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I think it'll happen eventually and probably sooner than most people think. This is what Tesla wants and the world needs.....other car companies making electric cars.
It will be a minimum of 5 years before we see a realistic competitor. There will be some to make a try at a decent competitor but I guarantee that they will fail in some important metric. Tesla is superior in so many ways but here are some critical ones: Range, quickness, price, user interface, customer service, over the air updates, and lastly Supercharging.
I expect that there will be a few plug-ins with a smaller battery pack that will be very good that are made before 5 years but they will always be hampered by a gas engine.
I suspect more plug in hybrids to follow in the next 2 years, but I doubt we'll see a Model S competitor before that time.
Excellent point. I agree. I believe that traditional automobile manufacturers will want the battery technology to come down a whole lot more than absolutely necessary though. What Tesla Motors was able to accomplish at somewhere between $180-to-$240 per kWh, traditional automobile manufacturers may not attempt until sufficient quantities of batteries are available at $18-to-$24 per kWh. And that will take a long while, indeed.But, do not assume that they _wouldn't_ make a long-range BEV. Just remember that since they have ICEs they don't have to be aggressive with BEVs, so they'll be waiting for better, cheaper cell tech.
Rumor has it that GM may follow a route similar to that which made the Chevrolet Volt and outgrowth of the Cruze platform. Thus, the rumored 200 mile range electric car would be a modified version of the Sonic platform, possibly to be named the Bolt. Maybe it would be fully electric, but there is a strong chance it too would be a plug-in hybrid. If that's the case, then an improved battery pack, used in a smaller car, would be enough to manage perhaps 70-to-100 miles of electric range. It would again be a 2+2 seating configuration, and would have limited cargo capacity, and would probably debut at a $35,000-to-$40,000 price point.From all indications, LG will have a higher density pack in a couple of years (which is the basis for GM 200 mile car). Many OEMs have already designed their new platforms to be made as ICE or plugin or EV. So it is not a stretch to see more 200+ mile EVs in a couple of years.
Exactly. The Germans are making short-range BEVs, an EREV and PHEVs.
But, do not assume that they _wouldn't_ make a long-range BEV. Just remember that since they have ICEs they don't have to be aggressive with BEVs, so they'll be waiting for better, cheaper cell tech.
We Hear: Slew of German EVs Will Battle Tesla Model S
Source: Motortrend
Rumor has it that GM may follow a route similar to that which made the Chevrolet Volt and outgrowth of the Cruze platform. Thus, the rumored 200 mile range electric car would be a modified version of the Sonic platform, possibly to be named the Bolt. Maybe it would be fully electric, but there is a strong chance it too would be a plug-in hybrid. If that's the case, then an improved battery pack, used in a smaller car, would be enough to manage perhaps 70-to-100 miles of electric range. It would again be a 2+2 seating configuration, and would have limited cargo capacity, and would probably debut at a $35,000-to-$40,000 price point.
I think it is plain that the EPA will not allow electric cars to be rated at 200+ miles of range unless they have at least a 60 kWh battery pack. Their energy efficiency ratings for electric vehicles included a presumed loss by way of induction during charging. Their range results seem to consistently equal around 90% of what should be actually possible with a full charge, for an electric car that is fully charge.
So a car that operates at ~320 Wh per mile is rated as if it uses ~380 Wh per mile... Then it's range is calculated as if you use that higher rate using only part of the battery pack. Essentially, this means that if you want to attain a certain EPA range rating, you must be sure to include enough battery capacity to have an actual range of 20%-to-25% more than your actual target. That's why I believe the Tesla Model ☰ will have a battery pack with an estimated 250 mile range, and an EPA range rating a bit lower, maybe 225 miles instead.