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Ukrainian-Russian situation: impact to the market

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One would think they would be perfectly fine. But when I had a 10%+ stop loss on AAPL at ~260, and it decided to drop to ~230 over the course of 5 minutes back in the flash crash, my AAPL shares got sold at 203 and it recovered to 260 in a matter of minutes. And of course, since AAPL wasn't an "affected stock" (that only applied to stocks which lost 40% of their value, or some nonsense like that), the trades didn't get cancelled, as they did for many other stocks.

Still pretty pissed about that.

As for short-term movements: Frankfurt opened and we're up to $257. Only 3k shares traded of course, but this is making the 260 calls I wrote yesterday look pretty bad. Pennies in front of a steamroller indeed. Does anyone know if most brokerages provide a way to designate which shares to get called away, if it comes down to that?

Yes, you can easily set last in first out or first in first out. You should also be able to designate certain shares during the settling period after the sale, or worst case call your broker and tell him which shares you want to have called away. My brokerage stinks in most ways and I can even do these things.
 
Thankfully and mercifully, it appears that the Ukraine crisis has ratcheted down a notch as Putin's televised statements earlier today would seem to indicate his intentions are not all-out war with Ukraine, but that use of force would be a "last resort." His rhetoric of "liberation and protection" of ethnic Russians in Ukraine with an "order-keeping presence" seems to be aimed at securing his standing with his own people more than anything. He may in fact fear tanking his own economy, and the economic retaliation of a unified Western world more than previously thought. In the end, this may prove to be a political stunt and gambit that moved perilously close to armed conflict but stopped short. We shall see. For now, the markets have priced in much less volatility and "fear" going forward.

Still hoping that peace prevails in the region.

BBC News - Putin: Russia force only in Ukraine
 
The most effective response NATO could give to Mr Putin is to stop needing his natural gas.
UK, Germany, Italy should match French in Nuclear power, and out of a sudden Russia would be in very bad economical shape.
Don't get me started on Solar and Wind, it could offset 10% maybe 20%, but without huge scale electrical storage of surplus grid electricity it can't do the job. Only nuclear + electric vehicles could put Russia, Iran and other non democratic/sponsors of terrorism countries in the place they belong (until they learn the value of real democracy).
Of course, Germany and Italy going nuclear is an unlikely proposition. It's a rhetorical point only.
I tell you what, even if Putin eventually pulls back from Crimea, this won't be his last menace act in regards to world stability.
 
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The one part I can confirm is that Paet does sound like the real Paet and the initial pickup of the call is done in Estonian where the girl identifies it as Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Also Paet's and all the Estonian side accents are accents that native Estonian speakers usually have when speaking english. So looks legit... It's also front page news here in Estonia, but so far no comment from Paet.

Edit: scratch that!!! Paet just confirmed the recording is authentic.
 
well this looks ugly. apparently opposition leaders hired snipers to shoot at crowds to discredit Yanukovich
Breaking: Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet and Catherine Ashton discuss Ukraine over the phone - YouTube

well, thats certainly a "**** hits the fan" moment.


Atleast they mentioned how disturbing that is and that it was done by the opposition.
There were many rumors spread by proRussian people that those shooting were initiated by the NATO or CIA or whatever.
 
well this looks ugly. apparently opposition leaders hired snipers to shoot at crowds to discredit Yanukovich
Breaking: Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet and Catherine Ashton discuss Ukraine over the phone - YouTube
well, thats certainly a "**** hits the fan" moment.


Atleast they mentioned how disturbing that is and that it was done by the opposition.
There were many rumors spread by proRussian people that those shooting were initiated by the NATO or CIA or whatever.
Paet’s source is someone called Olga. From the recording it’s not clear who this Olga is…
 
[My underline.]

15.17 Our correspondent, Damien McElroy, has spoken to the doctor at the centre of the claims that snipers that shot people in Kiev were hired by Maidan leaders:

Olga Bogomolets said she had not told Mr Paet that policemen and protesters had been killed in the same manner.

"Myself I saw only protesters. I do not know the type of wounds suffered by military people," she told The Telegraph. "I have no access to those people."

