Why FSD will never fully work on current cars

[nvx1977]

I was expecting the remaining features (recently bundled under FSD package) was all going to be part of EAP, since it all requires driver attentiveness. Now it seems like the definition of FSD has been diluted. While Tesla markets the feature subject to regulator approval, I think the real challenge is getting it to work better. Nav on AutoPilot is still really flaky, as is summon and autopark.

The distinction between EAP/AP and FSD should have been level 2 vs level 4/5 autonomy, IMO.

That said, I would be really happy to own a well-functioning level 2 autonomous car. For that, I feel like Tesla has a couple of years to go.

 

[Mod3forMe]

No, I don't think that Tesla will add a package above FSD. What would they even call it, "FFSD, Full Full Self-Driving"? The fact is that the name "Full Self-Driving" already implies the highest level of self-driving. It would be silly to add a package above it. Instead, Tesla can just keep adding new features to the existing FSD package. So if Tesla does reach L4/5 autonomy, they can just add that to the existing FSD package and probably raise the price too. Heck, it's probably why they call it FSD in the first place so that it can encompass everything they do in self-driving from here on out. FSD is an umbrella term that Tesla can use for all future "self-driving" features from basic self-driving all the way to L4/5 autonomy.

It would be nice if it works that way, but if they find L4/5 needs a major hardware upgrade that will need to create new level as they would not be able to retrofit older cars (for practical or Financial reasons) and they have commitments to customers associated with FSD.

As for what they call it? Enhanced Full Self Driving?

 

[Mod3forMe]

I was expecting the remaining features (recently bundled under FSD package) was all going to be part of EAP, since it all requires driver attentiveness. Now it seems like the definition of FSD has been diluted. While Tesla markets the feature subject to regulator approval, I think the real challenge is getting it to work better. Nav on AutoPilot is still really flaky, as is summon and autopark.

The distinction between EAP/AP and FSD should have been level 2 vs level 4/5 autonomy, IMO.

That said, I would be really happy to own a well-functioning level 2 autonomous car. For that, I feel like Tesla has a couple of years to go.

I tend to agree they are looking good to deliver on level 2 in a few years - I just wish Elon would stop claiming they are a few months away from level 4/5

 

[Tezlah]

How bout wiping down your cameras before you begin to drive. Seems simple enough

Driving in any amount of rain or snow quickly distorts the rear camera to the point it is no longer useable. Now, can FSD operate effectively without this camera? I’m not sure

 

[Knightshade]

It would be nice if it works that way, but if they find L4/5 needs a major hardware upgrade that will need to create new level as they would not be able to retrofit older cars (for practical or Financial reasons) and they have commitments to customers associated with FSD.

One of those commitments is to upgrade their hardware if it's needed for FSD.


At time of the 2->2.5 transition:

we still expect to achieve full self-driving capability with safety more than twice as good as the average human driver without making any hardware changes to HW 2.0. If this does not turn out to be the case, which we think is highly unlikely, we will upgrade customers to the 2.5 computer at no cost

As it turned out neither 2 nor 2.5 were sufficient (and thus no need to do the 2->2.5 upgrade for anyone)... but there IS a need to upgrade to HW3.

Hence why they're now telling FSD customers they will be upgraded to HW3 for free once its out later this year. (30 minute swap- not clear yet if it requires going to an SC or if rangers can do it)

No reason to think if they find they need HW4 to do it that won't also be free to FSD buyers.

Worst case scenario if they decided they can't deliver what they promised with FSD (which is level 5 for everyone who bought before this past week at least) no matter the hardware is they get a full refund after having gotten the HW3 upgrade free, which I'm fine with.

 

[woodisgood]

Yeah, I do think the Model 3 as it has been sold up to this point will not be able to fulfill the Tesla Network dream from a hardware perspective, perhaps even with HW3.

The Y may clue us in on how big the gap is.

 

[Mod3forMe]

One of those commitments is to upgrade their hardware if it's needed for FSD.

The issue is FSD is not defined. Currently it just includes some EAP functions and being able to see stop lights and stop signs and the wording leaves things very open to what it could be in the future. There is nothing stopping Tesla from saying FSD is full functional a year from now with the features I just listed, but adding other autonomous driving features under a new name later on.

