Ukrainian-Russian situation: impact to the market

[NigelM]

Mod Note: one post and those that quoted it went here - Politics-Quarantine-Thread

 

[FluxCap]

Update as of 12:14pm EST:

OSCE observers detained in east Ukraine rebel town:



Seven members of an OSCE observer mission in Ukraine were seized by rebels Friday and being held in the eastern town of Slavyansk, the interior ministry in Kiev said.


"Near the entrance to Slavyansk, unknown persons stopped the bus with 13 passengers including seven OSCE representatives, five representatives of the armed forces of Ukraine and the driver of the vehicle," the ministry said in a statement.


It said the passengers were taken to the occupied security services building in the town and the rebels were demanding to speak with "the competent authorities of the Russian Federation".

 

[sleepyhead]

I think that the Ukraine needs to gather proof that the "rebels" are torturing Ukraine citizens and holding other innocent people hostage; if they haven't done so already.

Then I would present that evidence to Russia, EU, US, etc. and tell Putin that he has 24 or 48 hours to negotiate with the rebels to stand down, release all of the hostages, and give back the government buildings that they seized.

Then you tell Putin that if the rebels do not comply with these demands by the deadline, then Ukraine will use their entire military force to squash these rebels like the flies that they are.

After all, there are reports that a Ukrainian Government Official's body was found dead in a river and that person was clearly tortured before he was murdered. How long are we going to let these rebels get away with this?

Four of those OSCE prisoners are from Germany, and the other from Poland, Denmark, Czech Republic, and Bulgaria. Hopefully Germany will now get strong-handed against Russia as well; five Ukrainians were also captured. Poland and US are big allies, so the US is going to have to step up its efforts on sanctions.

Ukraine has shown great restraint, but at some point you just have to go in and protect your own people. I would call Putin's bluff, because there is no way that he will cross the Ukrainian border if there is evidence of torture presented. Ukraine can use the social media platform to let the world see what is going on and then use social media to make the 24-48 hour ultimatum official. Let the world know that the rebels are the bad guys, and that Ukraine is doing the humane thing with its military action.

There is no way that Russia could invade if Ukraine plays its cards right.

 

[kenliles]

There is no way that Russia could invade if Ukraine plays its cards right.

Agree with that; The current problem is there's no track record they have the skill to play cards at all, much less right (the Ukraine leaders I'm talking about here, not the citizenry). There are too many interests at stake here (EU specifically) and this may come to a head soon- spike the market down offering a good buy-op as it quickly resolves to return lost ground. Just a guess based on past events like this. Came out of left field though-- and I'm still confused as to what Putin even wants with these parts of the Ukraine. There's very little to be gained and a lot to lose... so I can't form a working opinion on his future actions in this regard

 

[The Blue Owl]

I think that the Ukraine needs to gather proof that the "rebels" are torturing Ukraine citizens and holding other innocent people hostage; if they haven't done so already.

Then I would present that evidence to Russia, EU, US, etc. and tell Putin that he has 24 or 48 hours to negotiate with the rebels to stand down, release all of the hostages, and give back the government buildings that they seized.

Then you tell Putin that if the rebels do not comply with these demands by the deadline, then Ukraine will use their entire military force to squash these rebels like the flies that they are.

After all, there are reports that a Ukrainian Government Official's body was found dead in a river and that person was clearly tortured before he was murdered. How long are we going to let these rebels get away with this?

Four of those OSCE prisoners are from Germany, and the other from Poland, Denmark, Czech Republic, and Bulgaria. Hopefully Germany will now get strong-handed against Russia as well; five Ukrainians were also captured. Poland and US are big allies, so the US is going to have to step up its efforts on sanctions.

Ukraine has shown great restraint, but at some point you just have to go in and protect your own people. I would call Putin's bluff, because there is no way that he will cross the Ukrainian border if there is evidence of torture presented. Ukraine can use the social media platform to let the world see what is going on and then use social media to make the 24-48 hour ultimatum official. Let the world know that the rebels are the bad guys, and that Ukraine is doing the humane thing with its military action.

There is no way that Russia could invade if Ukraine plays its cards right.

I really wish that presenting the truth of the situation to the world were sufficient to shame the participants in a conflict to do the right thing. Unfortunately, experience shows it almost never happens.

As they say, the first casualty of war is the truth. Every single time, both sides in any conflict are convinced that their truth should be obvious for everyone else to see, and that the other side is lying through their teeth (I'm referring to the opinion of the public in the involved countries, not necessarily the leaders.) Finally, the worst part is that there is always a kernel of truth in both sides' positions, which leads, with no exception, to pretty deep divisions among the bystanders.

Look how varied the positions expressed on this board are, and most of us (though not all) are nowhere physically close to the epicentre. I mean, hell, people debate the pros and cons of high-frequency trading, the technical superiority and market potential of Tesla's electric cars, or the merits of SolarCity's business model, and I have yet to see any wide consensus emerging on any of these topics, despite the fact that everyone has access to pretty much the same evidence. There is no chance that the objective analysis of all available evidence will lead to cooler heads prevailing when the subject is war.

