TSLA Investor Discussions

[bonnie]

I think you would have to be in Passin's shoes to really know. But I would hope it's not the giant presses! Those are some big boy toys! My guess, and I remind you I know nothing about auto manufacturing, I would think it would be the assembly line itself. Where humans use tools to put it all together. Can not replace every process with a machine. Luckily for us humans....

I agree - but people can be added as the line grows. Eventually, though, there will be a current constraint that dictates more equipment be added. I think the paint is a likely candidate.

 

[Citizen-T]

I for one was very suspicious of Citizen-T's stock movement calls, they are always way too accurate. So I emailed some old friends that are retired from the KGB. Turns out that Jack Daniels Honey Whiskey is very popular in Siberia! Who knew!

So anyway after sending a bottle via FedEx they hacked into Mr. T's computer. Finding some interesting emails' they tracked down an IP address to an off shore account. A very complicated paper trail finally revealed his true source.

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EDIT: My friend in Siberia just emailed me a picture of him celebrating with the Jack Daniels Honey Whiskey I sent him.

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Yeah, he looks a lot different than he did back in the 70's. He say's he had a few cosmetic things done but when he showed Putin. Well let's just say Putin got really upset.

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Well that's how he ended up in Siberia. He says he's not very happy there. That it's so cold everybody suffers from shrinkage.

I told him he's got only himself to blame. That he should of kept his junk in the frunk.

Lol.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

 

[Discoducky]

I wonder what process will be the pinch point at 100,000. What equipment will they first have to expand to increase throughput?

I was thinking the same thing...High volume production facilities get pinched in a few places, all of which are easily mitigated if you have the funds to mitigate the risk.

Places that I'd spend a few extra dollars to ensure the lines ran smoothly at all hours of the year:

1. Agility - Like replacement parts and engineers on hand that can switch out long lead parts for heavy machinery very quickly.
2. Stamina - As in, the ability for the line to run just as well in the 98 hour as it did in the 1st hour.
3. Replication - Bringing up a 2nd, 3rd or 4th line to operate in a more efficient manner than the prior line.
4. Prediction - Algorithms are key to hitting your KPI's.
5. Morale - Nothing else is as important as the health and well being of your human components. High morale can achieve any goal. High pay and long hours only will get you so far.

 

[bonnie]

I was thinking the same thing...High volume production facilities get pinched in a few places, all of which are easily mitigated if you have the funds to mitigate the risk.

Places that I'd spend a few extra dollars to ensure the lines ran smoothly at all hours of the year:

1. Agility - Like replacement parts and engineers on hand that can switch out long lead parts for heavy machinery very quickly.
2. Stamina - As in, the ability for the line to run just as well in the 98 hour as it did in the 1st hour.
3. Replication - Bringing up a 2nd, 3rd or 4th line to operate in a more efficient manner than the prior line.
4. Prediction - Algorithms are key to hitting your KPI's.
5. Morale - Nothing else is as important as the health and well being of your human components. High morale can achieve any goal. High pay and long hours only will get you so far.

and 6. Single Points of Failure, with identified mitigation

 

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

 

[daniel]

If it's the human processes, you can easily hire more people without adding equipment.

But the equipment can only run 24 hours a day. Once it's running constantly, you'd have to add more. Then there's this: Maybe you could fill a shift with people who like to work at night, but it will impact morale if people have to work unpleasant hours. And swing shifts are well known to be both physically and emotionally damaging. So you might choose not to add a third shift, and add another line instead.

 

[jerry33]

But the equipment can only run 24 hours a day. Once it's running constantly, you'd have to add more. Then there's this: Maybe you could fill a shift with people who like to work at night, but it will impact morale if people have to work unpleasant hours. And swing shifts are well known to be both physically and emotionally damaging. So you might choose not to add a third shift, and add another line instead.

You are correct, but I was envisioning adding more people to the manual parts of a single line of production to enable them to keep up with the robots. The original question was about adding equipment. (I seriously doubt that the stamping presses will ever be stressed until the production area fills the entire factory.)

 

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

 

[jerry33]

Without adding more body assembly and/or painting robots, I doubt you could keep up to the stamping presses. However, more people would likely be necessary if the body assembly robots were working at full capacity.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

There's a substantial number of qualified folks around the Fremont factory who can man additional shifts/assembly lines. I think Tesla brought back less than a tenth of the NUMMI workforce who used to churn out half-a-million Corollas and Tacomas per year.

 

[ckessel]

If it's the human processes, you can easily hire more people without adding equipment.

Yea, the wall would presumably be equipment. Tesla uses a small part of a factory that produced nearly 500,000 cars, so it seems reasonable to think that they'd need to fill more of the factory to start producing in large quantities and thus would need machines to fill those other parts of the factory.

 

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

 

[zack]

Don't forget all of the drive trains.

How much profit could the Supercharger stations make?

 

[Fr23shjive]

Don't forget all of the drive trains.

How much profit could the Supercharger stations make?

The factory and equipment that they got at a huge discount are probably worth a pretty penny. Their patents are probably their most valuable asset. Factoring future growth into the stock price will probably add a couple bucks to the stock price too.

 

[jerry33]

How much profit could the Supercharger stations make?

I'm not sure the supercharger stations will make money (at least not from charging). However, the supercharging stations are what will turn the Model S into a real car acceptable by a majority of the public.

 

[Thumper]

I suspect it will be quite a while before more than a token amount is paid out as dividends. Tesla needs to keep most growth capital in the company. They have very ambitious plans. I am happy with that. What do others think?

 

[jerry33]

I suspect it will be quite a while before more than a token amount is paid out as dividends. Tesla needs to keep most growth capital in the company. They have very ambitious plans. I am happy with that. What do others think?

Apple did well not giving out dividends for years. Now that the bean-counters have taken over, I'm not so certain what will happen.

 

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

 

[JRP3]

Dividend is crazy talk at this point.

 

[erha]

Just a thought. If Elon did push out a dividend that would crush the shorts.

I don't think so. Tesla is not making money yet, so if they paid out dividends today it would have to be from the DOE loan or something like that. I think we would see even more shorts because Tesla clearly doesn't know what they are doing financially. In two years maybe they could pay out a small dividend if all loans have been paid off and there's no need for huge investments