Given they have already played the redefine what FSD and EAP are in the past I don't think this is a silly idea that it could happen in the future. That is a bit of a digression though.

At any rate my point was I can't see my model 3 being able to drive it's self on it own with out some hardware changes. Maybe the blame game will come in as Tesla will say the cars can do it, by regulators will block it. Tesla will blame the regulators, but the regulators will have good reason to block it as the hardware is not safe enough.

 

[Knightshade]

The issue is FSD is not defined.

Except it is, for everyone who bought for most of the time it was for sale.

This system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver's seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.
All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don't say anything, th ecar will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if you nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban steets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs, and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

That's what I expect them to deliver. If they can't do it on current HW I expect either a free HW upgrade (which I'm getting with HW3) or, if they decide they just can't do it period, a full refund.

Currently it just includes some EAP functions and being able to see stop lights and stop signs

This is also wrong. You left out the largest promised future feature in the new version- automatic driving on city streets.

and the wording leaves things very open to what it could be in the future. There is nothing stopping Tesla from saying FSD is full functional a year from now with the features I just listed

Except there is for anyone who bought prior to a week or so ago- since they promised them more than that.

At any rate my point was I can't see my model 3 being able to drive it's self on it own with out some hardware changes. Maybe the blame game will come in as Tesla will say the cars can do it, by regulators will block it. Tesla will blame the regulators, but the regulators will have good reason to block it as the hardware is not safe enough.

There is no regulation preventing a driver-supervised version of FSD right now, today, in all 50 states. (Basically L2 FSD- where the car can totally drive itself but the driver is required (due to regulation concerns) to remain alert and "in charge")

In many states there's nothing preventing higher levels right now, today... but I can understand why Tesla might not want to roll out a higher level FSD that has to disable itself as you cross between states.

 

[Nocturnal]

Driving in any amount of rain or snow quickly distorts the rear camera to the point it is no longer useable. Now, can FSD operate effectively without this camera? I’m not sure

Why not? AP can. I've only had AP shut off twice. Once when I had an inch of wet snow on the front of my car and another after driving for a couple days in super salty wet roads.

 

[Daniel in SD]

There is no regulation preventing a driver-supervised version of FSD right now, today, in all 50 states. (Basically L2 FSD- where the car can totally drive itself but the driver is required (due to regulation concerns) to remain alert and "in charge")

I argue that this is not legal in California because it’s exactly the same thing as testing an autonomous vehicle. Testing in California can only be done by the manufacturer and requires training, disengagement reporting, and increased insurance coverage.

 

[Knightshade]

I argue that this is not legal in California because it’s exactly the same thing as testing an autonomous vehicle.

Except it's not of course. Autonomous means the car, not the driver, is responsible for driving the car.

FSD requiring driver control and attention is just an L2 system that works more places. You don't need permission to drive an L2 car in CA.

 

[N5329K]

Anybody with 2.x who bought FSD gets the HW3 upgrade for free, so that's a non-issue.

Unless actual FSD (whatever that ends up meaning) requires 6.xx. In essence, Tesla is saying "I'd gladly give you FSD someday for your money today."

Buying it now is a generous vote of support for Tesla, though.
Robin

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I feel like obscured cameras are the least of our worries in terms of the FSD system "working". At least with the FSD system off, you (and more importantly, everyone else) will be safer.

FSD requiring driver control and attention

We've beaten this dead horse over and over again here, but I can't see how this is going to be anything less than an unmitigated disaster.

I mean, more power to the people who want this, but personally I find using Autopilot in anything other than uncomplicated wide open freeway situations to be more stressful than not using it, simply because I am required to pay constant attention and that takes a lot of bandwidth - may as well be driving.

Similarly, I don't understand what the advantage of having FSD is if you have to be constantly driving in the background (which is required for contextual awareness and flawless takeover when the system fails - which by definition as an L2 system it is guaranteed to do (otherwise it would be L3 or L4)).

It's like when I was a kid and played Pole Position without putting any quarters in.

