2017 Q4 Deliveries

[mrdoubleb]

S+X should hit 100k this year and judging by how crazy good Q4 has been so far, I think it will. So 26k+ for the big boys as we need that much to get to 100.

For model 3 I am in the 1500-2000 camp on deliveries and hoping for exiting the year at a 1k+/week production rate.

I've changed my vote and went up 1 category to 28-29k.

Based on the last few weeks, I think 27,000 S/X and 1,500 M3 should be realistic. And, at the risk of being high on Christmas cakes and sweets, I'll also raise my M3 production rate prediction to 1,500+ per week.

I am really encouraged by the continuous issuance of invitations to configure, thousands of VINs registered on a regular basis (and an increasing number at that!), the flow of M3s in & out of "the parking lot" and that Taiwanese supplier report. None of that alone is super hard evidence, but all of it together is very hard to ignore.

 

[barcsikb]

When can we expect the real numbers? on which date?

 

[rypalmer]

When can we expect the real numbers? on which date?

IMO: tomorrow.

 

[Starno]

IMO: tomorrow.

After market close

 

[Pluto]

IMO: tomorrow.

Sounds like you're right. I've been disappointingly refreshing this page all day: Investor Communication | Tesla Motors

 

[Reciprocity]

27000 S/X
2300 or so model 3 delivered, 4000 produced with 1000+ in the last week.

 

[Troy]

My delivery estimates:

30,910 Model S & X
1,870 Model 3
32,780 Total

 

[schonelucht]

For what it is worth : insider EV estimates 13 455 S/X for the quarter (no estimate yet for the 3). Europe we know deliveries are going to be very close to 10 000. Add in 4000 for Asia and we should be at 27 500 without any Model 3. That pretty much guarantees a new record quarter.

For Model 3 my number is the same as @Troy partially because I assume he used the same process as I did : count how many delivered VINs above 2000 were reported and how many undelivered VINs below 2000 were reported, extrapolate between both and then subtract known Q3 deliveries.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

For what it is worth : insider EV estimates 13 455 S/X for the quarter (no estimate yet for the 3). Europe we know deliveries are going to be very close to 10 000. Add in 4000 for Asia and we should be at 27 500 without any Model 3. That pretty much guarantees a new record quarter.

For Model 3 my number is the same as @Troy partially because I assume he used the same process as I did : count how many delivered VINs above 2000 were reported and how many undelivered VINs below 2000 were reported, extrapolate between both and then subtract known Q3 deliveries.

I see that your earlier estimate was 27,800 for total deliveries. Your new estimate of close to 29,500 is quite a jump.

What do you think caused your earlier estimate to prove conservative?

 

[cranker2k]

The one factor that was amended after the Q2 delivery number miss was the number of cars enroute for delivery. So if the delivery report does not not include latest weekly production count for Model 3, then the number of transient cars contain a breakdown of how many are Model 3s will help on guessing the production count.

 

[Starno]

Total - 29 830

13930 - Model X
13560 - Model S
2340 - Model 3

Close enough on the global result

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla beat 80% of voters' estimates.

 

[EinSV]

Close enough on the global result

Nicely done -- 29,830 v. 29,870 -- you missed by only 0.134%.

May your predictions on future share price be as accurate!

 

[MartinAustin]

Nicely done -- 29,830 v. 29,870 -- you missed by only 0.134%.

May your predictions on future share price be as accurate!

The number will be adjusted during the ER in February. Historically it climbs by about 0.2%. So... 29,929