Soolim
Member
Some X mules from several months ago had suspicious camera under the side mirror.
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Exciting news. My X is due in 2016 and I hope they add it to the new X builds. I'll buy any model with newer autonomous hardware. It doesn't matter if the software isn't ready as long as the current 7.0 autopilot features are supported.
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tstafford
Active Member
I think you'd need to figure out what exactly you want the car to do that it can't do now and then assess the likelihood of that happening "soon".
Personally I wouldn't wait on owning a Tesla. I enjoy mine every day and part of the fun is wondering what new stuff they will come out with and whether or not that will make me want to upgrade. I've said this a few times - but Tesla's way of rolling out incremental improvements makes leasing a nice approach. You know your timeframes and costs. Albeit higher costs potentially but they get you some degree of certainty around your upgrade schedule and costs.
I wonder how 5 Eye3Q work with 8 cameras:
1 rear camera connected to Eye3Q
2 side-rear cameras connected to Eye3Q
2 side-front cameras connected to Eye3Q
3 tri-focal front cameras connected to Eye3Q
Above leaves one Eye3Q processor without a camera - perhaps it would be used to interface with other Eye3Q and the car.
1 rear camera connected to Eye3Q
2 side-rear cameras connected to Eye3Q
2 side-front cameras connected to Eye3Q
3 tri-focal front cameras connected to Eye3Q
Above leaves one Eye3Q processor without a camera - perhaps it would be used to interface with other Eye3Q and the car.
sillydriver
Member
I suspect two of the side cameras are on the side mirror mounts pointing toward the rear and replacing side mirror functionality. The other two side cameras are probably fish-eyes that point straight out the sides.
Waiting for additional features in a Tesla will be like waiting for additional features in a smartphone. The product will continuously improve, and the old hardware often will not support the new software features. At some point, you have to throw a stake in the ground and say, "this car has what I want," and buy one, knowing that in a year or two, you'll want the new stuff. Maybe this is just the 21st century version of "planned obsolescence." This might not appeal to people who have a firm policy of buying a car and driving it until the wheels fall off. However, all the manufacturers are doing this to some extent; simply compare the available features in practically any car to the same model from 5 or 10 years ago, and you can see it. I bought a couple of 2006 model vehicles, and since then the list of new things is astounding: keyless ignition, rearview cameras, bluetooth integration, etc., etc., have become very common. You just notice this more in a Tesla because (1) the car is so expensive, and (2) the things that Tesla is adding are so much more advanced and dramatic than the incremental improvements we are accustomed to with most car brands.
Exactly. I'm a buy-expensive-car-and-drive-til-wheels-fall-off person - this rate of progress is difficult to stomach! My last 10 years steed has been a 2004 E55 AMG Benz super sedan - which is no longer very "super" compared with Tesla lol. But it at least was uber powerful and uber luxurious - and technology was basically stable.
But at the rate Elon is innovating the 2024 Model S will have vertical takeoff and landing features and warp drive! But seriously I would not be surprised if the 2024 Model S can be had with no steering wheel and reclining rear lounge seats which do let you legally and safely go to sleep and wake up at your destination. Even two years ago I would have scoffed at the notion but now I'm not so sure.
MarkS22
Member
EyeQ4 has two additional types of vector processors and support for 8 camera inputs on its own. Since engineering samples are coming out around now, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla use five EyeQ3s with eight cameras relatively soon and then upgrade to EyeQ4 when they're available in 2018. Ideally, it would be upgradable since all the wiring would be in place. However, the camera improvements we'll see in the next 2-3 years will be substantial so that could be a problem.
No matter what, we're still looking at about 2017 for city Autopilot driving and at least 2018 for the most basic autonomous. Look how long it took to get a beta of Autosteer. The big question is whether Tesla can put together a sensor suite in the next year than can handle the autonomous software released in 2018-2019.
I don't think any cars rolling off the line in the next year or so will be substantially closer to autonomous than current Autopilot in the next two years. This is one of the reasons I lease.