But she said she had asked for a full forensic criminal investigation into the deaths that occurred in the Maidan. "No one who just sees the wounds when treating the victims can make a determination about the type of weapons. I hope international experts and Ukrainian investigators will make a determination of what type of weapons, who was involved in the killings and how it was done. I have no data to prove anything.

"I was a doctor helping to save people on the square. There were 15 people killed on the first day by snipers. They were shot directly to the heart, brain and arteries. There were more than 40 the next day, 12 of them died in my arms.

"Our nation has to ask the question who were the killers, who asked them to come to Ukraine. We need good answers on the basis of expertise."

Mr Paet's assertion that an opposition figure was behind the Maidan massacre was not one she could share.

"I think you can only say something like this on the basis of fact," she said. "Its not correct and its not good to do this. It should be based on fact."

She said the new government in Kiev had assured her a criminal investigation had begun but that she had not direct contact with it so far.

"They told me they have begun a criminal process and if they say that I believe them. The police have not given me any information on it."

Source:

Ukraine crisis: UN envoy 'threatened by gunmen' in Crimea - live - Telegraph
So, was this whole story just more RT propaganda?
 
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If Estonian foreign minister said that the leaked conversation is true, how can it?. Doesn't make sense. It's either him or Olga who is lying. But personally I think it's the latter, as she might have been threatened by Ukrainian separatists after this was leaked.
Why wouldn’t it make sense? I’m sure there are a lot of possible alternate explanations. Including being threatened by people on the Yanukovych side. Or the FSB.
 
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OK, I realize most of us here are not geo-political analysts, but let's chat about the short- and long-term implications of Putin's actions...
Energy to Eastern Europe?
Implications to the supply and demand for natural gas?
NATO action? (intentionally omitted, anything U.S. political)

None of the above?
Value of electrical infrastructure and transport? (Meaning TSLA, solar, and others not yet identified)

The implications of this is severe. One of the glaring issues here is that prior, Ukraine had nuclear weapons. In 1991, Ukraine gave up their nuclear missiles under a guarantee from NATO and Russia that their borders will be honored and protected. Do you think Russia would have went in if Ukraine still had their nuclear weapons?

This conflict is going to have long term implications on relations with the middle east, that is for sure. None of them are going to buy the "You don't need nuclear weapons because we guarantee your safety" line. And Russia might also lose a lot of negotiating power with the middle east to that extent.

Which in turn will probably lead to further conflict and higher oil prices.

Im not certain about the role of China in this conflict, China seems to stand on Russians side in this conflict. I would like to get an idea of how far China will take this partnership.

As long as China does not take this as an ok to invade Taiwan.
 
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Just an update on today's risk-off, which has been fueled by Chinese economic news and Ukraine tensions:

Briefing.com said:
In all likelihood, two factors fueled the slide and they continue to weigh on sentiment at this juncture. Overnight, China reported some economic data that indicated a slowdown in the pace of its economic growth. Industrial production (8.6% year-over-year versus 9.5% expected), fixed asset investment (17.9% year-over-year versus 19.4% expected), and retail sales (11.8% year-over-year versus 13.5% expected) all fell short of estimates. It should be noted the disappointing data was reported amid persistent worries about the country's corporate bond market.

Elsewhere, with the Crimean referendum on joining the Russian Federation still scheduled for Sunday, participants are likely reducing their risk exposure ahead of the weekend event. Earlier, Ukraine's acting President Oleksandr Turchynov was quoted as saying he believes Russia is 'ready to invade.' The comments were followed by a statement from U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who said if the referendum goes ahead as planned there will be 'serious series of steps' taking place on Monday from the United States and Europe.

The risk-off sentiment has also been reflected by the Treasury market where the 10-yr note (+20/32) sits on its high with the benchmark yield down seven basis points at 2.66%. Strikingly, the rally in Treasuries accelerated just after the remarks from Ukraine's acting president.
 
Well as I understand Crimea will make the official application tomorrow, Russia will then create a law for adding countries that have done a referendum. Once that's checked against their constitution they ratify it and give the Crimeans time to change their constitution. They also have to decide how they give zrussian citizenship to everyone.

Annexing Crimea is going to cost Russia billions a year as it's fully dependent on everything. So it's interesting how they will react now ...