Wisconsin SC that just opened).

Thanks - I agree that we will likely end up with the same number built in 2015 than 2014 - but only because 2014 start very very slowly. I seem to remember them saying they would 'accelerate' SpC buildout this year and I see no evidence of that.

 

[jhm]

No, this lady is mythical. No 4 hour trip will have 2h40 added to it. That trip is 251 miles. That requires zero charging. 20 minutes if you want safety. Come on.

And if time is such a factor, take a plane. If it's not, then don't complain about time.

This person is not "the norm" at all. Normal people do not drive 500 miles in a day. You are talking about .01% of the population. I have no idea why anyone is engaging you in your fantastical thought experiment.

The round trip is 8 hours not counting detours to poorly located Superchargers. I live in Atlanta and work with lots
of people who routinely drive between Atlanta and Charlotte for business purposes. That too is an 8 hour round trip. There is no Supercharger between Atlanta and Charlotte. So this has been a deal breaker for potential Tesla buyers in this region.

There is no point on giving Buddy a hard time on this. The Supercharger network has simply been inadequate in the South excluding Florida. Tesla is addressing this, but it is much more aggressive in the Northeast and West. The South is more spread out than the dense urban areas in the Northeast and California. People in those markets might well fail to see that different regions have different transportation needs. In the South many professionals really do have a business need to travel from one urban center to another urban center 200 miles apart. Such trips are on the borderline between flying and driving, especially when you consider all the waiting time in airports and the need to rent cars for ground transportation at your destination. If there were high population density in the South then the airports and ground transportation would be better. So many business travelers in the South actually prefer to drive 200 miles to a city than put up with air travel. Again people in the dense urban areas of the Northeast and California may easily take all this for granted and underestimate transportation needs in other regions.

BTW, why are there more Superchargers in Utah than Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama combined? How many business travelers drive through Utah? That might be nice for Californians on a ski vacation. Tesla really needs to look at business traveler needs on a regional basis. Simply put, the South is underserved.

 

[replicant]

Just ask people who have any experience whatsoever with an EV and you'll see.

Don't you want people who don't know anything about EVs to consider buying an EV? The supercharger network isn't large enough, and few people are fully aware that their house will be their primary fueling station.

We shouldn't dismiss the stories of potential customers who can't get an EV. Actually, I want to hear more from them than from Tesla owners [edit: in another thread, of course!]. We already know that Tesla owners love their car, so what's the point to continually praise Tesla and ignore its future customers?

 

[Drax7]

electricity flows everywhere, billions of electrical outlets, listen to whomever

 

[wdolson]

Not every vehicle is right for every person and every need. If I had a need to haul hay or a trailer on a regular basis, I would probably have a pick up truck. If I had a bunch of kids, I would probably have some kind of vehicle capable of hauling all of them at one time. If I had to drive off road, I would have a 4 wheel drive. If I regularly had to make 300 mile road trips, I probably wouldn't be seriously considering a Tesla. Especially in a part of the country where superchargers and access to other fast chargers is limited. It would also be impractical in a part of the world where driving away from the grid was necessary like some parts of the rural western US.

The number of people who are in a situation where an EV isn't going to work for them is small, and as battery capacities and options for fast charging both expand, those people will diminish with time. Additionally there are currently little in the way of viable EV options for people who need a street legal truck with capabilities on par with an ICE pick up. That will change in the next decade, but that's the reality today.

Awareness of EV capabilities and what is available varies by region. Here in the Western US, Tesla is a very well known brand and about 90% of the people I have talked to about Tesla want one. For most it's an intense desire. In other parts of the country there are less aware of Tesla and there can be more political resistance idea of EVs. There isn't as big a pent up demand for Teslas there.

Right now the critics who say EVs are just playthings for the rich or the super eco people because they are all super expensive or short ranged oddities is true. That will change with the Model 3. Anyone who knows much about Tesla knows this, but most people aren't that aware.

Even still when the Model 3 hits full production, about 600,000 cars a year is still a small car company. Subaru is the smallest mainstream car company selling in the US and they produce a little less than 1 million cars a year. When Tesla reaches 10X it's current production it will still be around 50% of Subaru's production. Over the next decade I think Tesla will become a more and more important player in the car market. Right now they are not even a blip on the radar in overall car sales.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

I shifted 31 posts from the ST thread over here, which is why some of the posts from today refer to the short-term thread and are trying to bend the subject back to ST prices. Apologies if any violence was done to the thread of the discussion.

 

[Papafox]

I know plenty of people that can afford 10, but aren't even thinking about getting one (other than listening to me tell them how great they are).

I have a neighbor that drives from Savannah, GA (actually 20 miles west of Savannah off I-16) to Charlotte, NC (King's Mountain west of Charlotte actually). I sort of had her thinking she might want one. So, she asked me what she would have to do on her regular trips to Charlotte as far as charging (keeping in mind that she drives between 78-82mph). I had already sold her on the fact that she would never again have to stop at a gas station for her local driving. She was in love with that. So, I checked out her route. She drives from her home to I-95 which is about 25 miles. She then goes north on I-95 to I-26, to I-77 to Charlotte. Basically, she would have to stop at both the Santee Charger and the Charlotte charger. The Santee stop would be about 20 minutes, but the Charlotte charge would need to be a full charge. Keep in mind, she makes this drive both ways the same day. Also, keep in mind that the Santee charger is about 10 miles north of where she normally gets off at I-26. So, not only does she have a 20 minute charge there, but she also has a 20 minute detour. The supercharger in Charlotte is also not on her route. It is a 20 minute detour away. So, there's another 40 minutes (plus at least 40 minutes to charge). The charge at Santee ultimately costs her 40 minutes x 2 (80 minutes). And the Charlotte charge costs her 80 minutes (20 detour time +40 charge time +20 detour time).

So, if she drives a Tesla on these trips, her day will be longer by AT LEAST 2 hours and 40 minutes (minus the 10 minutes it takes her to fill her gas tank now). She looked at me and said, "you're out of your mind."

It's not a question of money - sorry to say.

It looks like this lady's round trip is about 650 miles, which is a pretty brutal amount of driving to do. How often does she do this trip: once a week, once a month? Granted, the use of superchargers adds time to the route, but she gets her energy for free, which should be considered. Let's say she drives a car that gets 25 miles per gallon. That would be about 26 gallons for the round trip. At $2.00/gallon, she's saving $52 driving a Tesla vs. a 25 mpg car. If she buys her own fuel, that savings might compensate for one extra hour of travel time, depending upon how she values time vs. cost savings.

Please give us an idea how often she does this trip. If it's only once or twice a month, then the extra time for supercharging might be worth it in order to enjoy the Tesla on shorter drives for the remainder of the month.

 

[TSLAopt]

I think the referral program has huge potential to grow demand much faster so that us long term investors can be more assured that Tesla will continue to pump out as many Model S' as it possibly can for years to come. I started the below thread as I'd like for tesla customers participating in the referral program (including me) to share their knowledge with each other of how they have succeeded with it. Some people may have really good and innovative ideas that if shared could help catalyze everyone else's effort and results in the referral program greatly.

Sharing of Referral success stories