Also, is there a tracker like this but for Q4? Model S Order Delivery - Google Sheets
There is one. In the same file.
I see that average VIN assignment has been following lately:
Weekly avg VIN assignment: 9/28 - 10/22: 1063
Weekly avg VIN assignment: 9/1 - 10/22: 1193
Weekly avg VIN assignment: 8/24 - 10/22: 1143
Weekly avg VIN assignment: 8/17 - 10/22: 1202
I have put VINs based on the dates assigned and then averaged out on a weekly bases. So, with this method you are looking at 1200/week VIN assignments. Not sure how this will look for the next month, but that's something important I consider.
Also, keep in mind that not all VINs assigned are to be delivered in Q4.
At 1200/week for 12.5 weeks, you are looking at 15000 cars production. Take this with a grain of salt as VIN assignment may not go along with production output though in the long run, you may be able to find a match.