Here is my TA chart update. Compared to 02/25 chart, TSLA hit the lower level support around 197, then rebounce back to 200+ zone again.
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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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TA update. With gigafactory FUD attack, even TM fought back right away, the SP still fall off the triangle lower edge support line. Btw, another bearish sign is the 20MA down cross with 50MA. This is the similar pattern from post Q3 ER, 20MA up cross 50MA for short time, then down cross again. But Q4 one is even weak.
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Vgrin, thanks for the nice chart. I have similar cautious feeling if TSLA keep trading on sideways without strong catalysts instead of interleaving with bear attacks. DaveT mentioned his opinion in Q4 ER google+ hangout that he viewed the bottom might be 160ish also. The negative momentum which might push TSLA 30 points down from now:
1) general market correction is due anytime soon, TSLA usually is 3X of market indices;
2) oil price is still uncertain, if oil price slide down to $40 or under, then it'll definitely push TSLA down;
3) bear attacks from time to time, it looks bears still have some ammo on hands. China issue has bottomed out, but I have a feeling that Europe demand might be next weak spot on bear's target. See post http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...on-and-Outlook?p=929971&viewfull=1#post929971. And it's suspicious that Europe order wait time didn't move in Feb except RHD market.
1) general market correction is due anytime soon, TSLA usually is 3X of market indices;
2) oil price is still uncertain, if oil price slide down to $40 or under, then it'll definitely push TSLA down;
3) bear attacks from time to time, it looks bears still have some ammo on hands. China issue has bottomed out, but I have a feeling that Europe demand might be next weak spot on bear's target. See post http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...on-and-Outlook?p=929971&viewfull=1#post929971. And it's suspicious that Europe order wait time didn't move in Feb except RHD market.
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sundaymorning
Active Member
Stationary storage is coming....
All the graphs, patterns, wedges, head and shoulders mentioned here... ain't nothing but a guess
Oil is back above $50, second quarter historically shows higher demand than 1st quarter in OIL prices. Summer is also coming when the demand for oil rises along with thirsty travelers and manufactures/factories ramp up for Christmas sales. I see demand for oil rising as we proceed long term. As for the short term, flip a coin...
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Some choppy double bottom action in the works here....
Will we see $180 again or will good sales figures for March put a bottom in right here?
Will we see $180 again or will good sales figures for March put a bottom in right here?
Just to update the chart, although we broke out of the triangle to the downside, implying the continuation of the down thread, we've seen a nice reversal due to the "range anxiety" press event. Also, when at local market with my wife, I got ticket #7 at the meat stand, while she got ticket #77 at the poultry stand - this got to count for something.
I would be curious to see if TSLA makes decisive move above $200 on Monday...
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The bottomline still hold above $185, but the high points keep going down by supression of down trend line.
True. But there is no downward momentum anymore. Look at the RSI : it bottomed out in the second half of January.
I think that with firmware 6.2 ending range anxiety, many more SuperChargers to be installed this year, new firmwares making good use of all the latest sensors, the Gigafactory under construction, more states allowing direct sales, and finally the introduction of the Model X, there is no possibility for the stock's price to break under $185. The RSI shows that is taking place in people's minds. The down trend line will be broken in April; it is about to be broken by the SMA(50). Then the price will range between the SMA(200) and the bottom at $185 until the presentation of the final version of the Model X by Elon, before breaking the SMA(200).
It is the right time to buy.
Yeah, starting Monday we got a short 2-day rally to just above $200, only to be "coincidently" followed with a downgrade by CLSA from $275 to $220 (still 10% upside) on Wednesday morning, suppressing the stock down to within the downtrend channel the day after it hits the downtrend's resistance point. Impeccable timing.
virtuesoft
Member
I agree with you. It's going to explode, one way or another. I just hope it's upwards.
Paracelsus
Active Member
Hello everyone. New to the thread, but investor and daily follower of movement since February, 2013 at $35/share. The manipulation since late November was perfect to set up a nice resistance line that can run out to just before Q1 earnings 2015. I agree with Noble Ninja that the latest news release regarding CLSA was simply to continue to support the long term trend line. I believe there will be a break out closer to earning release. TSLA trading has been flawless with 'buy on rumor, sell on news'. It has been very informative to watch how closely these movements can be controlled. If the larger market holds through 2015, then the small investor that is in for the long run will watch TSLA move from a manipulated run-up to ~220 towards 300 by the end of the year, while BIG money gets to move theirs from 180's towards 300 in the same timeframe. All you can do is roll with it, although it seems to be getting more predictable all the time.
SP magically closed @ 185 with a long needle. My prediction yesterday still hold, SP will be trading between 185 and down trend line. I guess the next high will be just below 200. Don't be panic today, the worst of China has passed. Next week, we anticipate a serials catalysts to boost SP again, it's we called up and down, isn't it. First, Elon might have positive comments wrt. China sales improvement over the weekend; Second, the direct sales bill in Georgia might be signed by governer; Third, the Norway March delivery would be > 1000. Personally I'm buying today @ 185 and 181.7
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Note there was a lot of volume in last 1 hour rally, about 2.5M shares traded and it's 29% of today's trading.
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Note there was a lot of volume in last 1 hour rally, about 2.5M shares traded and it's 29% of today's trading.
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