40 kWh and 60 kWh EPA range estimates, and how will it effect defferals?

[Teslawisher]

I really am hoping that the 40 kWh Model S can go more than 100 miles in normal mode without hypermiling, if it cannot, it really will mean that the cheapest Model S worth buying is the 60, and will further cement the idea that electric cars worth owning are too expensive for the average person.

*Bold is mine.

I'm not sure that's quite an accurate statement. Maybe "current" electric cars worth owning... But, we all know the S isn't really designed for the average person. What average person (depends on your definition of average, I guess) buys a car that STARTS at $50k (after rebate). The average person car is the GenIII. Then, that statement will become completely inaccurate.

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I would ignore the EPA numbers, personally. They won't reflect real-world usage.

The performance numbers provided by Tesla are far more useful. Here's the range graph for the 85 kWh pack.

View attachment 9074

Tesla will no doubt provide similar information for the smaller packs, but for now just scale the numbers by the pack capacity - should be pretty darn close.

How does the EPA come to it's new calculations? Do they include some type of real-world driving method?

I average 45 mph, but thats 25 in the neighborhood, 55 on the highway, 45 in town, 70 on the interstate, lots of starts and stops, sometimes just me, sometimes the whole family, summer vs winter (I'm in Illinois), sometimes driving calm, mostly average, and on occasion am aggressive, etc. I don't think I could get any kind of accurate judge on range from a constant speed chart. Would the EPA rating be a closer or better approximation?

 

[Robert.Boston]

The new EPA "5-cycle" test is explained HERE. From what I've heard, it's like "mean low tide" -- it's a conservative estimate of range. It's possible to get worse, if you drive aggressively, but it's easy to do better.

 

[brianman]

Be careful when you use terms like "average person" when you don't have statistics to back it up.

For example, I think many people would find it startling to consider that in a few years the "median person" wouldn't qualify for the tax credit since the "pays no income taxes" line keeps rising.

 

[Rifleman]

Be careful when you use terms like "average person" when you don't have statistics to back it up.

For example, I think many people would find it startling to consider that in a few years the "median person" wouldn't qualify for the tax credit since the "pays no income taxes" line keeps rising.

Very true, your point is well made. Perhaps the phrase "average new premium sedan buyer" would be more appropriate, as the Model S is definitely not intended for a "average" person.

 

[jimbakker666]

Rifleman, I would suggest bumping up to the 60. Why put yourself through the anxiety? And if that means deferring then so be it. Deferring isn't cancelling, it's just moving to a later date. You'll still get your S, and won't ever have to think about range again ;

Just my two cents.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

It's a hard choice, to be sure. I personally was convinced that the MS60 would be fine for me. The two biggest issues that have pushed me into planning on an MS85 are pack durability and fear of future degradation. They are related issues, but fundamentally the larger pack requires fewer charge cycles, which is one of the main determinants of durability. The second issue is age losses, and after any given amount of time, the bigger battery is going to have more juice left than the smaller one.

For me, the more I thought it through, the more I wanted a bigger pack. There is a reason that Tesla is offering a better warranty as you scale up the pack size. It goes from MS40 @ 8/100k to MS60 @ 8/125k to MS85 @ 8/unlimited. Clearly the bigger packs are expected to be more reliable, and thats going to affect resale value down the line, especially when you factor in degraded range.

So basically, I hope to get the benefits of greater range (and performance) now, while also getting a more durable pack and a lower rate of depreciation.

Finally, as someone else pointed out, you get the option of using a SuperCharger with the 60kWh pack, which means you absolutely can take it on a roadtrip if you ever need to.

Still, another hypothesis that I hold near and dear (even if I don't rely on it), is that all of the fears about durability and degradation are generally overblown, and if you never drive more than 100 miles in a day you will probably never, ever have a problem doing that even in the MS40 15 years from now.

 

[setritt]

It's a hard choice, to be sure. I personally was convinced that the MS60 would be fine for me. The two biggest issues that have pushed me into planning on an MS85 are pack durability and fear of future degradation. They are related issues, but fundamentally the larger pack requires fewer charge cycles, which is one of the main determinants of durability. The second issue is age losses, and after any given amount of time, the bigger battery is going to have more juice left than the smaller one.

