2015 Q4 discussion thread for delivery numbers

[mrdoubleb]

Feeling the same here; I'm not even certain that they have the capacity to deliver that many cars right now.

Well, if that is true, this is a screw up on multiple levels. I can understand the Model X ramping difficulties due to lack of parts - Tesla has been very vocal about this throughout the year, so it should come as no surprise. However, they "always" said they expected a steep ramp to a few thousand X this year and the majority next year.

May have been just me, but that always translated to a significant Model S ramp as well, here is why: the original guidance was 55k of S + X combined. If Model S stayed flat to 2014, that would only be 31k, meaning 24k Model X which was surely never promised. So if X was "always" supposed to be only a few thousand in 2015, Model S had to ramp to around 50k.

At the same time they announced lowering guidance to 50-55k in the Q2 ER, they also announced that they planned to produce 12k and deliver about 11.5k in Q3. So clearly, at that point they projected delivering the missing 17k-22k cars in Q4. A few thousand Model X notwithstanding, that means the S was supposed to ramp as well.

So, as Q1, Q2 and Q3 went according to plan, unless you interpret the last ER projections as guiding for up to 10k Model X in 2015, they surely have planned to significantly ramp Model S in Q4 as well. And as we haven't heard about any S production difficulties lately, if they are on plan, they should deliver that at the very least.

I know I am waaaay overthinking this.

 

[Benz]

It would be fantastic if they indeed could deliver those 1,500 Tesla Model X SUVs in November/December 2015. Let's hope that they will be able to do that. But then they still would have to be able to deliver about 15,500 Tesla Model S sedans as well. I don't want to spoil the party but I think that it's a big jump from 11,580 to 17,000 in just one quarter, to be honest.

That would be an increase of almost 47% compared to Q3 2015 delivery total !!!

Would be awesome though, but he let's be realistic.

 

[hobbes]

Well, if that is true, this is a screw up on multiple levels. I can understand the Model X ramping difficulties due to lack of parts - Tesla has been very vocal about this throughout the year, so it should come as no surprise. However, they "always" said they expected a steep ramp to a few thousand X this year and the majority next year.

May have been just me, but that always translated to a significant Model S ramp as well, here is why: the original guidance was 55k of S + X combined. If Model S stayed flat to 2014, that would only be 31k, meaning 24k Model X which was surely never promised. So if X was "always" supposed to be only a few thousand in 2015, Model S had to ramp to around 50k.

At the same time they announced lowering guidance to 50-55k in the Q2 ER, they also announced that they planned to produce 12k and deliver about 11.5k in Q3. So clearly, at that point they projected delivering the missing 17k-22k cars in Q4. A few thousand Model X notwithstanding, that means the S was supposed to ramp as well.

So, as Q1, Q2 and Q3 went according to plan, unless you interpret the last ER projections as guiding for up to 10k Model X in 2015, they surely have planned to significantly ramp Model S in Q4 as well. And as we haven't heard about any S production difficulties lately, if they are on plan, they should deliver that at the very least.

I know I am waaaay overthinking this.

Not overthinking, I see it exactly the same way.

50,000 S+5,000 X they might have believed to deliver for 2015 after Q2 (although they did not state that distribution) going to 50,000 S + 500 X is my guess.

 

[NigelM]

Well, if that is true, this is a screw up on multiple levels.

I wouldn't go as far as phrasing it like that. I'm guessing that they originally anticipated an X ramp to deliver a few thousand cars this year but knew that they'd have to balance delivery capacity with that ramp being contingent on final testing, suppliers, component availability etc.

So if X was "always" supposed to be only a few thousand in 2015, Model S had to ramp to around 50k.

That number probably hinges on the success of the referral program. Question is: would Tesla have increased delivery capacity assuming they have 17,000 fillable orders in Q4?

....they surely have planned to significantly ramp Model S in Q4 as well. And as we haven't heard about any S production difficulties lately, if they are on plan, they should deliver that at the very least.

Model S ramp above 1,200 per week? Who knows.

I know I am waaaay overthinking this.

Perhaps, or maybe I am.

 

[FredTMC]

Not disagreeing with you, but those would have to be Model Ss; the X Sigs are spread around the country.

Yup. Specifically for the MXs, the ones outside CA (Florida for example) get built in first week or so of December. Then it takes a week(s) to transport to FL Service Center and prep delivery for late December.

I imagine we will probably also see "direct deliveries" (cars directly dropped to owners homes). We've seen this in the past.

Bottom line is I except a big wave of MXs to get delivered in the last few weeks of Dec. Seems to always work this way due to transit lead times.

- - - Updated - - -

Well, if that is true, this is a screw up on multiple levels. I can understand the Model X ramping difficulties due to lack of parts - Tesla has been very vocal about this throughout the year, so it should come as no surprise. However, they "always" said they expected a steep ramp to a few thousand X this year and the majority next year.

