1,000,000% in flux! Forums are filled with stories (mine included) of Estimated Delivery Date (EDD) shifting up, back, up again, day-for-day slips, then back multiple months. Once a VIN is assigned, it's generally more locked-in, but nothing is guaranteed. Logistics schedules or transport damage could cause a phone call on delivery day saying "We have to reschedule". So pretty much I'd say:
- Take anything before the VIN assignment with a HUGE grain of salt.
- Anything between VIN assignment and Delivery Schedule with a grain of salt.
- Once delivery scheduled, it's most likely gonna be right, but things could happen.
On another forum, someone referred to it as the "EDD Monkey" who just randomly hits keys to assign dates. It's a pretty accurate description. Ignoring the scheduling aspect, the delivery process is usually pretty fast and smooth. It'll all be worth the wait though, once you get the car, you'll love it! And the pain of the estimated delivery date process will fade into memory.
Basically, no matter how much someone tries to micro manage / pay attention to delivery, it basically goes like this:
1. Order (complete all order tasks, and Ideally put "cash" as payment type even if you plan on financing as long as you know you will be approved for financing / have no credit issues)
2. Ignore EVERYTHING you see in your account about "estimated dates". They mean absolutely, positively, 100000000000% nothing. Do not expect to get notified if these "estimated" dates change, DO expect them to change. As I mentioned, the BEST thing to do is completely ignore your order after you place it, ignoring all EDDs etc.
3. Do not pay attention to anything about your order until you are assigned a VIN. THEN and ONLY THEN should you look at estimated dates as anything other than a fairy tail. Once you have a vin assigned, if you put "cash" to speed the process along but intend to finance, THEN AND ONLY THEN (AFTER you are assigned a vin) should you go work out your financing.
If you intend to do outside financing, apply for that.
If you intend to finance through Tesla, AFTER you get a vin, contact Tesla and tell them " I know I said I was going to pay cash but I changed my mind, I want to finance through you, can you open up the application for me? Once you work out who you will be financing through if financing, tell tesla and tell them the amounts of your financing / down payment etc.
4. Schedule delivery when they make that available, keeping in mind that they are not going to "hold the car for me for a week while I am out of the country?" or anything like that.
5. Take delivery (on one of the few dates they make available when they open up delivery slots
Thats pretty much how anyone should expect it to go.
I could point out thousands and thousands and thousands of waiting room posts of people "discussing" their estimated dates moving around, and consternation around that, when the best thing to do is simply "order and wait, and not think about your order till you get a vin" anything else is just hanging out / discussion points etc.