For me, the more I thought it through, the more I wanted a bigger pack. There is a reason that Tesla is offering a better warranty as you scale up the pack size. It goes from MS40 @ 8/100k to MS60 @ 8/125k to MS85 @ 8/unlimited. Clearly the bigger packs are expected to be more reliable, and thats going to affect resale value down the line, especially when you factor in degraded range.

So basically, I hope to get the benefits of greater range (and performance) now, while also getting a more durable pack and a lower rate of depreciation.

Finally, as someone else pointed out, you get the option of using a SuperCharger with the 60kWh pack, which means you absolutely can take it on a roadtrip if you ever need to.

Still, another hypothesis that I hold near and dear (even if I don't rely on it), is that all of the fears about durability and degradation are generally overblown, and if you never drive more than 100 miles in a day you will probably never, ever have a problem doing that even in the MS40 15 years from now.

not deferring at all regardless of the epa estimates. my driving is almost always around town. for road trips....

i'm planning on the 60kW. my wife has an ICE and unless she's blown away when we finally get to test drive the model S (either taking a road trip from atlanta or seeing someone's after it's delivered) then she will get another ICE when this one's lease is up in 3 years. if she is blown away, maybe the X is in our future and if it doesn't have the range and superchargers aren't set up i guess we will buy a third car for road trips or borrow someone elses.

 

[brianman]

There is a reason that Tesla is offering a better warranty as you scale up the pack size. It goes from MS40 @ 8/100k to MS60 @ 8/125k to MS85 @ 8/unlimited.

I'd like to see them back Elon's claim. More specifically, I'm curious how much extending the battery warranty to 16 years would cost me.

 

[onlinespending]

I think it's worth pointing out that the upgrade from 40 kWh to 60 kWh, vs. the upgrade from 60 kWh to 85 kWh is perhaps an easier decision and one that gets you more "bang for your buck".

+ with the 40-to-60 upgrade, you go from 160 ideal miles to 230 miles. The 60-to-85 takes you from 230 to 300 ideal miles. While both 70 mile upgrades, the 160 to 230, represents a 44% increase, where as the latter is an increase of 30%. And regardless of whether you have the 60 kWh or 85 kWh battery pack, the mile range between 160 - 230 will always be more "traveled" than the range from 230 - 300, since in order to travel 275 miles in a trip, you need to first travel 200 miles on that same trip (i.e. you'll get more use out of the 160 - 230 mile range than you will the 230 - 300 mile range)

+ 40-to-60 upgrade provides you with a 0.6 second improvement in the 0-60 time. Whereas the 60-to-85 upgrade provides you with just an additional 0.3 improvement.

+ 40-to-60 upgrade provides you with the Supercharger hardware, whereas the 60-to-85 doesn't provide you with any additional benefit here (at least hardware wise)

+ Top speed (while not all that important for practical purposes) increases from 110 mph to 120 mph when doing the 40-to-60 upgrade. That's a 10 mph or a 9% increase in top speed. The 85 kWh battery provides just an additional 5 mph top speed or a 4% increase.

Now to be fair, you can also claim that the $10k upgrade from 40-to-60 represents a 20% increase in cost (already factoring in the federal tax credit). While the 60-to-80 $10k upgrade is just a 17% increase in cost. But in terms of absolute dollars, there seems to be more benefit going from 40 to 60 vs. 60 to 85.

 

[jerry33]

I think it's worth pointing out that the upgrade from 40 kWh to 60 kWh, vs. the upgrade from 60 kWh to 85 kWh is perhaps an easier decision and one that gets you more "bang for your buck".

The only thing you missed is that given the same use, the 85 kWh battery will have less degradation than the smaller batteries.

 

[onlinespending]

The only thing you missed is that given the same use, the 85 kWh battery will have less degradation than the smaller batteries.

Thanks for endorsing the smaller battery packs! Because given the "same use" between all 3 packs, it's obvious you would only need the smallest pack. Presumably you'd only get the largest pack if you actually plan to drive the car more frequently and for longer trips, thereby accelerating its degradation through more frequent charge cycles.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Don't forget the warranty difference. Consider matching your typical annual driving distance to the usage implied by the warranty.

 

[ModelS1079]

Don't forget the warranty difference. Consider matching your typical annual driving distance to the usage implied by the warranty.

