FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
US futures off 1% currently. Tough to say how TSLA will react. Typically beta is twice the naz. Hopefully tesla-specific events will counter the overall market being down.
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US futures off 1% currently. Tough to say how TSLA will react. Typically beta is twice the naz. Hopefully tesla-specific events will counter the overall market being down.
Norse
Active Member
Just FYI Nikkei is up and down 3% every other day. It does not mean anything. It was sown 3% when Tesla rallied from $138 to $160. It was down 7% when Tesla went from $81 to $97. Australia is only down 0.7%
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
People will freak out a bit and it will give us the correction we've been waiting on. Then Warren Buffett will get out his checkbook and make a killing.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
First off, like everyone on this board, I hope that Ukraine will survive this crisis. Many of Russia's neighbours have had to pay a heavy price at various times in history, just by accident of geography. I really hope this de-escalates before it turns into all-out war.
For reference, I took a very small sample of activity on the U.S. markets from the summer of 2008 during the conflict in Georgia.
For most stocks I looked at, the minimum seems to have occurred during the week of July 3 - July 11 (the resolution in Google Finance for this period is 1 week). The crisis started on June 14 and ended on Aug 19. By Aug 22, some stocks had recovered; many others kept falling. The bottom fell out of the market completely just a bit later, due to the financial crisis coming to a head. It's possible that the events in Georgia were only a small signal in the larger context.
Google Trends shows a peak of the worldwide echo from the events between Aug 10 - Aug 16:
And here is the response of the U.S. markets. On each date, I show where the stock was relatively to June 13:
Obviously, this "analysis" is not rigorous enough for any serious purpose. It is only a very crude attempt to get an idea of what we might see during the following weeks. There is no telling what will happen this time around. Some elements of this crisis are significantly more ominous.
Perhaps the biggest flaw in this table is that, because the beginnings of the financial crisis overlapped with the events in Georgia, it is very difficult to discern how big the effect of the war was. It seems there was a clear dip followed by a recovery of sorts right around the time of the war, but not much else can be gleaned. If there is a way to better do this analysis, I hope someone will show how.
For reference, I took a very small sample of activity on the U.S. markets from the summer of 2008 during the conflict in Georgia.
For most stocks I looked at, the minimum seems to have occurred during the week of July 3 - July 11 (the resolution in Google Finance for this period is 1 week). The crisis started on June 14 and ended on Aug 19. By Aug 22, some stocks had recovered; many others kept falling. The bottom fell out of the market completely just a bit later, due to the financial crisis coming to a head. It's possible that the events in Georgia were only a small signal in the larger context.
Google Trends shows a peak of the worldwide echo from the events between Aug 10 - Aug 16:
And here is the response of the U.S. markets. On each date, I show where the stock was relatively to June 13:
Code:
June/13 July/3 July/11 Aug/1 Aug/22
------- ------ ------- ------- ------
ADBE $42.71 -4.52% -7.23% -2.55% +6.17%
INTC $22.66 -9.79% -9.88% -2.41% +2.57%
MSFT $29.07 -5.49% -8.15% -7.46% +1.27%
ORCL $22.63 -7.70% -6.68% -4.27% +1.07%
IBM $126.15 -4.32% -2.26% +1.36% -0.01%
HPQ $47.45 -8.80% -12.68% -7.71% -1.20%
ADSK $38.54 -16.17% -18.42% -16.88% -4.10%
AAPL $172.37 -8.36% -7.04% -15.61% -4.77%
GOOG $571.51 -5.29% -5.86% -17.49% -13.48%
TM $102.71 -10.37% -11.81% -17.11% -13.43%
YHOO $23.47 -19.25% -10.85% -25.11% -26.13%
F $6.27 -26.82% -19.54% -25.84% -28.71%
NASDAQ 2454.50 -9.26% -9.52% -6.61% -2.42%
S&P500 1357.50 -7.19% -8.91% -7.38% -5.03%
NYSE 9063.23 -7.33% -8.80% -8.45% -8.51%Obviously, this "analysis" is not rigorous enough for any serious purpose. It is only a very crude attempt to get an idea of what we might see during the following weeks. There is no telling what will happen this time around. Some elements of this crisis are significantly more ominous.
Perhaps the biggest flaw in this table is that, because the beginnings of the financial crisis overlapped with the events in Georgia, it is very difficult to discern how big the effect of the war was. It seems there was a clear dip followed by a recovery of sorts right around the time of the war, but not much else can be gleaned. If there is a way to better do this analysis, I hope someone will show how.
Actually this is quite insightful. I definitely need to learn how to use google trends as a tool, its been on my to-do list for a while. I think it leads me to believe me that the next week or two will reflect most the activity that the war causes, assuming Mr. Putin doesn't rapidly escalate or de-escalate his maneuvers.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Well the Russian index MICEX is down 10% today in trading already. EU seems flat so far though it's just begun trading.
Norse
Active Member
Kind of ironic that Russia is the only one feeling it here. Oil prices are up, and experts say that Russia needs to end the situation to get stability in their exonomy. Overall this is a win for renewables. We have more arguments now. And worst case scenario is that we get a bargain here.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Not to be the one to go for fear mongering, but best case scenario is that we get a bargain here. Worst case scenario is an all out war that escalates to NATO member countries (Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia being the prime candidates due to their ex-SU status).