That said, I think everything you said should definitely be done. I'm of the opinion that the only hope to stop, or at least slow down, the escalation is to increase the costs to the parties involved until they are seriously higher than what they are willing, or able, to incur. In order to impose those costs, you need collective action from the outside parties, and for that, in turn, you need to build public support.

 

[Student_Forever]

Just saw this. I have highlighted one sentence there.

G-7 Leaders Statement on Ukraine | The White House

The White House
Office of the Press Secretary
For Immediate Release
April 25, 2014

G-7 Leaders Statement on Ukraine

We, the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, join in expressing our deep concern at the continued efforts by separatists backed by Russia to destabilize eastern Ukraine and our commitment to taking further steps to ensure a peaceful and stable environment for the May 25 presidential election.


We welcomed the positive steps taken by Ukraine to meet its commitments under the Geneva accord of April 17 by Ukraine, Russia, the European Union, and the United States. These actions include working towards constitutional reform and decentralization, proposing an amnesty law for those who will peacefully leave the buildings they have seized in eastern Ukraine, and supporting the work of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). We also note that the Government of Ukraine has acted with restraint in dealing with the armed bands illegally occupying government buildings and forming illegal checkpoints.


In contrast, Russia has taken no concrete actions in support of the Geneva accord. It has not publicly supported the accord, nor condemned the acts of pro-separatists seeking to destabilize Ukraine, nor called on armed militants to leave peacefully the government buildings they've occupied and put down their arms. Instead, it has continued to escalate tensions by increasingly concerning rhetoric and ongoing threatening military maneuvers on Ukraine's border.


We reiterate our strong condemnation of Russia's illegal attempt to annex Crimea and Sevastopol, which we do not recognize. We will now follow through on the full legal and practical consequences of this illegal annexation, including but not limited to the economic, trade and financial areas.


We have now agreed that we will move swiftly to impose additional sanctions on Russia. Given the urgency of securing the opportunity for a successful and peaceful democratic vote next month in Ukraine's presidential elections, we have committed to act urgently to intensify targeted sanctions and measures to increase the costs of Russia's actions.


Russia's actions in Ukraine and the response from the international community already have imposed significant costs on its economy. While we continue to prepare to move to broader, coordinated sanctions, including sectoral measures should circumstances warrant, as we committed to in The Hague on March 24, we underscore that the door remains open to a diplomatic resolution of this crisis, on the basis of the Geneva accord. We urge Russia to join us in committing to that path.

 

[The Blue Owl]

A really interesting take in the New York Times on Putin's long game in Ukraine.

---
For Russia, Negatives Seem to Outweigh Positives of an Invasion


The reasons for Vladimir V. Putin to refrain from further military adventurism make a long, tangled list.


Log In - The New York Times

 

[The Blue Owl]

More escalation in Ukraine. The mayor of Ukraine's second-largest city was shot in the back today.


Link to USA Today article.

 

[stardust]

There is likely to be even more escalation in Ukraine as the country approaches Presidential elections on May 25th. Putin doesn't have a pro-Moscow candidate that could win the race so he's trying to derail the elections by sponsoring the separatist movement in the east. Kernes, the mayor who was shot, recently switched the sides and is credited with successful anti-separatist actions in his city - that may well be the reason why he was shot...

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note: Please keep in mind that this is a thread on TMC. The discussion is here because there's a causal chain: Ukraine -> markets -> TSLA.

Thanks,
Robert

 

[kenliles]

I'll post this here also- because in the second half of this press conference video of Elon- he talks extensively about SpaceX suit of the Air Force and how wrong it is for US to be sending millions of dollars to Russia-Putin while sanctioning them for Ukraine- a very interesting side take to keep in mind relative to Elon's association to this event even though only a cross wind to Tesla- still a strong crosswind when the CEO is so acutely aware. I found it fascinating
Reuters Insider

 

[FluxCap]

From the live feed, we have reports of Ukrainian gunships firing on Russian checkpoints, which looks to be a serious escalation beyond trading police stations in Eastern cities.

Al Jazeera's Jonah Hull reporting from Donetsk added some details about the operation in Slovyansk:

"On social media we hear about eight armoured personnel vehicles were seen heading up to the city, one or two helicopters were seen firing down on the separatists checkpoints that were set up at the perimeter of Slovyansk and there's a report that one of those helicopters may have been shot down, and the occupants were taken prisoner.

"None of it I can independently verify but in the words of the people of Slovyansk, a large scale operation is underway to try to retake the city."

Be careful with your short-term TSLA plays everyone, even with earnings coming up, if the market decides to pay attention to this again and gets fearful, as one of the media's labeled "mo-mo" stocks, we could see a $20 drop without blinking an eye.

 

[kenliles]

Timely post. Thanks very much Flux

 

[RobStark]

U.S. official says 1,000 Russian troops have entered Ukraine

http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=wo_c2


Yep, Western sanctions will stop Putin Imperialism.

No need to worry.

 

[FluxCap]

He would appear to be ratcheting up his attacks again. I hadn't checked it in awhile, but this "liveblog" remains updated more regularly than others I've found.