2017 Q4 Deliveries

[luvb2b]

there must be some confusion in the polls. the poll asks for 'total deliveries' is my interpretation, not model s/x deliveries.

i model s/x deliveries and see what everyone else does for model 3.

assuming 5700 vehicles went to china, i get 26,800 for model s/x deliveries. i assume inventory draws and reduction of in-transit vehicles offsets any decline in vehicle production.

for model 3 i estimate about 2000 deliveries, based on the way vins are progressing. we still have 2 weeks left in december.

26,800 s/x + 2,000 3's = 28,800 total vehicle deliveries.

i believe there is modest downside risk to my s/x estimate due to production cuts, and some upside risk to the 3's due to the speed of production and 2 weeks remaining in december.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Revised estimate:

28201
14700 S
11500 X
2001 3

Was it the 1,800/week comment that prompted your revision?

 

[EinSV]

Was it the 1,800/week comment that prompted your revision?

Basically, yes. I haven't focused much on S/X lately and those comments caused me to go back and look at what Tesla said about S/X at Q3 ER and they said "about 100,000" for the year in the Q3 letter. That's a little "soft" so my WAG is that increased sales from inventory and strong European sales v. reduced production in Nov/Dec means about 26K S/X delivered, around 99K for the year.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Basically, yes. I haven't focused much on S/X lately and those comments caused me to go back and look at what Tesla said about S/X at Q3 ER and they said "about 100,000" for the year in the Q3 letter. That's a little "soft" so my WAG is that increased sales from inventory and strong European sales v. reduced production in Nov/Dec means about 26K S/X delivered, around 99K for the year.

Makes sense. I was surprised by your initial Model S estimate; thank you for the revision.

The key point at which our estimates now diverge is Model X. I'm okay with that.

 

[schonelucht]

We don't know if they kept the reduced rate throughout the quarter.

Actually we do. Elon said in the conference call that S/X production will not be back up until next year. Actually only later in the year.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Actually we do. Elon said in the conference call that S/X production will not be back up until next year. Actually only later in the year.

He also said Model Y would not be built on Model 3 platform... only to change his mind next quarter... so EM changes his mind.

Tax credit debacle both in US and Norway may have pulled forward some demand which may have forced Tesla to reverse that decision.

 

[schonelucht]

Tax credit debacle both in US and Norway may have pulled forward some demand which may have forced Tesla to reverse that decision.

No. Those remarks came in beginning of November. Telsa had excellent visibility on US and Norwegian market evolutions already.

 

[Reciprocity]

Actually we do. Elon said in the conference call that S/X production will not be back up until next year. Actually only later in the year.

I know what they said on the call but I am confused as to why. IF demand is there, and tax credits will be phased out in large part next year with only a small credit left in for 1 or 2 qtrs in 2019, then Tesla is going to want to pump as many vehicles of every type into that pipeline as possible, which might also mean starving some of the foreign markets of S3X vehicles in the 1H of next year. Maybe its all tied to model 3 ramp, because that is where the massive volumes will come from, but I dont see why they wouldn't run 24x7 with 3 shifts on every line starting today until mid next year or longer. Demand should remain high because nothing has really changed

 

[schonelucht]

I know what they said on the call but I am confused as to why.

Getting off topic here, but the reason given was labor shortage. Now why is there a labor shortage? Maybe HR missed the beat? Or is the Model 3 just taking more labor than planned because various bits and pieces of the assembly automation aren't yet up and running? There is also a throw away sentence by Elon when he was discussing that suggested Fremont workers were moved to the Gigafactory and there are only so much that will agree.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I know what they said on the call but I am confused as to why. IF demand is there, and tax credits will be phased out in large part next year with only a small credit left in for 1 or 2 qtrs in 2019, then Tesla is going to want to pump as many vehicles of every type into that pipeline as possible, which might also mean starving some of the foreign markets of S3X vehicles in the 1H of next year. Maybe its all tied to model 3 ramp, because that is where the massive volumes will come from, but I dont see why they wouldn't run 24x7 with 3 shifts on every line starting today until mid next year or longer. Demand should remain high because nothing has really changed

I was surprised as well. My best guess: Tesla is trying to liquidate all Model S/X inventory before a major redesign. Also, labor shortage.

