What is Tesla's upcoming 'under your nose' announcement?

[Yggdrasill]

It is of course possible to swap a battery in 1 minute, just as it is possible to refuel a car in 1 minute, but it just isn't going to happen.

For one thing, you will have to go out of your way to find a battery swap station, as there will (at best) be hundreds, not 120,000 like there are gas stations. When you arrive at the battery swap station, you might be fortunate enough that there's no line, but you still need to find the correct bay to park in, and park fairly accurately. You also need to roll the window up/down, choose the product you want, validate payment and get a receipt (maybe they chose to integrate most of the operations into the touchscreen, but many people would want a physical receipt - I doubt they have an integrated printer in the touchscreen). Once the battery is swapped, you need to pull away, and rejoin the traffic.

Also, I doubt we are talking about just one minute for a commercial battery swap station. There are a bunch of operations that need to be performed, and big unwieldy 700 lb chunks of metal to move around. I'd guesstimate at 2-3 minutes, and 5-10 minutes total (plus travel time).

When I fill gas, I need to do so about every 400 miles and it doesn't take longer than 5 minutes, unless I have to wait, which is equally possible at a battery swap station. It is after all a fairly simple operation.

1. No travel time, there's a gas station on every corner.
2. Park - 15 seconds
3. Get out, open filler cap - 10 seconds
4. Swipe card, type pin code - 30 seconds
5. Put in the nozzle, fill gas - 2 minutes
6. Return nozzle, close filler cap - 10 seconds
7. Get back in the car, fasten seat belt - 10 seconds
8. Start up the car and drive off - 20 seconds

That works out to about 3 minutes and 35 seconds. I'm usually not in a hurry, so I might take 4-5 minutes.

Edit: Also, what does that mean for regular battery swapping for Tesla? Well, you need to swap the battery approximately every 200 miles, so a battery swap needs to take 1 minute and 47.5 seconds to be as fast as filling gas. Also, there can never be travel time to get to a battery swap station, and there can never be a line.

Even so, I'm not ruling out that the announcement refers to regular battery swapping. Fuzzy math may become a trademark for Tesla.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

Maybe the car can be remote controlled (which is probably just a firmware thing), and by means of image processing the car auto-positions on the swapping place. I think CO has it right with using an automated guidance system for "landing" on the swapping place, kind of like for airplanes . Didn't Elon state already that the future was auto-piloting? This would fit very nicely into the overall concept.

 

[Kaivball]

Factory robots move on three axis + time with extreme sub millimeter and microsecond precision, and do so while being designed to last through tens of millions of discrete operations. A SuperSwapper would be a rack with rollers that moves up and down on a single axis. When it reached the battery under the Model S it would engage a simple jig to remove the bolts and fittings.

Once the jig was engaged all of the bolts and fittings would be removed simultaneously. The rack would lower itself, leaving the jig in place. When the rack reached the proper level it would roll the battery onto a roller equipped shelf off to either side (and possibly front and back as well). When the battery was on its shelf, a different jig would do whatever hookups are needed (cooling and power most likely) in order to properly charge and maintain the battery.

The rack would move to whatever level it needs to in order to get the swapped battery, roll it onto the rack, and raise back up to the primary jig. When in place, all fittings and bolts would be replaced simultaneously, and then remove the jig and reset itself so that the car could leave.

I am fairly confident I could build a crude device to accomplish this with materials purchased at Home Depot. But for inventory control I'd need to steal one of their scanners since they don't sell them to the public at Home Depot.

Edit: Just to be clear, this is a simple design. There are more advanced ones that would be needed to get to swap speeds of under a minute. My Home Depot version might take 5 minutes.

Edit2: Also, it would be best with the Hope Depot version if the car was in the exact right spot. Otherwise I need to integrate some cheep sensors and hook it all up to a computer, with some simple programming. I also need to adjust the position of the battery at the top, but that might be accomplished with rollers. Certainly for an optimum solution you would want to do some actual engineering on a more sophisticated system.

- - - Updated - - -

I guess if I wanted to be a real cheapskate and avoid buying sensors and moving the battery into position under computer control, I could just instead make sure the car was parked on rollers, then force it (gently) into the correct alignment with a jig.

