With version 9, how many years ahead is Tesla now?

[gearchruncher]

And the new super chargers take 15 minutes.

Current superchargers can output 140kW, yet no Tesla will accept 140kW, and they all taper off dramatically.
How does a new supercharger let an old car charge faster? We're limited by batteries, not chargers.

Porche needs 800 volts to charge the car they showed last month in Monterrey.

So what? Why is ~400V better than ~800V? They'll both kill you, the Porsche one will just suffer less IR losses doing it

 

[gearchruncher]

Those AP promises were made when Tesla used Mobileye. As we all know Mobileye got kicked out in 2016 and Tesla had to essentially start from scratch to develop EAP...on their own.

Oh come on, Tesla absolutely mentioned higher levels of AP1 functionality all the way back to the AP1 unveil. Onramp-to-offramp was promised twice before AP2 was even a thing (once in the 8.0 sneak peak release notes, once in the original unveil). Same with traffic light recognition.

Sorry, I assumed this was all a discussion about AP2, EAP, FSD. I totally agree that HW1 doesn't do what Tesla said it would. Generically, when people pull out the "Mobileye ditched Tesla, that's why it took so long" line, they are referring to the totally false idea that Tesla thought mobileye was on-board when they announced AP2 and this went away after that announcement. The most simple fact that they shipped AP2 hardware 10 days before they announced it (thus meaning they knew 100% what hardware was in there) is forgotten by most people.

It's also unclear that the halt in AP1 has anything to do with the Mobileye breakup. Unless Tesla had an agreement with Mobileye to develop X features and Mobileye went back on that, then this isn't on that. Mobileye claims they stopped with Tesla partially because Tesla was pushing the boundaries of the technology, so it appears that Tesla made promises Mobileye was never on board with.

 

[jelloslug]

Ahead of whom on what front? You talk about many fronts, but since you mention v9 widening the gap, you must mean autopilot since that is where v9 is catching up (v9 did nothing to advance battery technology you mentioned for example). I say catching up because Tesla autopilot is very much behind Waymo technology for example, or Uber or other self driving efforts. If you mean how far ahead in terms of Level 3 only and sold to the public (vs. just offering a ride share service like Waymo), then not that much ahead of say Audi Level 3. Tesla is ahead in taking risks, absolutely, but that hasn't yielded as much lead as you'd think - it absolutely motivated the rest of the industry to catch up though.

Where can I test drive one of the Waymo or Uber cars?

 

[gearchruncher]

Where can I test drive one of the Waymo or Uber cars?

You can ride in a Waymo car in Chandler, AZ. They are straight self driving cars, so there is no "Test drive." Uber got out of the business after the fatal accident in Tempe, AZ.

Where can you test drive a Tesla autonomously driving itself for more than 100 seconds?

 

[Raechris]

We all love Elon for being a visionary. People like this often see utopian versus reality. Sometimes vision does not become reality as the world is an imperfect place. Automobiles would not be moving electric (MB killing all deisel after billions of investment) and we would not have auto steer without Elon. I vote visionary.

 

[gearchruncher]

Sometimes vision does not become reality as the world is an imperfect place.

Then Elon shouldn't take money for FSD if he isn't 100% sure they can ship it. There's a difference in the world between buying a product and investing, and FSD is sold as a product.

90% of Tesla's problems would go away if they didn't take money for something that doesn't exist yet (and often never comes to exist).

 

[whitex]

Where can I test drive one of the Waymo or Uber cars?

Arizona. Early Rider Program – Waymo

 

[jelloslug]

Arizona. Early Rider Program – Waymo

So they are not for sale?

 

[chillaban]

Having to apply, get selected, and presumably agreeing to terms more restrictive than buying a car, recruiting “up to hundreds” of customers?

That’s hardly the same thing as buying a production car.

 

[gearchruncher]

So they are not for sale?

Nope, neither are Teslas that can self drive.

Elon has now said FSD will need HW3, which isn't for sale for "4-6 months." He said HW2 was good enough in the past, but that didn't come true. And then revised that to HW2.5, but that was untrue. And sure, he says that you can upgrade for free, but why trust him on that after he told you HW2 and HW2.5 were good enough. HW2 can't even do a dashcam. How do you know they won't realize they need another camera or radar that they can't retrofit?

Again, Tesla has a FSD demo video from 2016 which we basically know to be doctored, and which took hundreds of attempts to create. That's all we know about Tesla's FSD program. Waymo, Cruise, and Uber all demonstrated FSD out in public, which says a lot. Saying you can buy a Tesla that can drive itself, all it needs is a software update, so they are farther ahead than anyone is highly disingenuous (and completely untrue since Tesla admits it needs new HW to do it). Zero evidence Tesla is ahead. Zero evidence that learning in the real world is more productive than simulation (which Waymo does, and actually tells you if you failed without hurting someone).

None of this means any company is anywhere close to FSD.

 

[Zooomer]

What Elon did with FSD and the BS video was 1000000x worth than the stupid tweet he got fined for. I can't believe they went after him for complete BS reason but gave a full pass on actually taking people's money for a product he knew didn't exist.

(by 'they' I mean gov)

 

[whitex]

What Elon did with FSD and the BS video was 1000000x worth than the stupid tweet he got fined for. I can't believe they went after him for complete BS reason but gave a full pass on actually taking people's money for a product he knew didn't exist.

(by 'they' I mean gov)

Smart CYA legal speak on the order page which strictly interpreted gives Tesla until the end of time to deliver, hence you cannot hold them responsible. Not now, not next year, not in 100 years. At some point all those AP2 cars will turn into dust, making FSD deliver a moot point.

