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On today's TMC Podcast, we ask the question "What is the Tesla Cybercab?". Join us on YouTube live at 1PM and participate in the chat.
Perfectlogic
Member
This is simply not true, Elon has talked about a possible production of 150-200k/y before the gigafactory, that is 2 years from now. Believing the demand significantly succeeds that production rate for the S/X is unfounded, the best selling luxury car worldwide is the Mercedes S class at a rate of 100k/y.
Disruptive Tesla customers
Markets for Mercedes S and Tesla model S are not the same. They may overlap somewhat.
Market for Tesla seems to be much wider than luxury car market in that particular price range. Likewise, Model X is likely to attract customers that currently occupy wide price range band.
Markets for Mercedes S and Tesla model S are not the same. They may overlap somewhat.
Market for Tesla seems to be much wider than luxury car market in that particular price range. Likewise, Model X is likely to attract customers that currently occupy wide price range band.
Perfectlogic
Member
Will probably change when serious contendors arrive in the $40-60k BEV car segment like the Model 3.
TSLAROX
Member
Agree. People that would never dream of buying a Mercedes S class are buying Teslas. While S and X do appeal to the luxury market, they also appeal to people who don't want to drive ICEs, who want to support the transition to a solar electric economy, and don't want to wait for Model 3. The nicest car my mother drove before her Model S was a used 2003 Honda Civic.
Runarbt
Active Member
**^^ I had just bought a new 2012 Subaru Forester, likely the highest echelon of luxury I would ever consider, when I discovered Tesla. Now I'm into TM full bore, but for the funk, not the frill. Ok, the frills *are* kinda nice.
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pz1975
Active Member
I had a 2003 Subaru and was looking at hybrids before finding Tesla. I never would have imagined spending over $50K on a car, let alone $100K!
Now extrapolate this concept to the Model 3 and one can see just how big the potential market for that car will be.
Now extrapolate this concept to the Model 3 and one can see just how big the potential market for that car will be.
SebastianR
Active Member
Well, two things, firstly, I think that Elon is aware of your concern, in fact, he mentioned it in the blog post on the patents:
And then, I'm currently not worried about Tesla's costs too much: the car seems to be selling just fine, the margin is substantial and I don't believe we're just yet in the running for the last tenth of a cent for the windshield wiper yet. At this point the biggest cost potential is in the drive train and the batteries. As long as Tesla excels here, there is no reason (IMHO) to worry too much about the rest. Still looking forward to you analysis though
Citizen-T
Active Member
If a major auto maker like BMW goes all in on EVs analysts and media alike will hail the end of the ICE ear and TSLA stock will shoot through the roof on speculation of a solar - electric future.
That is how it will benefit TSLA shareholders.
I don't know why after years of complaining about other market participants not doing their homework before shorting TSLA we all-of-the sudden think they will start caring about cost of good calculations before they speculate the hell out of the stock.
Just be ready to take profits when it starts to get out of hand.
That is how it will benefit TSLA shareholders.
I don't know why after years of complaining about other market participants not doing their homework before shorting TSLA we all-of-the sudden think they will start caring about cost of good calculations before they speculate the hell out of the stock.
Just be ready to take profits when it starts to get out of hand.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Right now BMW is about 5% in to EVs. That is, their EV the i3 is about 5% of their total unit sales. Nissan is only 2% in EVs. I think this is a good metric to keep an eye on. I expect that BMW could double its EV sales every 12 to 24 months. In 6 - 10 years they could be halfway in, producing more EVs than ICEVs.
How far in does an automaker need to go to reach the point of no return, to be fully committed? I think if BMW gets to 20% in 5 years, they won't look back. By comparison, Nissan is much further off from that sort of commitment. They aren't ready to burn any bridges.
How far in does an automaker need to go to reach the point of no return, to be fully committed? I think if BMW gets to 20% in 5 years, they won't look back. By comparison, Nissan is much further off from that sort of commitment. They aren't ready to burn any bridges.