Like I said, to,allow 24/7 operation, you will need humans as final quality control.

No way that this will be allowed by "robot only".

Our technology is not yet that advanced or stable to have fully automated, operator less battery swapping facilities guaranteeing 100% accuracy and doing the necessary quality and safety checks.

Have you been to the factory?

Tell me, are they doing robotic only battery installation?

Nope.

If they can't even do it in the factory (or don't do it in the factory) then we are still years away of having this kind of automated fantasy in the field.

I do not see Tesla building these Jiffy Lube type businesses around the world. The cost of real estate and low skilled labor to support does not fit into the plan, IMHO, 10k notwithstanding.

I am sure the 10k also stares that if a critical component supplier would ever go belly up overnight that it would shut down production for many months until a suitable replacement is found.
Only because something is in a 10k doesn't mean it will happen or will happen on a large scale.

 

[SteveG3]

on another thread I've posted a theory that I think accounts for the likelihood that the announcement is battery swaps, the skepticism about committing to rolling out battery swapping, and the existing and continuing investment in the SuperCharger strategy.

Proof of Tesla's plan for battery swapping - Page 11

be curious to see what you all make of it.

 

[deonb]

1. No travel time, there's a gas station on every corner.
2. Park - 15 seconds
3. Get out, open filler cap - 10 seconds
4. Swipe card, type pin code - 30 seconds
5. Put in the nozzle, fill gas - 2 minutes
6. Return nozzle, close filler cap - 10 seconds
7. Get back in the car, fasten seat belt - 10 seconds
8. Start up the car and drive off - 20 seconds

Ok, but I think we should give Elon the benefit here and not use the most efficient gas station. Let's use the "ARCO" experience instead.

1. first 3 are the same

4. Swipe card... what they don't take cards?? Slowly put card back in wallet while staring at the pump in utter disbelieve. 30 seconds.
5. Go to ATM. Withdraw cash. Do the math in your head about whether the 10c cheaper gas is really worth the $3 ATM fee. 2 minutes.
6. Go up to cashier, wait in line, put down a $60 deposit to unlock the pump. 3 minutes.
7. Put in the nozzle, drip-fill the gas at a painstakingly slow rate that makes you walk around the pump looking for a hand-crank - 5 minutes.
8. Go back to cashier to get $1.35 change. Wait in line again. Give up after 3 minutes and walk away begrudgingly.

9. last 3 are the same


Total time: 15 minutes.

That's the number to beat and still be believable.

 

[napabill]

Would you people stop it with the battery swapping! So far TM has barely managed to roll-out the National Supercharger grid, much less a National swapping infrastructure. Changing course to swapping makes absolutely no sense at this point, IMHO. Increased SC capability seems likely, but let's get the National grid rolling! I've got places to go, people to see.

 

[brianman]

So far TM has barely managed to roll-out the National Supercharger grid

You're being generous. I would call it "partial coast Supercharger grid". I count 6 locations in California and 2 on the east coast. Is the official page stale?
Supercharger | Tesla Motors

The superchargers might be real for people that pass through those locations, but for many of us they are still vaporware.

 

[spatterso911]

Ok, but I think we should give Elon the benefit here and not use the most efficient gas station. Let's use the "ARCO" experience instead.

1. first 3 are the same

4. Swipe card... what they don't take cards?? Slowly put card back in wallet while staring at the pump in utter disbelieve. 30 seconds.
5. Go to ATM. Withdraw cash. Do the math in your head about whether the 10c cheaper gas is really worth the $3 ATM fee. 2 minutes.
6. Go up to cashier, wait in line, put down a $60 deposit to unlock the pump. 3 minutes.
7. Put in the nozzle, drip-fill the gas at a painstakingly slow rate that makes you walk around the pump looking for a hand-crank - 5 minutes.
8. Go back to cashier to get $1.35 change. Wait in line again. Give up after 3 minutes and walk away begrudgingly.

9. last 3 are the same


Total time: 15 minutes.

That's the number to beat and still be believable.

