TSLA Technical Analysis

[Curt Renz]

Piper Jaffray technical analyst Craig Johnson was an occasional guest on my TV show. He still emails me his weekly newsletter. On Monday 2013 JAN 28 he included TSLA among a short list of stocks looking positive technically with no other details. I had not heard of the company or its cars. Throughout that week I researched Tesla and Elon. During each of the remaining four days that week I bought shares at an average of less than $38 each.

Since then Craig never once mentioned TSLA – until today. Again he has TSLA on a short list of stocks looking positive technically with no other details.

Sorry I didn’t mention this this morning, but I’ve been busy and just now started reading Craig's newsletter.

 

[AlMc]

Piper Jaffray technical analyst Craig Johnson was an occasional guest on my TV show. He still emails me his weekly newsletter. On Monday 2013 JAN 28 he included TSLA among a short list of stocks looking positive technically with no other details. I had not heard of the company or its cars. Throughout that week I researched Tesla and Elon. During each of the remaining four days that week I bought shares at an average of less than $38 each.

Since then Craig never once mentioned TSLA – until today. Again he has TSLA on a short list of stocks looking positive technically with no other details.

Sorry I didn’t mention this this morning, but I’ve been busy and just now started reading Craig's newsletter.

Curt, would he respond to you if you asked for a more detailed reason for the bullish TA?

 

[geneclean55]

Worth keeping an eye on how this ascending triangle develops over the next couple days IMO. Ascending triangle patterns that take at least a couple weeks to form (and on decreasing volume) have been golden trades on TSLA in 2017.

 

[tgp1019]

The following comments were made in today's IBD article.

Tesla
Tesla has been working on a cup base going back to late June. As of Tuesday's close, Tesla's handle has reached the minimum five days to create a cup-with-handle pattern. Tesla, which dipped 0.4% to 362.33 on Tuesday, is just 2% off the new potential buy point of 370.10. Until Tuesday's close, the buy point was 387.09, just above the left side of the cup and the all-time high.

The cup-with-handle base is a classic setup that appears over and over again throughout the years. Stocks change, but investor psychology doesn't.

The cup with handle, which should look a lot like teacup, must be at least seven weeks long. (A cup-without-handle pattern must be six weeks.) The midpoint of the handle must be in the upper half of the overall pattern. The handle should be flat to downward-sloping, ideally on light volume. A slight downward drift helps shake out weak holders before a new uptrend. If and when a stock breaks out from the handle, new buyers must bid up the price because existing investors aren't eager to sell.

Tesla has a good-but-not great Composite Rating of 82 out of 99, with its strong share price performance somewhat offsetting continued losses. All-time winners often have a Composite Rating of at least 95 as they begin big price moves.

 

[geneclean55]

TSLA about to get its squeeze on?

 

[bdy0627]

Seems the 100 MA provided nice support around 332. 50 MA is now at 348. That will likely provide some resistance. We will need some volume to shoot back up through it. Over the past couple of weeks, volume has been higher on red days than on green days. That seems a little worrisome short term. Do we ping pong for a bit between the 50 MA and the 100 MA until there is news? Or will the 50 MA not present much resistance?

 

[bdy0627]

Here's the chart:

 

[geneclean55]

In terms of supports, I would pay attention to the 20MA on the weekly chart (335.72). SP hasn't closed below it in a looong time, although it has been tested in recent weeks.

 

[Curt Renz]

The share price this afternoon has poked nicely above the 50-day Simple Moving Average of $347.77 and continues in power mode. Somebody must know something to account for TSLA being so strong today, with no significant Tesla news while the overall market is weak. Often this initially can only be detected through technical analysis with the underlying facts coming out later.

 

[bdy0627]

I'm not an expert on technicals but it looks like the stock is ping ponging into a wedge. 100 MA is providing support. If it follows this trend, it should find support around $335. It's hitting resistance along an upper trendline that extends to just under $355 currently. Going significantly above or below these would break this wedge. Any thoughts?

 

[winfield100]

July/Aug A/D line.
1) buying pressure 7/4 - ~8/7. then selling to 8/21, and back to buying pressure
12/1/2016 to 9/3/2017 (2nd graph)
2) 130,000,000 more shares bought at higher prices.nice upward slope.
(anybody know where i can get raw data, schwab refuses)

12/1/2016 to 9/3/2017 below

 

[GoTslaGo]

Interesting candlestick pattern forming from recent price moves. Each episode of selling pressures has been getting smaller and smaller. Based on what I am seeing on the candle formations, this one is really small, and maybe coming to a denouement. See all the blue arrows, showing the downward selling pressures. The current candlestick formation looks like an echo of the prior series. Wonder if Fidelity is finally selling the last of the early convertibles shares?

I agree with @vgrinshpun, that we are likely coming to the end of the "triangle". Expecting good things afterwards (I'm a bull, so one should know what that means from me...).

