Well THIS is interesting....200K max

[ohmman]

And if someone else who has no money and desperately needs (not just selfishly wants) the tax credit would be shoved out of line if I get one, shouldn't I wait? I would. Or what if I take the car and not apply for a credit? How does all that work, oh you knowledgeable armchair tax lawyers?

Since it's not a tax rebate (like California's), but a tax credit, it's based on the manufactured vehicles. If you forego (or if someone doesn't qualify), it doesn't matter. 200k vehicles delivered in the US is where the cutoff begins (with the quarter end nonsense and ramp-down). California's rebate is part of a fixed pool, so electing not to receive that allows someone else to claim it.

I have written down some very loose notes on how I'd like to see the follow-up federal incentive written. The current incentive is poorly structured for many reasons.

 

[brucet999]

Since I just got a tax credit on my new 90D, if a M3 might be ready in 2.5 years, would I be eligible? Am I allowed multiple tax credits in three years? I think not. So even if owners of Ses and Xes are put in line before non Tesla owners, will that make much difference to the tax credit availability? Maybe to a few owners of over-three-year-old Model Ses.

And if someone else who has no money and desperately needs (not just selfishly wants) the tax credit would be shoved out of line if I get one, shouldn't I wait? I would. Or what if I take the car and not apply for a credit? How does all that work, oh you knowledgeable armchair tax lawyers?

The credit appears to be for the vehicle, not buyer.

Per Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D)
Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D)
Internal Revenue Code Section 30D provides a credit for Qualified Plug-in Electric Drive Motor Vehicles including passenger vehicles and light trucks.

For vehicles acquired after December 31, 2009, the credit is equal to $2,500 plus, for a vehicle which draws propulsion energy from a battery with at least 5 kilowatt hours of capacity, $417, plus an additional $417 for each kilowatt hour of battery capacity in excess of 5 kilowatt hours. The total amount of the credit allowed for a vehicle is limited to $7,500.

The credit begins to phase out for a manufacturer’s vehicles when at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009). For additional information see Notice 2009-89.

 

[brucet999]

this is true. If they need to hold back US deliveries to make it work, they will ship elsewhere. I would guess canada, though.

I think that I would be very upset if I had a Model S or X order held up 6 months in order to help some Model 3 buyers get a tax credit.

 

[MP3Mike]

I think that I would be very upset if I had a Model S or X order held up 6 months in order to help some Model 3 buyers get a tax credit.

They wouldn't hold orders up for 6 months. At most they would hold them up 3 months. And if they do proper planning, i.e. prioritize non-US deliveries, they would not really hold orders up at all. Even if they did hold things up they could still build them and just not deliver them, so it wouldn't be much of a delay. (As long as they get a lot of delivery staff on board.)

 

[ramlax13]

Since it goes by deliveries, in theory they could produce a bunch, hold them until first day of quarter and deliver all at that time. Means they can ramp up production ahead of 200,000th but still hit the timing as they see fit

 

[Saghost]

Since it goes by deliveries, in theory they could produce a bunch, hold them until first day of quarter and deliver all at that time. Means they can ramp up production ahead of 200,000th but still hit the timing as they see fit

I think so, yes. They'd probably annoy a lot of people if they stockpiled for very long, but they could probably do a few weeks without much difficulty.

 

[ummgood]

They aren't going to hold up orders that long. They'll know the orders they have coming in and how many cars they will ship each quarter (plus some pad). They could change the number of deliveries going oversees relative to when they are going to hit 200k cars in the US. If Tesla is good at planning I think they could prioritize model s and x orders and just fluctuate the model 3 orders to make sure they hit the deadline correctly. Plus some Model S orders are only 1 month out so it wouldn't be that difficult to change the estimate to 2 months or so.