There is a lot of talk on the forum about battery degradation and the warranty. The warranty is really for battery malfunction, not degradation. I read the warranty right before clicking FINALIZE (great moment, by the way), and I can't recall any mention of degradation. I was told by Tesla (not a high-level specialist) that the battery is warrantied not to lose more than 30% of charge over 8 years (or the 100K mi for 40kWh, 125K mi for 60kWh if you hit that mileage before 8 years). And it should be obvious, but none of these batteries is warrantied for more than 8 years. No matter how far your drive. I drive 15K-18K/year - something funny about how that expires my warranty right about 8 years anyway. The 85kWh warranty only really helps those who drive well over 18K/year. If anyone has better/expanded info on the battery warranty, please post - thanks.

 

[chrisn]

I would expect the 40 pack to have less-than-linear range compared to the 85, particularly over time. The expected "duty cycle" for a smaller pack is that you will be using much more of the SOC window in typical use--- more extended range charges, more case where you range down to near empty. This has wo related implications:

1. Knowing this, TM may use a more conservative SOC windows on smaller packs, leaving a less than linear percentage of nominal max capacity available for use; and
2. Just the chemistry of batteries implies that a battery running from 100% to 20% SOC (smaller pack) versus 80% to 40% SOC (big pack) is just going to last longer in terms of capacity degradation.

 

[Sacrament055]

FYI, I asked the rep at the Oak Brook IL store about swapping the 40Kw batter at a later date and she said they've been told they plan to offer future upgrades so upgrading to the 60Kw in a few years is in the plans but the upgraded version will not come with the supercharger.

 

[ModelS1079]

I bet any upgrade will have the potential for supercharge hardware. So remember I said that in five years...

 

[dsm363]

FYI, I asked the rep at the Oak Brook IL store about swapping the 40Kw batter at a later date and she said they've been told they plan to offer future upgrades so upgrading to the 60Kw in a few years is in the plans but the upgraded version will not come with the supercharger.

I'd buy the battery pack so can see yourself using now and in the next few years in case you can't upgrade and gain Supercharger access if that's important to you.

 

[Rifleman]

I talked on the phone last night with Brian from the Chicago store about setting up a test drive for my wife. During the call, I asked if he knew if people who need to finalize before the EPA numbers on the 40 and 60 packs are available will be given a chance to change their selection if the final numbers to not meet their needs. He did not know the answer, but promised me that he would find out, and will email or call me when he knows. Once he gets back to me on this, I will pass it along to everyone else. This is actually becoming a big issue for me, as they are sending out finalization emails at a much faster rate than I expected, and I will most likely need to finalize before we know what the 40 will actually do.

 

[dsm363]

I talked on the phone last night with Brian from the Chicago store about setting up a test drive for my wife. During the call, I asked if he knew if people who need to finalize before the EPA numbers on the 40 and 60 packs are available will be given a chance to change their selection if the final numbers to not meet their needs. He did not know the answer, but promised me that he would find out, and will email or call me when he knows. Once he gets back to me on this, I will pass it along to everyone else. This is actually becoming a big issue for me, as they are sending out finalization emails at a much faster rate than I expected, and I will most likely need to finalize before we know what the 40 will actually do.

Hopefully they'll get back to everyone before they make you lock your order in but you can probably guess at what the ranges will be now. The EPA rating was about 88% of the 300 mile 55mph Tesla range and standard mode is 85% of that so around 75% of the 300 mile range if the math is correct. That would put 40 kWh pack at 119 miles and the 60 kWh pack at around 172 miles but like the Motor Trend test, driving faster with AC and up hills at further chip away maybe down to 100 miles. I'd probably take away an additional 10-15% as a safety/reserve buffer (bad weather or unexpected side trip).

Try and pick a pack that easily fits your needs in standard mode, not range mode. There's nothing wrong with using range mode when you need it but if you're picking a pack where you need range mode on a daily basis, you should probably upgrade to the next pack.

 

[Sacrament055]

I'd buy the battery pack so can see yourself using now and in the next few years in case you can't upgrade and gain Supercharger access if that's important to you.

My current thinking is that the 40Kw pack meets my current needs (work commute is 45 miles round trip) and we'll drive our gas car for long trips so the $10k premium for the 60Kw pack doesn't seem necessary for me but I like to know that down the road when my battery degrades I can upgrade.