Not trying to be argumentative deonb, but in CA, all ARCO stations I've ever visited use ATM either at the pump or a centrally located terminal and the fee is $0.35, not $3. Usually was always able to get in and out in under 7 minutes with premium unleaded, 15 gallons. Unfortunately I was generally always in a rush when realizing that I had to fill up, so I always noted how long it took to fill up. USA branded gas stations are the same, since they are also rebranded ARCO stations.

 

[SteveG3]

Would you people stop it with the battery swapping! So far TM has barely managed to roll-out the National Supercharger grid, much less a National swapping infrastructure. Changing course to swapping makes absolutely no sense at this point, IMHO. Increased SC capability seems likely, but let's get the National grid rolling! I've got places to go, people to see.

Napa, the post I linked is meant to addess this kind of reality check of what they are likely to do.

 

[deonb]

Not trying to be argumentative deonb, but in CA, all ARCO stations I've ever visited use ATM either at the pump or a centrally located terminal and the fee is $0.35, not $3. Usually was always able to get in and out in under 7 minutes with premium unleaded, 15 gallons. Unfortunately I was generally always in a rush when realizing that I had to fill up, so I always noted how long it took to fill up. USA branded gas stations are the same, since they are also rebranded ARCO stations.

I was being facetious - I've only been to an ARCO once and that was my experience. I know that can't actually be the experience for everyone as they would have been out of business by now.

I also see that they have a campaign now (at least in WA state) where ARCO is now taking Credit Cards, but haven't personally tried them since as they don't have much to offer for a Model S .

However, I filled in gas at Gare du Nord (downtown Paris) recently, and it was an even worse experience that probably took 20 minutes overall.

So I think 15 minutes is still the high-end of being believable (for whatever it is, which I don't personally think would be battery swapping. Simply doesn't compute with Elon's "throughout the country" and "under your nose" comments).

 

[hershey101]

So, the supercharger announcement is this week, does anyone have a guess as to what day? I'm guessing its probably Thursday.
Also, is pt. 5 next week? Do we have any evidence of this?

 

[aronth5]

Jiffy Lubes can't even change your oil in 5 minutes which is far, far simpler.

And the jiffy line type employee is exactly what you would attract.

Barely making minimum wage workers with very low skill levels.

Running 24/7 you have at least 5 two people teams.

This will present a new HR and people management problem they don't have today.

I just doesn't add up.

Agree
One item that I have not seen mentioned is either the requirement to have everyone get out of the car so it can be lifted allowing the robot to access the battery. I'm sure there may be alternatives to a lift but I wonder what Tesla's insurance company will feel about servicing the car with people in it? How fun would that be with kids in car seats, or in my case a daughter with a wheel chair! And of course a lounge to wait until the battery is swapped and then get back in.

Or, in the Jiffy Lube model, so everyone can stay in the car, an expensive option to build out enough sub ground space for the robot and space to handle the spare batteries. Feels way too complicated and expensive.

 

[inottawa]

"Supercharger announcement pushed to next week. Something else this week."

 

[FredTMC]

"Supercharger announcement pushed to next week. Something else this week."

so what is the announcement THIS week going to be?! For example, maybe it's 5th announcement or maybe it's not part of the trilogy of 5 announcements.

Thoughts?

 

[cdabel]

The rampant speculation may have changed the order of the announcements. But I'm just speculating....

 

[deonb]

so what is the announcement THIS week going to be?! For example, maybe it's 5th announcement or maybe it's not part of the trilogy of 5 announcements.

Thoughts?

Welll... since you asked. I always thought that the SuperCharger announcement and the "way to recharge faster than a gas station" announcement didn't make sense in the order in which they were planned.

Otherwise analysts would pepper him about the recharge announcement during the SuperCharger announcement.

This way around makes more sense.

 

[DonPedro]

Opportunistic capital raise?

 

[deonb]

Opportunistic capital raise?

Making a tweet which can be foreseen to raise the stock price, followed by an offering?

Big SEC violation. Not that they would do anything about it...

 

[jeff_adams]

Making a tweet which can be foreseen to raise the stock price, followed by an offering?

Big SEC violation. Not that they would do anything about it...

There is no way he could get in trouble for that tweet. Stock price could have gone down just as easily as up.

 

[vgrinshpun]

This week's announcement bumped SC announcement to the next week because it is linked with a real time event:

Upcoming Announcements - Page 2