The ER letter mentioned a possible "macroeconomic shock" and so did Elon on the call. I wonder if they're being cautious about the overall condition of the markets and are bracing themselves for a possible "shock" in the near future. Anyone have thoughts on this?
I have had the pleasure of watching many of Elon's interviews and CC the past several years. I can tell you with confidence that Elon has mentioned many times (in 2012) that tesla will be able to meet demand in 2013 of delivering 25,000 model S if no economic recessions or catastrophe such as earthquakes, tsunami, war, etc. occurs.
If I remember correctly, one of the reasons why Tesla did a capital raise in 2013 as the stock was rising above $90s was to hedge their position against possible future catastrophes. When Elon made those statements, I take it as him being conservative and honest, because there is no way any company can meet quotas under a severe economic catastrophe or recession, hence you should always consider that risk whenever you invest in stocks, gold, real estate, etc..
Look at what the severe winter storms did to the eastern part of the US earlier this year, it practically slowed down production, service, housing and GDP for weeks. As a result of the winter vortex (as I think it was called...), the Feds and economists were unable to make a logical read on unemployment, housing or GDP data. However, as it turned out, that particular "climate change" catastrophe only slowed our economy down by 1q and the US is considered to be in good shape currently, especially with last Quarter's GDP data, in which we beat estimate by a whole %. China is also beating estimates, so do the math.
If Elon expected 25k deliveries under normal economic conditions, and we ended up delivering 35k for 2013, then would it be reasonable to expect a better than expected projection of 60-70k for 2014, and 100k in 2015 if the economy remains the same? As an investor I would expect so..
With the current complications of world macroeconomic events, it would be virtually almost impossible to pinpoint when an economic catastrophe or recession could occur, hence, this is noise and language you should ignore IMO. But for caution, you should always follow world news and invest conservatively because a sinkhole may engulf Tesla's gigafactory within 24 hours of it being completed, I give that probability a .0000000000001% chance of happening. How I derived that number is basically a guess.. in short, IMO you should invest conservatively, if you're afraid of macro or micro economic catastrophe, buy the stock, hold long and ride it out (that's if you're confident the company will sustain long term), otherwise, you can be wiped out if you own options if catastrophe drags out..
By reading news feeds from various sources and comments from this community, I hope the information we give/receive will allow us to make informed choices, good luck to all.