 

[Burnt Toast]

Smart CYA legal speak on the order page which strictly interpreted gives Tesla until the end of time to deliver, hence you cannot hold them responsible. Not now, not next year, not in 100 years. At some point all those AP2 cars will turn into dust, making FSD deliver a moot point.

I agree, I don't think AP2.0 or 2.5 will ever be capable of FSD. I think with AP3.0 which will most likely include new sensors (like rear radar, new cameras), it's definitely possible. (Albeit a keep your hands on the wheel scenario, maybe AP4.0 will be true level 5). I just feel sorry for those people who bought FSD on release. What happens to their $4k when they come to sell it? Pissed into the wind.

 

[gearchruncher]

Smart CYA legal speak on the order page which strictly interpreted gives Tesla until the end of time to deliver, hence you cannot hold them responsible. Not now, not next year, not in 100 years. At some point all those AP2 cars will turn into dust, making FSD deliver a moot point.

"All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver"

The above has been on the Tesla website for two years. They don't ever have to deliver FSD software. However, if they ever do, and it can't run on HW2, or HW2.5 without a hardware upgrade, they are very much open to liability. If they offer upgrades for free they can probably avoid it since there will be no damages. If they charge for the hardware (or even look like they are), I'm sure the lawyers will be happy to call them and ask them why they are able to deliver FSD on some cars but not cars made while that statement was on the website.

 

[henderrj]

Then Elon shouldn't take money for FSD if he isn't 100% sure they can ship it. There's a difference in the world between buying a product and investing, and FSD is sold as a product.

90% of Tesla's problems would go away if they didn't take money for something that doesn't exist yet (and often never comes to exist).

90%? I'm all for hyperbole but, really? And remember, nobody buys it thinking that it's available when they bought it. And everybody, mostly, knows that it may or may not ever come. People don't part with their money for silly reasons. Okay, they do, but I don't think they do when they're buying cars. Mostly.

 

[gearchruncher]

And remember, nobody buys it thinking that it's available when they bought it.

Ask people that bought it in 2016 right after they saw the FSD video what time frame they thought it would be on, what happened when they asked for a refund, and how they feel now that they are 2/3 of the way through a 3 year lease.

And everybody, mostly, knows that it may or may not ever come.

Except Tesla. They are willing to continually state that all cars have the hardware to do it. Show me a place on their site that they indicate a purchase of FSD is speculative.

 

[whitex]

"All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver"

The above has been on the Tesla website for two years. They don't ever have to deliver FSD software. However, if they ever do, and it can't run on HW2, or HW2.5 without a hardware upgrade, they are very much open to liability. If they offer upgrades for free they can probably avoid it since there will be no damages. If they charge for the hardware (or even look like they are), I'm sure the lawyers will be happy to call them and ask them why they are able to deliver FSD on some cars but not cars made while that statement was on the website.

Unfortunately you are not correct. Even if FSD comes out for newer cars they can keep saying they are still working on FSD for older cars I have a P85D which Tesla to this day says is 691hp capable, however they are not offering P85D owners a free upgrade to P100D which can actually achieve near that number. After a whole lot of BS from J.D. and Elon about EV power being "different", a settlement in Europe forced Tesla came clean that the car can only produce 463hp, which is nowhere near the advertised 691hp. Not as big of a problem for Tesla, because by delaying this admission until they already had a more powerful car on the market, admitting their old flagship doesn't do what they said didn't hurt any new sales. Oh, and I paid $25K for that option, not just $3K like FSD.

 

[whitex]

And remember, nobody buys it thinking that it's available when they bought it. And everybody, mostly, knows that it may or may not ever come.

When I was buying our 3rd Model S, Tesla sales clearly was pushing EAP and FSD, telling us how EAP will be on par with AP1 (which we also had) by December 2016 and how they already developed FSD, just need to validate and get government approval. So I challenge your point that everyone who bought it knew they were lying.

 

[MathijsKok]

I done one of those demo rides from Uber. And as so many others have reported was underwhelmed. It was not self driving under unknown conditions. It had to stay on a strict route, would not overtake and would hesitate all the time. Highway driving in my Tesla is simple better.

For now Tesla is the only company that is able to get partial autodrive to hundreds of thousands of a drivers. There IS no competition. Waymo and Uber don't sell even partial auto drive. They actually sell no hardware to private. The moment they start to do is the moment we'll start to compare. I drove 1300 Km in a very long night this weekend. Close to 1200 of that was on autodrive with me just sitting and hitting the steering wheel a zillion times. I call that self driving, what do you call it?

 

[henderrj]

When I was buying our 3rd Model S, Tesla sales clearly was pushing EAP and FSD, telling us how EAP will be on par with AP1 (which we also had) by December 2016 and how they already developed FSD, just need to validate and get government approval. So I challenge your point that everyone who bought it knew they were lying.

You make an excellent point. Nobody tells a lie better than a person who believes it to be the truth. I think that's where the problem lies, these people really believe.

It is astonishing how thoroughly Tesla employees believe the company is changing the world. The problem is they think it's perfect in every way. Obviously that can never be correct. I really don't think they were lying, they were just telling what is not the truth, because they believed it was the truth.

It does get Tesla into a lot of trouble but I have to say that I'm amazed, and continually impressed, when I talked at length with a Tesla employee. It's rare to find one who doesn't believe that Musk is driving a change that will save Humanity. Or at least something close to that. So, you are correct that they lied to you. I did forget that particular promise that was floating around. (It didn't bother me so alas, shallow person that I am, I completely forgot about it.)

Main point? I don't think they knew they were lying to you.