 

[zdriver]

I agree with @vgrinshpun, that we are likely coming to the end of the "triangle". Expecting good things afterwards (I'm a bull, so one should know what that means from me...).

I'm cautiously optimistic. Added some LEAPs today, but fully expecting this triangle to be forcibly broken downwards, like what seems to always happen on long term TSLA patterns. Someone will drop a downgrade before open next Monday, crushing any potential breakout upwards, and ramming it back down to $340-330, where it'll end up trading sideways until end of the month when delivery numbers come out, proving the "expectations" in the downgrade wrong...

 

[GoTslaGo]

I'm cautiously optimistic. Added some LEAPs today, but fully expecting this triangle to be forcibly broken downwards, like what seems to always happen on long term TSLA patterns. Someone will drop a downgrade before open next Monday, crushing any potential breakout upwards, and ramming it back down to $340-330, where it'll end up trading sideways until end of the month when delivery numbers come out, proving the "expectations" in the downgrade wrong...

Yep, wouldn't surprise me. Also there is an imminent missile launch coming from NKorea, with possible macro down pressures.

Looking at the candles, the current pattern is only 2-3 days, previous have all been 3-4 days. Today's action is violating the 10d MA, which was holding up SP. So short term, logically, tomorrow should be another down day (broke 10MA, longish red candle--typically move in threes). Except that today's bottom is hitting against the rising lower trendline, which makes me think that this maybe a much shorter selling action that previous cycles. Also volume looks relatively weak. I'm cautiously optimistic too!

I suspect today's price action is because @TrendTrader007 announced he was going to buy more today, so the market obliged...and lowered the price for him.

 

[geneclean55]

Yep, wouldn't surprise me. Also there is an imminent missile launch coming from NKorea, with possible macro down pressures.

Looking at the candles, the current pattern is only 2-3 days, previous have all been 3-4 days. Today's action is violating the 10d MA, which was holding up SP. So short term, logically, tomorrow should be another down day (broke 10MA, longish red candle--typically move in threes). Except that today's bottom is hitting against the rising lower trendline, which makes me think that this maybe a much shorter selling action that previous cycles. Also volume looks relatively weak. I'm cautiously optimistic too!

I suspect today's price action is because @TrendTrader007 announced he was going to buy more today, so the market obliged...and lowered the price for him.

Isn't this what you would expect from TSLA reaching an equilibrium point through progressively higher lows and lower highs?

 

[GoTslaGo]

Isn't this what you would expect from TSLA reaching an equilibrium point through progressively higher lows and lower highs?

I assume you're implying a break out? Yes, is my answer. Issue is downward or up? IMHO, since the dominant trend is up, it will be up. Also, if one looks at the weekly period, 10MA has been going down, and SP has been been moving up from the 10MA. Good signs to me...

 

[geneclean55]

I assume you're implying a break out? Yes, is my answer. Issue is downward or up? IMHO, since the dominant trend is up, it will be up. Also, if one looks at the weekly period, 10MA has been going down, and SP has been been moving up from the 10MA. Good signs to me...

Sorry, I meant the shorter duration of selling pressure.
But overall, yes I am hopeful of an up move upon resolution of the triangle.
As zdriver notes, the first move can often be a downward head fake. Not sure if a downgrade would precipitate that though, as I don't know who is in a position to downgrade as most folks have recently upgraded.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I think the head fake will be macros. SKorean intelligence has spotted a NKorean ICBM making its way to the east coast at night, presumably for a launch on Sept 9--some important NKorean holiday.

 

[GoTslaGo]

View attachment 246124 Interesting candlestick pattern forming from recent price moves. Each episode of selling pressures has been getting smaller and smaller. Based on what I am seeing on the candle formations, this one is really small, and maybe coming to a denouement. See all the blue arrows, showing the downward selling pressures. The current candlestick formation looks like an echo of the prior series. Wonder if Fidelity is finally selling the last of the early convertibles shares?

I agree with @vgrinshpun, that we are likely coming to the end of the "triangle". Expecting good things afterwards (I'm a bull, so one should know what that means from me...).

So we got some color in terms of some of the selling pressures that last several days (before today). Bunch of Form 4's show selling Sept 1, and Sept 5 (2, 3, and 4 were weekend and holiday). Obviously not all the volume, but probably helped push some prices down. Interesting thing is there was one Fm 4 with only 99 shares sold, I think at around 350/share. That works out to 34650 or so... almost the price of a model 3... Hey, these folks deserved it!

 

[Fallenone]

So we got some color in terms of some of the selling pressures that last several days (before today). Bunch of Form 4's show selling Sept 1, and Sept 5 (2, 3, and 4 were weekend and holiday). Obviously not all the volume, but probably helped push some prices down. Interesting thing is there was one Fm 4 with only 99 shares sold, I think at around 350/share. That works out to 34650 or so... almost the price of a model 3... Hey, these folks deserved it!

Really irrelevant.... First those disposition was not done on the open market. Second even if they did, they are just the volume of one or two minutes of a trading day.