Batteries are quoted in KWh because they are energy storage devices. PV installations are quoted in KW because they are energy production devices. If your PV array is sized to produce 10 KW max when in full sun light, and you store the energy it produces during 1 hour at that power in your PowerWall, you've banked 10 KWh of energy.
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Batteries are quoted in KWh because they are energy storage devices. PV installations are quoted in KW because they are energy production devices. If your PV array is sized to produce 10 KW max when in full sun light, and you store the energy it produces during 1 hour at that power in your PowerWall, you've banked 10 KWh of energy.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Some of what he's learned is likely applicable to the NCA chemistry they are using for vehicles.
Indeed, there may be many outside of TMC unable to distinguish between announcements about solar "roofs" and solar "panels". In fact some people may think today's announcement is about solar roofs for cars rather than homes. So share price reaction may have been developing more slowly today than might have been expected.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I'm not assuming any of the things you listed.
Annual production capacity at G2 is 1GW, per the 10-K, of which everyone here should keep a copy on their night stands.
I understand there's an option to ramp it up further, but I don't see electricity generation segment as a top priority for Tesla in the near term.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Im not an analyst but isn't the 10-K backward looking? I agree that Electricity Generation segment via panels was not a top priority, but i believe solar roofs, being much more profitable might be. I mean, why the F would they go through the trouble they have to date if they didnt intend of ramping production to capitalize on demand? They literally bought a company that specializes in the process of automating manufacturing processes and not everyone at Grohmann specializes in auto manufacturing.
Do we not think they have built machines to make these tiles and the integrated panels? I mean what the heck are we doing here if they cant climb this mountain, how the heck are they going to build a machine so complicated that it can build smaller machines that in turn drive us all around town without even requiring us to touch the steering wheel. Why even release a solar roof if they arent intending to sell the heck out of it.
$81.1M also accounts for AP 2.0 revenue from Q4 cars as well which they had previously not booked?
racer26
Active Member
I'm sure they do intend to ramp and scale it. You have to start somewhere, and initial capacity of Buffalo only supports around 150k roofs/year.
That means that any reasonable pricetag that would satisfy Elon's assertion of it being a no-brainer just doesn't add up to much more than the noise in the TA revenue stream. Especially once Model 3 is rolling. They will scale, that's why GFs 3-6 are coming. But for now, the roofs don't have the volume to play much more than a cursory role to the bottom line.
FredLambert
Member
"...This was partially offset by $26 million in warranty reserve for the Takata airbag recall and equipment impairment charges"
(somewhat ambiguous)
The warranty remedy in the Takata PO/contract may be limited to the supply of a replacement, non-defective part.
Takata may seek bankruptcy protection from it creditors.
racer26
Active Member
Based on what? We know almost nothing, other than that they're glass, and contain panasonic derived solar cells.
Where is the tempered glass produced? At Riverbend by Tesla or elsewhere by a third party?
jhm
Well-Known Member
Full-cycle is broken in at least two ways. First, proven reserves are more than sufficient until such time as oil is removed from the energy markets. So there is no need to explore for new oil. This is the first way in which EVs have already disrupted the oil industry. They have made the concept of replacing reseves obsolete. It's far cheaper to build a Gigafactory than to find new oil.
Secondly, as oil demand declines in oil producing, net import countries like the US and China, these countries can switch to becoming net exporters. The issues for domestic producers in these countries are different than they are for oil exporting countries. Specifically, domestic producers will want to defend domestic market share from imports especially as domestic demand falls. So the costs of exporting are to be avoided if possible. So if full cycle includes the cost of exporting, that does not apply well to the situation that US producers find themselves in.
So the full cycle cost is breaking down, and Tesla very much is a contributor to these structural changes, even those the current volume of EVs is at a scale too low displace much oil. But Tesla's trajectory, nevertheless, is altering expectation about the value of reserves and global trade in oil. Specifically, US oil producers must keep the domestic price of crude below $50/b to hold onto domestic demand. In about 4 years the US could be a net exporter of oil, and the prospects of competiting in an export market is not as attractive as the domestic market.
I'm happy to take this up in the Shorting Oil thread. Just reply there.
fwiw, I had noticed the upload we all watched had been put there by the group at MIT that hosted Dahn's talk. I think this is suggestive that the request to take the video down came from someone (like Dahn or Tesla) that will likely do the same if any additional uploads are made.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Who exactly was the group that hosted the talk?
I think that we should contact the group, or put an add in the mit paper to see if someone who attended would be willing to talk to us on a google hangout, about the contents of the missing segment.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Hi Fred - great work with Electrek!
I'm also in the camp that it's way too early to be speculating about Solar Roof's cost/profitability.
One thing I keep in mind on the electricity generation side of things is that new players swarmed in very quickly with solar panels and I don't see why that would be any different now.
Once Gigafactory 2 ramps up beyond 1 GW, Solar Roofs may show profit, but that's not in 2017, 2018, or maybe not in 2019.
Generally speaking, I see Solar Roof similar to Apple Pay: there to support the ecosystem and widen the moat, but not a huge profit generator itself. I hope that Elon proves me wrong.
Even when I look at it from a mission statement perspective, I see Tesla Energy prioritizing utility-scale stationary storage over Powerwall or Solar Roof.
Hope this is helpful!
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erthquake
Active Member
If they're going to go for profitability over quantity of installs, like they are with their grid-scale products, I would guess cost will be somewhat on high end of traditional roofing materials. I did a quick check on tile roof costs for So Cal. Tiles only cost for a 2400 square foot roof ranges between $8-$11.50/sq. ft. Full install costs including removal of the old roof would be about $12-$18/sq. ft.
If Tesla prices their roof less than this, I will be pleasantly surprised.
Edit: Just figuring consumer cost. No idea on production cost.
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