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Nissan at least has *some* battery production capacity, BMW has *none*. They buy from sold out producer. They can't increase production of EVs without a major bump in production of cells.
There really are only two big suppliers of batteries: panasonic and LGChem. Panasonic is 'sold out' to tesla and LGChem is sold out to everybody else.
I will not take seriously any talk about other automakers increasing production in (near) future without clear plan of where they will get the batteries.
Show me BMW's 'megafactory' and I'l buy into your "BMW gets to 20% in 5 years". As things look today there is 0% chance of that happening. You cannot sell an EV without a battery and LGChem cannot produce enough cells for that to happen without axing all other customers.
Just thinking out loud here:
What about Tesla sold the BMW a finished Gen-III "surfboard" with batteries from the GF, so BMW could put one 3-series or 5-series bodywork/interior on this? In the longer term Tesla could then build a battery and surfboard factory in Europe to sell parts to BMW or BMW could built it them self and licensed the technology from Tesla?
There's a long history of such a partnership. Fisher Body Works built the chassises for many "motor companies," including Buick, Chevrolet, Cadillac and Ford, which did the drivetrain, suspension, wheels, etc.. I don't think you'd see that work well today, however; the standards for tight integration of drivetrain, suspension, aerodynamics, etc. are much higher today than a century ago.
What pieces would BMW be willing to buy? I think we should look at the Mercedes B-klasse deal to get an idea. Daimler just wanted the power train, and it probably negotiated with Tesla the geometry of the battery pack. While Tesla is supply-constrained in batteries, though, I can't see it selling its scarce batteries to BMW. (The Daimler deal was inked before Tesla realized how huge global demand is for the Model S.) Once the gigafactory is up, though, Tesla would be in a great position to sell batteries and drivetrains to other OEMs, earning a handsome margin (the difference between Tesla's low cost at the gigafactory and the higher costs from every other manufacturer) and allowing Tesla to expand the gigafactory more rapidly than if it just relied on its own sales.
It seems quite possible that in less than two years Tesla will announce the start of construction of the second Gigafactory because of rising demand for Tesla batteries and drivetrains from other car manufacturers that want to build more EVs.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I'm pretty much counting on it. If they are going to keep doubling every 16 to 24 months until EVs dominate the auto market, then they need to queue up there second Gigafactory within 24 months and a third in 36 months. After the first one or two, they should be able to self-finance all the rest out of cash flow. Demand can easily double every 12 months or quicker, the real challenge is doubling output within 24 months. Tesla will remain production constrained for over a decade maybe two.
Yes, I'm familiar with Fisher and others. I may have expressed myself a bit imprecisely, but my thoughts was that they wold do a bit more then just "coach building". Eg. suspension/brakes is something I don't think BMW will use from Tesla.
Model 3 will be about the same size at BMW's 3-series. So my thoughts was something like this (except the suspension and breaks) - but of course for the Gen-III surfboard:
For safety's sake I emphasize that this was just an odd thought that struck me when I read the post I responded to, not some deep thoughts I've had for a long time
Model 3 will be about the same size at BMW's 3-series. So my thoughts was something like this (except the suspension and breaks) - but of course for the Gen-III surfboard:
View attachment 64246
For safety's sake I emphasize that this was just an odd thought that struck me when I read the post I responded to, not some deep thoughts I've had for a long time
If BMW were to outsource battery pack,motor,inverter,front and rear sub assembly to Tesla it would no longer have control of the core technology of the vehicle.
BMW would be to Tesla what Aston Martin is to Mercedes Benz. It would essentially be a coach builder. BMW does not make suspensions and brakes. It buys those from Bilstein,Brembo and others. They would be assembling cars with purchased parts save for sheet metal and a few trivial pieces. Sheet metal making is not a core technology that differentiates one manufacture from another.
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