-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
-
On today's TMC Podcast, we ask the question "What is the Tesla Cybercab?". Join us on YouTube live at 1PM and participate in the chat.
The range is clearly an issue for the Model X especially on Autobahn -with higher speeds. The bigger front will cost a lot of range, so I also hope they are delaying for doing this right and for the -often wished- bigger battery.
But- I'm with AR+Bonnie, it is not the only reason. Tesla told there are a lot of little details, to get the X to mass production and I also think there is long line:
New interior, Falcon Wings, Mirrors/Camera (legalization!), range, missing real-World dual-motor experience (thx to P85D beta testers), and so on - and all this with Elons need to make this third Telsa the best! ("The Model X is something that should exist.")
I still have my personal troubles with the delay, but reasons are out there -more then just one.
So cross fingers for Q3
Greets Earl
But- I'm with AR+Bonnie, it is not the only reason. Tesla told there are a lot of little details, to get the X to mass production and I also think there is long line:
New interior, Falcon Wings, Mirrors/Camera (legalization!), range, missing real-World dual-motor experience (thx to P85D beta testers), and so on - and all this with Elons need to make this third Telsa the best! ("The Model X is something that should exist.")
I still have my personal troubles with the delay, but reasons are out there -more then just one.
So cross fingers for Q3
Greets Earl
Last edited:
Indeed, they did release the Model S D, so I doubt there is anything inherently holding back the dual-motor or the Model X. There is probably a long list of smaller things that have added up and Tesla has been pretty bad in communicating and estimating. That said, I do remember comments from some Tesla designer or architect or another within the year that working on lessening the weight of the vehicle has been one thing they are doing - and we can probably see some of those gains in slimmer falcon wing door profiles in that silhouette photo that surfaced some time ago. So, it is - my guess - a mash of things, range, dual motor, falcon wings, rear-seat/convenience features etc.
As for a new battery option, I noted this in the Tesla blog about Roadster 3.0: "The Roadster 3.0 package applies what we've learned in Model S to Roadster. No new Model S battery pack or major range upgrade is expected in the near term." Obviously something demanded by either marketing or legal to curb unwanted wait for a new Model S battery based on the Roadster news, but if Tesla had a, say, 110 kW battery right behind the corner (or even, say, a new starter 70 kWh or somesuch), I doubt they would formulate it like that. Now, of course it doesn't mean they couldn't make such a battery exclusive for Model X in the beginning... I think it just seems a little less likely to see any new battery packs for Model X on launch, if Model S is not getting the same, as I'd think it would have benefits for Tesla to keep the batteries the same for the second generation.
Edit: Perhaps even the aero-upgrades for Roadster are a hint of things to come for Model X. Someone heard that the beta vehicles look nothing like the original prototypes, maybe that high and big face of Model X has also been receiving some of this aerodynamic love.
As for a new battery option, I noted this in the Tesla blog about Roadster 3.0: "The Roadster 3.0 package applies what we've learned in Model S to Roadster. No new Model S battery pack or major range upgrade is expected in the near term." Obviously something demanded by either marketing or legal to curb unwanted wait for a new Model S battery based on the Roadster news, but if Tesla had a, say, 110 kW battery right behind the corner (or even, say, a new starter 70 kWh or somesuch), I doubt they would formulate it like that. Now, of course it doesn't mean they couldn't make such a battery exclusive for Model X in the beginning... I think it just seems a little less likely to see any new battery packs for Model X on launch, if Model S is not getting the same, as I'd think it would have benefits for Tesla to keep the batteries the same for the second generation.
Edit: Perhaps even the aero-upgrades for Roadster are a hint of things to come for Model X. Someone heard that the beta vehicles look nothing like the original prototypes, maybe that high and big face of Model X has also been receiving some of this aerodynamic love.
Last edited:
But ... no bet? Sooo disappointed.
One (of many) New Year's resolutions.....Never, ever...ever.....bet against Bonnie:wink: I am up to a case of beer or wine from poorly placed 2014 bets
As to delays in model X: I would like to see one today, yesterday even better. However, IMO, there are multiple logical reasons for the delay. They can't make the Ss fast enough to satisfy demand. The S, especially the D gets them higher margins than what will be the initial margins on the X. The 'D' is the beta drivetrain for the X and if you are TM why not have the D out for a couple months, tweeking with a model that you already know? The beta testing on the D may result in deciding that a bigger battery pack is needed and the smaller 60 will not be made available for it.
Last edited:
killer_model_s
Member
Personally, I think it's a common misconception on this and other forums to think that the D was released as a test vehicle for the drive train of the Model X. I believe the D was released because Tesla is under pressure to release new products with the continued re-scheduling of the release of the Model X. Tesla already knows what the dual motor setup can and cannot do - it doesn't need much additional data and it's been testing it for a while now. If the Model X is to be released at the end of 2015, most of its engineering and specs are already in place. It's unrealistic to think Tesla will collect information on the D for the next 6 months and then incorporate that data into changes of the final Model X drivetrain design to be rolled out 3 months later. The timing does not make sense (to me).
I agree with this part. I doubt "D" release has too much to do with Model X. Model S D is probably right about on time, what is late instead is Model X. Had Model X been completed on time, it may have had been the first release of the dual motor system with Model S D following shortly afterwards, instead of the other way around now.