 

[Reciprocity]

I was surprised as well. My best guess: Tesla is trying to liquidate all Model S/X inventory before a major redesign. Also, labor shortage.

Yeah I get it, but my point is that they should want to build inventory going into next year. It also seemed that they purposely simplified the options for S/X and included more stuff in the base for this very reason. Wheels could be swapped, even after they arrived at the delivery site. All I know is that my local service center is pretty small and they have approx 10 loaners that are a mix of S/X 100D or P100D.

I think I kind of already figured it out. Its a numbers game where they want to maximize total count as a goodwill measure to their customers and the only way to do that is with a model 3 ramp. Model 3 ramp also helps cash flow more because of the terms. Also, no ramp means death, so its like the least risky way to go at this point in the 1-200k US deliveries target. Sure they could pump out as many of every car they can, but its much less risky to make sure Model 3 ramps to 5k then 10k next year. Nothing else really matters and nothing else would be better for the Tesla brand overall. Delivering as many model 3s next year as possible is like a huge advertising campaign where Model 3s will be everywhere and everyone will be getting rides from fiends and family. Demand is going to be off the charts and you dont want people saying.. I want one but I cant get one because Tesla is not a real car company yet. This will mater once you get past the first half million or so because the next big group of people arnt going to just wait 6 months or a year.

A bull on twitter made a great point that the Model Y is going to be much smoother because its based on the 3. Even if they do go with FWD, they have suppliers they trust and they have the expertise now. Y really could start shipping by the end of 2019 and the ramp will be 2x faster. I was also thinking they should do a $5k reservation to almost limit the reservations to a realistic number while also giving them a massive free loan.

 

[doctoxics]

Unlikely that Tesla will shut down production last week of quarter-end. If things are going well, maybe first week of January. Pics/videos/articles on Fremont show increased activity. Should increase some more in the coming days/weeks.

Not sure where, but one employee source said that the shut-down would start December 23rd. There are so many threads here and elsewhere on Model 3, that it would take me hours to find that source, but I believed it. It would be important to know if this source is wrong and Tesla will continue production through the holidays.

 

[Reciprocity]

Not sure where, but one employee source said that the shut-down would start December 23rd. There are so many threads here and elsewhere on Model 3, that it would take me hours to find that source, but I believed it. It would be important to know if this source is wrong and Tesla will continue production through the holidays.

23rd until the end of the year? Didnt they shut down in Feb this year for 10 days.. or am I miss remembering that.

 

[Johann Koeber]

13,000 X
14,000 S
1,000 M3 (probably more than that)
sum: more than 28,000

= good quarter

I wonder if they will hint on:
1. # of Semi reservations
2. # of roadster reservations
3. rate of M3 production
4. anything about energy

Or will we have to wait till second week in Feb.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

15,000 Tesla Model 3 Configuration Invites? (Customer Report) | CleanTechnica

 

[bambam4171]

I was surprised as well. My best guess: Tesla is trying to liquidate all Model S/X inventory before a major redesign. Also, labor shortage.

That crossed my mind as well. But as our secret contributor to the interior refresh pointed out this is slated for Spring/Summer, not Q1

 

[SteveG3]

25,915 S & X together

3,715 Model 3

 

[ValueAnalyst]

25,915 S & X together

3,715 Model 3

I think that's the highest Model 3 guesstimate so far... hmm... Our total lines up very closely though.

 

[larmor]

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[ggr]

Elon Musk on Twitter

I believe that is the number of Boring Company hats shipped... not Q4 Tesla deliveries.