If this thing blows over, then it'll be a postercard reason why one needs to reduce dependence on foreign energy sources yes, but it's just beginning and far from being over, let's just hope that the amount of blood will not escalate from where it already stands (a lot btw as there are multiple sources that showed that the revolt in Kiev was fought by Russian special forces partially, interfering in the process already at that point).
Has anyone mentioned the RUSS ETF? It's a 3x Russian short ETF. My friend found it this weekend, wish I would have known/thought about it a couple days ago, because I bet it's going to open up. I think I'm going to submit a limit order for some shares at open, just to see what happens. Bet it won't even get executed though if the things I'm hearing about Russian stocks tanking are true.
Seems thinly traded, right now the bid is at 18.81 and the ask is at...45.95. Haha. So, yeah, would be very unwise to submit a market order in case anyone was considering it.
Seems thinly traded, right now the bid is at 18.81 and the ask is at...45.95. Haha. So, yeah, would be very unwise to submit a market order in case anyone was considering it.
Personally, I don't think Putin has any interest in conquering Ukraine. The reason why he is doing what he is doing is more of a show of power. Ukraine has a large Russian population, so he has to show that Russia is "protecting" the Russians. Taking back Ukraine would not be a good option because then Russia will then have to cover the financials such as covering millions of people's pensions and the like. They might end up take a piece of Ukraine or dividing up Ukraine but overall making Ukraine part of Russia is unlikely. Ukraine does not exactly have anything Russia really needs either, the only thing Russia may not want is Ukraine to enter NATO.
But to be honest, there is very little chance of that. Ukraine is a huge mess unfortunately and while I would like Ukraine to enter the European Union I don't think that is going to happen. As I mentioned before, almost 20% of the population considers themselves to be Russians (not Ukrainians). The patriotic Ukrainians are in the minority as 96% of the russian population considers their native language to be Russian and 4% consider it to be Ukranian. So what does the new Ukranian government do? They abolished the law that allows the official language in the area to be based on the population of the area. Thus forcing Ukrainian as the only official language. If Ukraine was serious about having progress, they would be more concerned with economic reform rather then worry about the language. (Probably out of bitterness since when Ukraine was part of Soviet Union, Ukrainian was considered "improper russian" or "low class russian", but you can't live in the past)
So yeah, Ukraine is a mess. The patriotic portion of Ukraine is made of crazies that needs to wake up to reality and find a compromise with the Russian population.
But to be honest, there is very little chance of that. Ukraine is a huge mess unfortunately and while I would like Ukraine to enter the European Union I don't think that is going to happen. As I mentioned before, almost 20% of the population considers themselves to be Russians (not Ukrainians). The patriotic Ukrainians are in the minority as 96% of the russian population considers their native language to be Russian and 4% consider it to be Ukranian. So what does the new Ukranian government do? They abolished the law that allows the official language in the area to be based on the population of the area. Thus forcing Ukrainian as the only official language. If Ukraine was serious about having progress, they would be more concerned with economic reform rather then worry about the language. (Probably out of bitterness since when Ukraine was part of Soviet Union, Ukrainian was considered "improper russian" or "low class russian", but you can't live in the past)
So yeah, Ukraine is a mess. The patriotic portion of Ukraine is made of crazies that needs to wake up to reality and find a compromise with the Russian population.
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
I agree.If you believe anything orchestrated by Russia resembles free elections or democracy, then I've got some prime swampland for saleHaving lived in soviet union and live in an ex-SU country (albeit one that has recovered from its dark past best in the region) gives me a bit better insight to the thinkings of the Russian leaders. Putin is not a guy for small things. The whole nice setup of Putin+Medvedev is in effect totalitarian control of the government where they pee on the legislation that forbids consecutive presidency etc. /…
As I understand it, Putin rigged (at least) the latest Russian election (I haven’t read up on the previous ones). Putin also bans all (?) demonstrations, jails musicians for blasphemy (Pussy Riot). And what other ‘democracy’ has a list like this one of more than 200 journalists who have been killed?
List of journalists killed in Russia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
And that list is incomplete.
But Crimea (and other parts of Ukraine) are not Russia (yet). I don’t think he’ll be able to get away with those kinds of criminal acts within the Ukraine, and I don’t think he’ll be able to rig elections in Crimea or in other parts of Ukraine. All the democratic west needs to do, is completely litter the place with election observers that can’t be bullied or bribed.
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Norse
Active Member
I think a lot of Russians are pissed since he ruined the Russian economy today. This will hopefully be over soon. I hope someone is working in the backround here.
Which country or group of people do you think has the will and the military strength to hold Putin accountable for his actions? I'm not sure there is one currently. Also, there is no such thing as a person who cannot be bullied or bribed unless that person is willing to die, which I would assume is a rare job qualification for election observers without men with guns standing behind them.
This is going to get worse before it gets better, I'm afraid.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
If that happens – what prevents the election observers from reporting massive amounts of death threats and voter fraud once they are out of whatever region they are observing?
And if there are massive amounts of death threats and voter fraud reported by these election observers, then it’s up to the democratic west to either put massive economic sanctions in place or not. Those kinds of sanctions brought down the Soviet Union, so – if that happens – then, let’s hope sanctions can bring down Putin and his henchmen as well.
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And why not throw in armed UN personal to accompany the election observers?
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
If he doesn’t, then it’s up to the democratic west to either jump directly to massive economic sanctions (or not).
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