However, to me this suggests the issue may not be the dual motor drivetrain or its efficiency at all, but more Model X specific things like the doors, convenience features, etc. Some of that, of course, may have and probably has been weight loss and aero work, thus range related, but the dual motor system probably isn't the delay for Model X.
Of course we are all speculating.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Of course we are all speculating.
So true.
Tesla developed the D because they could, they launched the Model S 'D' because they could, it's good for business. Launching a whole new vehicle (Model X) is much more complicated than another 'S' variant; all the elements have to work together and without insider knowledge it's impossible to say what, if anything physical at all) has led to the 'X' delays. Let's also remember that Tesla has been production constrained up till quite recently and likely will still be somewhat supply constrained on certain elements (e.g.batteries) in the short-term.
I agree with those that feel that the D was released when it was, completely ready or not, as a real world trial run of the dual motors within an existing platform. Yes, I am sure that they exhaustively evaluated the dual motor set up, but anyone who has spent any time in R&D knows that there is no substitute to real-world large volume (i.e. thousands of miles) testing. The susceptibility of the original model S to road debris is a good example. They want to get the X out very soon, but why not get miles on the dual motor set up in the meantime in a vehicle that is otherwise well proven. This, not conspiracy theories regarding missed revenues or demand issues, is why the D was released in such a hasty manner. Elon has already made it very clear that pleasing Wall Street is not the primary, or secondary, aim of Tesla. Further, I do not know how he could possibly make it clearer that there is not a demand issue. The X is coming. The D is the thunder before the storm.
To the first question: can they "possibly"? YES OF COURSE because the engineers working for Tesla know a multitude of things that you and I know nothing about.
To the second question: NO OF COURSE NOT since Elon has stated multiple times that Tesla will not release a model with less than 200 miles of range.
There may have been a subtle hint in the D tweet. Elon said on a couple of interviews that the forums had broke the code on the D as Dual Motors, and that the other letter would have been obvious. I think it was intended to be X. Model X reservations holders were invited as well. When I made my Model X reservations in April last year, the Dual Motors were standard. Even the local store didn't realize that had happened they thought dual motors were an option on the X.
Given that, I think the original intent was the reveal the X and announce the dual motor Option on the Model S at the same time. When Tesla made the dual motor standard on the X, it was most likely in the plan as an option on the S to keep the platforms similar. If one looks at the last year, Tesla moved to "homogenize" the line to improve the output of the factory with fewer permutations (making sensors and fog lights part of the Tech Pack -- making the Red Calipers for the 85-D only). I think Tesla came to realize what all manufactures have; that is, it is not possible to have every option individual, and packaging is the only feasible way to go. Check the X site... dual motor and performance dual motor--sounds like the S85D and P85D.
For those reasons, I think once the Dual motor was engineered, the options for the S was planned with both due to be announced concurrently in October 2014. Something delayed the X reveal. So here we are.
Given that, I think the original intent was the reveal the X and announce the dual motor Option on the Model S at the same time. When Tesla made the dual motor standard on the X, it was most likely in the plan as an option on the S to keep the platforms similar. If one looks at the last year, Tesla moved to "homogenize" the line to improve the output of the factory with fewer permutations (making sensors and fog lights part of the Tech Pack -- making the Red Calipers for the 85-D only). I think Tesla came to realize what all manufactures have; that is, it is not possible to have every option individual, and packaging is the only feasible way to go. Check the X site... dual motor and performance dual motor--sounds like the S85D and P85D.
For those reasons, I think once the Dual motor was engineered, the options for the S was planned with both due to be announced concurrently in October 2014. Something delayed the X reveal. So here we are.
Last edited:
NigelM
Recovering Member
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
The other letter was assuredly "A" for Autopilot which was also widely speculated about. I'm fairly certain Elon even introduced autopilot by referencing the "something else" part of the tweet.
James Anders
Member
The big picture.
More than any other Tesla car - the Model X has to be near perfect. The Model S has had a few hiccups but in general has set the bar very high.
People will shortly forget the delays in the MX - but if the MX isn't just about 99.99% perfect, then that negativity will carry over to the Model 3 and that just can't happen.
So, spending the extra time to ensure near perfection is very wise.
-J
More than any other Tesla car - the Model X has to be near perfect. The Model S has had a few hiccups but in general has set the bar very high.
People will shortly forget the delays in the MX - but if the MX isn't just about 99.99% perfect, then that negativity will carry over to the Model 3 and that just can't happen.
So, spending the extra time to ensure near perfection is very wise.
-J
Tim Alguire
Member
Elon has said they could probably produce a handful of units now.. So yeah something is moving... Beta cars now... I am sure the have produced the final version of the car for testing and know what it looks like, smells like and how it performs... They are not showing us yet..
NigelM
Recovering Member
Well there are beta test cars driving around the bay area. Kind of amazing that nobody has snapped any 'spy-shots' yet. It's just a matter of time.
Canuck
Well-Known Member
I think Tesla would jump at a 90% perfection rate. That would mean that only 10% of MX's would require warranty repairs. However, that's probably still far too optimistic. I wonder what the warranty repair percentage is for the Model S? I'd guess close to, if not greater than, 50% have been into service for some warranty issue. The real issue is keeping those repairs to minor issues, and being able to address them to the customer's satisfaction.
Merrill
Merrill
I know you cannot believe hearsay from the Tesla folks at the showrooms but my wife went in before Xmas to buy me a gift and chatted with someone in the Corte Madera store and he said March for the ability to see the Model X.