May have been just me, but that always translated to a significant Model S ramp as well, here is why: the original guidance was 55k of S + X combined. If Model S stayed flat to 2014, that would only be 31k, meaning 24k Model X which was surely never promised. So if X was "always" supposed to be only a few thousand in 2015, Model S had to ramp to around 50k.

At the same time they announced lowering guidance to 50-55k in the Q2 ER, they also announced that they planned to produce 12k and deliver about 11.5k in Q3. So clearly, at that point they projected delivering the missing 17k-22k cars in Q4. A few thousand Model X notwithstanding, that means the S was supposed to ramp as well.

So, as Q1, Q2 and Q3 went according to plan, unless you interpret the last ER projections as guiding for up to 10k Model X in 2015, they surely have planned to significantly ramp Model S in Q4 as well. And as we haven't heard about any S production difficulties lately, if they are on plan, they should deliver that at the very least.

I know I am waaaay overthinking this.

You aren't overthinking it

This is exactly how I interpret it. Q4 is a ramp for MS as well as MX.

Specifically tesla told us last ER that MX ramps late in Q4

Also, we have had some evidence of MS production running at 1200/week. this matches well with Tesla mentioning in last ER that the MS body line was improved.

Boy, tomorrow is gonna be "interesting". I'll make some popcorn

 

[NigelM]

Then it takes a week(s) to transport to FL Service Center and prep delivery for late December.

Well that would make a lot of people round here very happy; but realistically it's more approaching 3 weeks door-to-door and then only if Tesla switches back to full truck delivery rather train/truck. I'm not saying it's impossible, just that there's enough doubt in my mind to make me feel a little bearish on the delivery guidance.

 

[FredTMC]

Well that would make a lot of people round here very happy; but realistically it's more approaching 3 weeks door-to-door and then only if Tesla switches back to full truck delivery rather train/truck. I'm not saying it's impossible, just that there's enough doubt in my mind to make me feel a little bearish on the delivery guidance.

ya. Very challenging no doubt. Tomorrow will be very "exciting"

last year Nigel we had this same discussion. You were RIGHT and I was WRONG.
I reman an optimist this time. You're the Realist.

 

[pGo]

I just checked VIN assignments for last week and is steady at 1200/week. So for sure the pace has picked up and stayed higher in the past month or so. Now question is if this number is enough to meet 50k.. And if it goes higher/lower from here or stays flat for the rest of the quarter.

 

[schonelucht]

There is now enough data to estimate with reasonable certainty that Tesla delivered between 1000 and 1200 cars in Europe in October. As far as we know, these are all model S cars. This compares to 1155 cars in July '15. One caveat is Denmark. I expect/hope they surprise us with a huge surge because of the changing incentives in 2016. Since my estimate does not account for such a surge, I am fairly confident there is more upside to the given range than downside risk.

 

[Benz]

Is it possible that Tesla Motors will have produced about 15,000 (or maybe even more) Tesla Model S cars, and that a significant portion of those are still in the pipeline?

 

[anon]

I just checked VIN assignments for last week and is steady at 1200/week. So for sure the pace has picked up and stayed higher in the past month or so. Now question is if this number is enough to meet 50k.. And if it goes higher/lower from here or stays flat for the rest of the quarter.

This worries me because these VINs will be delivered in December. There therefore isn't much time left until the end of the year. December-delivery VINs have been issued for a while now and some recent orders have been told mid-December for delivery, so I would guess that Tesla has at most 2.5 delivery weeks' worth of VINs still to issue for this year. This means that a steep increase in assignment rate may be needed right now if they are to make guidance by the end of the year...although of course they might be able to compensate from inventory or partially emptying the pipeline to foreign countries.


I have a related question: does the factory close for Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Veterans' Day, and Christmas Day?

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Is it possible that Tesla Motors will have produced about 15,000 (or maybe even more) Tesla Model S cars, and that a significant portion of those are still in the pipeline?

Yes - a big part of the challenge is scaling up deliveries, not just production. This is a particularly big problem at the end of the year when a lot of people are away for the holidays. That was a big part of the reason why P85D deliveries were lower than expected last year - although they had resolved production issues in time for the end of the quarter, they were unable to deliver a significant number of cars at the end of the year.

 

[anon]

Another important point: Tesla is already assigning VINs for European deliveries as far away as February, so the current VIN assignment rate need not be directly related to the expected delivery rate for the rest of this year.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...Delivery-Update/page279?p=1223442#post1223442

 

[pGo]

Another important point: Tesla is already assigning VINs for European deliveries as far away as February, so the current VIN assignment rate need not be directly related to the expected delivery rate for the rest of this year.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...Delivery-Update/page279?p=1223442#post1223442

I expect the VIN assignments to drop to somewhere around 800-1000 cars in a week from now. The reason being the last bump is already seen now with the most recent assignments. This bump at the end or referral program is not huge and it seems like the effect of higher rate was visible in the past few months. Not sure what will drive higher reservations from here on as some demand is pulled forward due to referral.