 

[Mod3forMe]

Except it is, for everyone who bought for most of the time it was for sale.




That's what I expect them to deliver. If they can't do it on current HW I expect either a free HW upgrade (which I'm getting with HW3) or, if they decide they just can't do it period, a full refund.





This is also wrong. You left out the largest promised future feature in the new version- automatic driving on city streets.




Except there is for anyone who bought prior to a week or so ago- since they promised them more than that.





There is no regulation preventing a driver-supervised version of FSD right now, today, in all 50 states. (Basically L2 FSD- where the car can totally drive itself but the driver is required (due to regulation concerns) to remain alert and "in charge")

In many states there's nothing preventing higher levels right now, today... but I can understand why Tesla might not want to roll out a higher level FSD that has to disable itself as you cross between states.

All super good points. But I am the only one that finds it strange that the definition of FSD got less and less specific the closer it got to reality? The version you signed up for sounds great, the version they market now seems incomplete.

If I could get the contract that you have I would be much much more likely to sign up for it, though I still don't think the current cars have the hardware to do it.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Except it's not of course. Autonomous means the car, not the driver, is responsible for driving the car.

FSD requiring driver control and attention is just an L2 system that works more places. You don't need permission to drive an L2 car in CA.

And again I ask the question: Why doesn't everyone just do their autonomous vehicle testing on "Level 2" vehicles to avoid the regulatory requirements? At what point does driving "feature complete" FSD become testing of an autonomous vehicle? You can't say it becomes testing when the driver no longer needs to pay attention because the driver ALWAYS has to be pay attention while testing an autonomous vehicle (unless you have a license for driverless testing which only Waymo currently has).

 

[Petrlol]

I assume that most people here are aware that there is a bit of a difference between what Musk says is technically possible, and what is actually going to happen. I'll be happy with my FSD if I can turn on autopilot and it can for the most part drive me through the city, even if I have to hold the wheel and pay attention. Is that even close to what FSD is? Nope. Will I be happy with it. Yup.

If the worst case is I have to watch the road, and park the car myself at the grocery store, then great. Truthfully if it was FSD how many of you would actually not pay attention and take a nap for 2 hours on a car drive? Probably pretty close to 0...

 

[Knightshade]

And again I ask the question: Why doesn't everyone just do their autonomous vehicle testing on "Level 2" vehicles to avoid the regulatory requirements?

because none of them are trying to test or develop L2 systems- so that would be totally pointless.

A
At what point does driving "feature complete" FSD become testing of an autonomous vehicle?

You're the one confident Teslas way exceeds CA law, so it'd be your obligation to cite the law you think proves that.

What makes EAP legal in CA, but not the exact same thing that also stops at red lights and stop signs?

 

[Glamisduner]

I'll be happy spending 2k if only NoA improves with the new computer and software updates, and less nags for Auto Steer on the highway. Right now NoA hardly works at all in real world use cases.

 

[Mod3forMe]

I assume that most people here are aware that there is a bit of a difference between what Musk says is technically possible, and what is actually going to happen. I'll be happy with my FSD if I can turn on autopilot and it can for the most part drive me through the city, even if I have to hold the wheel and pay attention. Is that even close to what FSD is? Nope. Will I be happy with it. Yup.

If the worst case is I have to watch the road, and park the car myself at the grocery store, then great. Truthfully if it was FSD how many of you would actually not pay attention and take a nap for 2 hours on a car drive? Probably pretty close to 0...

If we had true self driving? I would sit in passenger seat and do work or watch a movie. We will get there one day. I suspect 10 years out yet.

 

[Knightshade]

We've beaten this dead horse over and over again here, but I can't see how this is going to be anything less than an unmitigated disaster.

I mean, more power to the people who want this, but personally I find using Autopilot in anything other than uncomplicated wide open freeway situations to be more stressful than not using it, simply because I am required to pay constant attention and that takes a lot of bandwidth - may as well be driving.

I've used it for thousands of miles on both that, and heavily congested, sometimes bumper to bumper, freeways.

And it's been almost universally fantastic and a huge destresser that made by daily drive 10,000 percent better.

it's literally the reason I bought a Tesla.

So YMMV I guess.