Could Tesla Network launch before full self-driving?

[RationalOptimist]

I had assumed the network would wait until Tesla could offer a driverless Uber service. But the new profiles-in-the-cloud capability suggests that it might launch much earlier based on a Zipcar like model.

In this scenario you could loan your car to anyone with a Tesla profile. They would not need to actually be a Tesla owner, just a driver with a reputation score. You could make your car available to anyone with adequate reputation. They show up at the public parking spot where you left it, unlock it with their cellphone, drive it for an agreed period of time for a $ amount per hour/day/mile and then return it (in great condition or bye-bye reputation).

Let's say the current market for a day's worth of Tesla is >$200. Then you could cover your monthly Tesla lease cost for just a few days' rental. ergo. owning a Tesla becomes FREE. ergo. massive demand for all Tesla models.

Wow... if Tesla launched this next year, it would give them invaluable lead-time to prepare for the full on whammy of the self-driving fleets that will transform our cities. Adam Jonas might get just a little bit excited.

What am I missing?

 

[PaulRocket]

I had assumed the network would wait until Tesla could offer a driverless Uber service. But the new profiles-in-the-cloud capability suggests that it might launch much earlier based on a Zipcar like model.

In this scenario you could loan your car to anyone with a Tesla profile. They would not need to actually be a Tesla owner, just a driver with a reputation score. You could make your car available to anyone with adequate reputation. They show up at the public parking spot where you left it, unlock it with their cellphone, drive it for an agreed period of time for a $ amount per hour/day/mile and then return it (in great condition or bye-bye reputation).

Let's say the current market for a day's worth of Tesla is >$200. Then you could cover your monthly Tesla lease cost for just a few days' rental. ergo. owning a Tesla becomes FREE. ergo. massive demand for all Tesla models.

Wow... if Tesla launched this next year, it would give them invaluable lead-time to prepare for the full on whammy of the self-driving fleets that will transform our cities. Adam Jonas might get just a little bit excited.

What am I missing?

A couple of points:
-could be great for customers who can't afford a Tesla anytime soon
-might stimulate demand, more people get convinced to buy a Tesla
- question is how big is the market for renting Tesla's at $200 per day, it's likely that prices will collapse if the supply gets bigger
-it might make more sense to just wait until Model 3 hits full production-> end of 2018

 

[RationalOptimist]

A couple of points:
-could be great for customers who can't afford a Tesla anytime soon
-might stimulate demand, more people get convinced to buy a Tesla
- question is how big is the market for renting Tesla's at $200 per day, it's likely that prices will collapse if the supply gets bigger
-it might make more sense to just wait until Model 3 hits full production-> end of 2018

Surely the logic of your third point implies that would be better for them to launch earlier. Yes, prices will fall as supply grows. But they could fall a long way and still have great economics for the car owner.

 

[kort677]

the flaw in your theory is how many tesla owners would be willing to share their car? I know I am not eager to participate in any sort of sharing.

 

[RationalOptimist]

the flaw in your theory is how many tesla owners would be willing to share their car? I know I am not eager to participate in any sort of sharing.

Some can afford to value personal exclusivity over money. I get that. But others would love the chance to earn money from their car. Airbnb faced the same skepticism. And look what happened there. There's a feeling of community around Tesla that could help this. Everyone cheering on the arrival of the electric revolution means that everyone has incentive to trust and to honor that trust just a little bit more than you might expect.

The biggest point is that this service would make possible Tesla ownership (even ownership of S/X) affordable to a whole new group of buyers. A $1200/month lease for an S or X could maybe be completely covered by renting it out for a few days/month. That's pretty revolutionary.

 

[Chuq]

The biggest issue I can see is getting the car back to you. Most people would hire the vehicle for a particular trip, so you'd need to guarantee they would do a return trip.

 

[kort677]

Some can afford to value personal exclusivity over money. I get that. But others would love the chance to earn money from their car. Airbnb faced the same skepticism. And look what happened there. There's a feeling of community around Tesla that could help this. Everyone cheering on the arrival of the electric revolution means that everyone has incentive to trust and to honor that trust just a little bit more than you might expect.

The biggest point is that this service would make possible Tesla ownership (even ownership of S/X) affordable to a whole new group of buyers. A $1200/month lease for an S or X could maybe be completely covered by renting it out for a few days/month. That's pretty revolutionary.

some day, down the road, the ownership thing will evolve into a sharing scheme, however the sharing model will only be viable in densely populated places like where you are from, most people who reside in manhattan/brooklyn/hoboken do not own vehicles and might welcome the availability to use cars for pleasure trips. a tell tale that could be looked at today is how is the zipcar like services in manhattan faring?
many of those who reside in outer areas depend on their vehicle for daily usage and cannot dependent on a shared vehicle being available.

it is my view that when you get out of the larger cities to less populated more spread out places the ownership model will not evolve anytime soon.