 

[Benz]

I expect the VIN assignments to drop to somewhere around 800-1000 cars in a week from now. The reason being the last bump is already seen now with the most recent assignments. This bump at the end or referral program is not huge and it seems like the effect of higher rate was visible in the past few months. Not sure what will drive higher reservations from here on as some demand is pulled forward due to referral.

Not if the orders for a Tesla Model S keep coming in, in increasingly higher numbers (for whatever reason).

 

[Benz]

There you have it, mentioned in the Q3 2015 Shareholder Letter:

"In Q4, we plan to build 15,000 to 17,000 vehicles, and deliver 17,000 to 19,000 vehicles, which will result in 50,000 to 52,000 total deliveries for the year."
"We expect that Model X will achieve steady state production capacity during Q1 as we do not foresee any significant
production, design or supply chain constraints that will impact this plan. Looking ahead, we still remain highly confident of
average production and deliveries of 1,600 to 1,800 vehicles per week for Model S and Model X combined during 2016."

They are expecting a lot of orders in 2016 for both the Tesla Model S and the Tesla Model X.

 

[pGo]

There you have it, mentioned in the Q3 2015 Shareholder Letter:

"In Q4, we plan to build 15,000 to 17,000 vehicles, and deliver 17,000 to 19,000 vehicles, which will result in 50,000 to 52,000 total deliveries for the year."
"We expect that Model X will achieve steady state production capacity during Q1 as we do not foresee any significant
production, design or supply chain constraints that will impact this plan. Looking ahead, we still remain highly confident of
average production and deliveries of 1,600 to 1,800 vehicles per week for Model S and Model X combined during 2016."

They are expecting a lot of orders in 2016 for both the Tesla Model S and the Tesla Model X.

So they expect to continue at or above 1200/week - (at some point including MX as well). That's a positive surprise.

 

[NigelM]

ya. Very challenging no doubt. Tomorrow will be very "exciting"

last year Nigel we had this same discussion. You were RIGHT and I was WRONG.
I reman an optimist this time. You're the Realist.

Well, this time around the situation is kinda reversed. I was wrong about guidance being lowered, but I'll still be blown away completely if they actually can deliver 17,000 cars in Q4.

 

[chickensevil]

Well, this time around the situation is kinda reversed. I was wrong about guidance being lowered, but I'll still be blown away completely if they actually can deliver 17,000 cars in Q4.

You and the rest of the market, I hope.

Based on the numbers they published, and what we have seen the wait times push out to. It looks like for at least this quarter they are going back to prioritizing deliveries of a region. As I am going through the new car buying process all over again, I can help give whatever quirks and insights I see. Ordered Oct 18, Confirmed Oct 25th, 5YJSA1E23FF114557 vin number, East Coast delivery, and I was told "You will have your car before Christmas". For whatever that is worth!

An interesting conversation I had as it relates to VINs with one of the service techs was that apparently some customers have been allowed to get a VIN assigned but not actually get a car produced for them. Such that when they finally get the car made, they have a super low VIN number but it was actually made recently. He mentioned confusion about a customer complaining about their "camera" and he saw his VIN and thought, oh yeah, I'll take a look at the camera, bring it in, (thinking it was about the backup camera), only to find out that the car actually had the autopilot hardware in it.

Based on what we have seen from the Norway numbers, there is very clear batching of the VINs and they seem to go in order. What we don't know is how many inventory cars get made and how they get moved around. I also know that they now have loaner cars at my store that will basically never be sold. I got a P85+ recently that was around 1 year old without the autopilot hardware in it, and the guy said that if I tried to buy it from him he couldn't sell it. So I would expect some VINs to be forever lost into the void for that reason. Otherwise I think the VIN risks have been pointed out pretty well in the thread and it does make it tough to pull good numbers.

The regression chart is likely the best hope of speculating on deliveries based on VINs since somewhere in the middle is likely to be a number that we can sit on.

 

[FredTMC]

Well, this time around the situation is kinda reversed. I was wrong about guidance being lowered, but I'll still be blown away completely if they actually can deliver 17,000 cars in Q4.

Yeah. It'll be quite an achievement if they do

 

[larmor]

Just need some MX in the showrooms, and orders will be flying in...

There you have it, mentioned in the Q3 2015 Shareholder Letter:

"In Q4, we plan to build 15,000 to 17,000 vehicles, and deliver 17,000 to 19,000 vehicles, which will result in 50,000 to 52,000 total deliveries for the year."
"We expect that Model X will achieve steady state production capacity during Q1 as we do not foresee any significant
production, design or supply chain constraints that will impact this plan. Looking ahead, we still remain highly confident of
average production and deliveries of 1,600 to 1,800 vehicles per week for Model S and Model X combined during 2016."

They are expecting a lot of orders in 2016 for both the Tesla Model S and the Tesla Model X.