No matter what, we're still looking at about 2017 for city Autopilot driving and at least 2018 for the most basic autonomous. Look how long it took to get a beta of Autosteer. The big question is whether Tesla can put together a sensor suite in the next year than can handle the autonomous software released in 2018-2019.
I don't think any cars rolling off the line in the next year or so will be substantially closer to autonomous than current Autopilot in the next two years. This is one of the reasons I lease.
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MarkS22
Member
I don't understand. Are you saying that city autonomous driving is EASIER than highway autonomous?
Whoops. I meant city Autopilot-like functionality in the city around 2017 and true basic autonomous at least 2018. You need to put your "Autopilot != Autonomous" in bold.
These dates were based on comments from the CTO of Mobileye, Musk, and others.
Teaser from Q3 Shareholder Letter:
Our customers drove their cars almost 250 million miles this quarter, for a total of nearly 1.5 billion miles to date. We arelooking forward to the day when we can tell you how far our cars have driven our customers, and to the introduction of manymore innovative products manufactured and sold globally.
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/732606071x0x858516/F50A9FAF-BA73-4263-8E16-DE1FAC0BABDF/Q3_15_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
Our customers drove their cars almost 250 million miles this quarter, for a total of nearly 1.5 billion miles to date. We arelooking forward to the day when we can tell you how far our cars have driven our customers, and to the introduction of manymore innovative products manufactured and sold globally.
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/732606071x0x858516/F50A9FAF-BA73-4263-8E16-DE1FAC0BABDF/Q3_15_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
Lots of things lining up for the newer Mobile Eye hardware.
https://youtu.be/0UzVBTgHqSQ?t=839
“By 2016 there’s going to be new launches by GM and Tesla as well” - Amnon Shashua of Mobil Eye on March 23, 2015
Supplier hints at next generation Autopilot hardware for Tesla as soon as this year | Electrek
The CEO described the “more sophisticated system” saying that one OEM is already implementing it in a vehicle:
“Today we are already preparing with one of the OEM, a first vehicle based on 8 cameras, one radar and ultrasonic around the vehicle. So this is much wider implementation of the first introduction of semi-autonomous driving and the trifocal is going to be here as we planned, but additional 4 cameras around the vehicle and one camera looking back. The system will run on 5 EyeQ3 chips and all of them will be connected.” Aviram didn’t disclose which automaker is testing the system, but he hinted it could find its way into a commercial product as soon as this year and we know that Tesla has been testing a similar hardware suite."
Mobile Eye’s Q3 Conference Call from this morning (11/3).
They pretty much confirmed that Tesla will very shortly have the next gen Mobil Eye hardware in Tesla’s automobiles
Such a hardware suite would add $10k to the price of the car (a little more than half of it is cost), and it would hamper the performance and mileage of the car by 10%-20%. Not to mention when launched it will be far from perfect and will require as much attention on autopilot 2.0 as autopilot 1.0 requires. It launches as a tool, not a take-over. Still awesome though. I doubt the timeframe because Musk is always bad with this type of thing, but it is technically possible. The problem though is that we have yet to see Tesla research mules in the city taking intersection after intersection so they still either have to build the 5 eyeq3 prototype or if it is built collect the data required before moving on to the next step. While they have plenty of data from behind and in front, Tesla has little data from side angles.
Do you happen to know what micro runs the computer vision alg's on the Merc system?
Yes it is. From what I understand you think of EyeQ3 as a "brain" - it's a SOC - system on a chip. Current Autopilot uses the EyeQ3 - and a single EyeQ3 is capable of accepting input from multiple cameras (how many, I do not know). But now reports say a new system is coming soon using five EyeQ3 "brains" linked together processing input from a total of 8 cameras processing a 360 degree view of the world around the car.
The *next* generation of "brain" after EyeQ3 is called EyeQ4. The CEO of Mobileye says that a single EyeQ4 brain will be capable of handling the input from multiple cameras which today requires multiple linked EyeQ3's. EyeQ4 will reportedly be in vehicles around 2018.
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