I am loathe to give any non-Tesla trading ideas, this is a brand new strategy for me and I have very little confidence in it, I have some ethical hesitation on being short when it is not a hedge of a long position and it is a minuscule part of my portfolio...please do your own due diligence...that being said, my first foray into disrupted companies is Generac (GNRC).I really like this but who can you target in the short term. Long term I see Tesla disrupting many companies but in the term of a put I am less sure of any. I would love to hear some of your ideas. I am becoming increasingly worried about the whole market turning over and this might be a good route to take.
A couple things that interested me: their generators are direct competitors commercially and residentially with the power wall and power pack. Their stock has appreciated +2X the S&P over the last 4 years, but lagged dramatically in the last 12 months. Their sales growth has, at best, stalled, if not contracted. They have $150 million in cash and over $1Billion in debt. Analysts have reduced expectations for this quarters' earnings and reduced 2015 and 2016 estimates, but have maintained strong revenue and profit estimates for Q3. Their oil & gas business is suffering from the drop in oil prices and Capital investment from oil exploration.
My theory (which may be crap) is if the gigafactory is completed in 2016 and telecommunications, health care and other markets begin to dry up for new contracts, it will be difficult for GNRC to sustain a growth trajectory commensurate with their stock price and valuation and to service their debt.
There has been recent, significant, activity in Jan 2016 $35 Puts, with 3500 contracts traded each of the last 2 days and 7000 contracts of open interest. (These trades happened after I had bought puts and, to me, are mind numbing in size).
Any counter arguments or feedback would be appreciated.