 

[kort677]

The biggest issue I can see is getting the car back to you. Most people would hire the vehicle for a particular trip, so you'd need to guarantee they would do a return trip.

that is another flaw in this model. I think that there might be a market for sharing vehicles but I don't think that a pool of willing tesla owners is how this sharing concept will become reality. how successful is operations like zipcar?

 

[RationalOptimist]

that is another flaw in this model. I think that there might be a market for sharing vehicles but I don't think that a pool of willing tesla owners is how this sharing concept will become reality. how successful is operations like zipcar?

Zipcar did ok, not amazing. BUT it was not offering amazing cars. Reading the intense level of excitement on model 3 forums, Reddit, etc, it's clear there's massive untapped demand to drive a Tesla.

 

[kort677]

Zipcar did ok, not amazing. BUT it was not offering amazing cars. Reading the intense level of excitement on model 3 forums, Reddit, etc, it's clear there's massive untapped demand to drive a Tesla.

irrational exuberance?
if there was a demand for ridesharing operations like zipcar, zipcar would be successful on a level of apple or amazon. that demand for shared cars, outside of a few big cities or some college towns, is simply not there. I am sure that many people would love to experience the thrill of driving a tesla, I'd love to drive a lambo or a koenigsegg but I don't think that there will ever be a large group of owners of those cars that would be willing to share their vehicles.
I see an opportunity here, if there are some people who are willing to put their teslas into a pool of shared cars an app should be created to match the willing owners of teslas with those who want to experience driving the car.

 

[schonelucht]

What am I missing?

In such a scenario what would Tesla bring to the table that others like zipcar would not be equally capable of providing?

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Tesla talked about car owners would keep much of the fees, in contrast to other networks. Perhaps buy a couple of used Model 3 and put them in the network to earn money

 

[kort677]

Tesla talked about car owners would keep much of the fees, in contrast to other networks. Perhaps buy a couple of used Model 3 and put them in the network to earn money

used model 3's? they aren't all that many new ones out there!

 

[CharlesFL]

You can do this already using a peer-to-peer rental network called Turo. The cloud-stored profile would make it even more convenient.

 

[kort677]

re turo:
How the Turo car rental marketplace works

 

[RationalOptimist]

re turo:
How the Turo car rental marketplace works

That's great. And proves that the trust issue can be overcome. Judging from the prices charged there $200+/day for a model S is easily in range. I think there might be a whole additional market for people wanting to try an electric car, and a cachet to being part of the Tesla network. In short, I'd love to see Tesla clone this as a preparatory phase before FSD. The electronic door opening creates new means for handing over a car. You'd sit inside one and it would immediately adjust your personal settings. What's not to like?!

And when, sometime in 2020, say, they're able to demonstrate level 4/5 self-driving, there would be an existing network of tens of thousands of drivers hungry to try, plus proven software ready to scale.

 

[Reciprocity]

It could, but it wont. Mostly because it would not be differentiated enough to make it worth using over something like Turo or Getarround. Those companies need to advertise because they need consumers. Tesla's network will work because they wont need to advertise if they are the first. They will get so much attention that they wont have enough cars in the network to fulfill the demand, much like they cant make enough cars to fulfill all the orders. Who wouldnt want a Tesla to pick them up for work at the same or lower price then owning a car.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I had assumed the network would wait until Tesla could offer a driverless Uber service. But the new profiles-in-the-cloud capability suggests that it might launch much earlier based on a Zipcar like model.

In this scenario you could loan your car to anyone with a Tesla profile. They would not need to actually be a Tesla owner, just a driver with a reputation score. You could make your car available to anyone with adequate reputation. They show up at the public parking spot where you left it, unlock it with their cellphone, drive it for an agreed period of time for a $ amount per hour/day/mile and then return it (in great condition or bye-bye reputation).

Let's say the current market for a day's worth of Tesla is >$200. Then you could cover your monthly Tesla lease cost for just a few days' rental. ergo. owning a Tesla becomes FREE. ergo. massive demand for all Tesla models.

Wow... if Tesla launched this next year, it would give them invaluable lead-time to prepare for the full on whammy of the self-driving fleets that will transform our cities. Adam Jonas might get just a little bit excited.

What am I missing?

You are spot on. The "flaws" discussed here are temporary issues.