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Generally speaking, options are not part of a 'buy and hold' strategy. By their very nature, options are used for trading as they have a finite horizon (to expiry). Thus, you shouldn't trade options without monitoring the position actively.

Another strategy is to use options to enhance investment earnings, especially in a buy and hold strategy with a volatile stock (e.g., TSLA). Again, the position must be monitored.

1) If TSLA is above $32 on Dec 21, 100 shares will be called. You'll make $32 (strike price) - $30 (what you paid) + $0.90 (what you sold the call for) = $2.90/share

Given TSLA is trading ~$28.00, if it rises to ~$32.00 then, as expiration approaches, the option will become close to its intrinsic value (market price less strike price). However, the stock must be rising and the option one month out will have the same intrinsic value plus a time value. With a volatile stock, such as TSLA, usually you can raise the strike price by $1.00 and sell and new position one month out for more than it costs to close the existing position. Thus, you don't limit your upside, you raise it and push it out. However, sometimes it can cost you more to close the position and open a new position at a higher strike price.

All you've really done is limit your upside to $2.90 by taking $0.90 up front. If TSLA goes to $40, you're still selling at $32.90.

As noted above, this scenario occurs when you stop trading the position and let the in-the-money expiration occur. This can happen when you require liquidity and don't have time to push the option out.


Insurance will limit your losses, not guarantee a profit.

Absolutely. The funny thing about insurance is that, when you lose one hand, you win on the insurance. Conversely, when you win on one hand, you lose on the insurance.
 
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Hi everyone,

I am considering buying some shares in Tesla, a small amount - long - as I believe in the mission and the product.

I was just wondering what you think about buying before or after the upcoming quarterly report. I am not investing a huge amount, I'm a student but earned a little money over summer that I have set aside and want to put it to better use than sitting around in a current account.

Presumably there is normally a bit of a reaction to these reports? And judging by what Elon stated about 'cash flow positive' by the end of the month (or next month?), would that mean that the upcoming report will still show negative things or slowly becoming positive things?

A few possibly confused questions, I apologise. I have read quite a bit of this thread and hope this isn't too mundane to post here ;-)

Charlie -

Be careful trading ahead of a quarterly report. As a general rule of thumb, I don't trade this close to a report. You never know what might be said during that conference call or how it might be interpreted. You are right, they might announce that they are cash flow positive, but if that is followed up by "we might only get 1500 cars out this year" then God only knows what the stock will do.

You never can tell, so unless you have tremendous conviction, stay away from these couple days on either side of a quarterly.

Now, if you can stomach the volatility and don't plan on touching that money for a dozen years, then just go ahead and buy. The couple dollars that it might move between now and a few weeks from now is going to be trivial when you look at such a long period of time.
 
Be careful trading ahead of a quarterly report. As a general rule of thumb, I don't trade this close to a report. You never know what might be said during that conference call or how it might be interpreted. You are right, they might announce that they are cash flow positive, but if that is followed up by "we might only get 1500 cars out this year" then God only knows what the stock will do.
Given they're going to still be delivering Sigs at the end of November based on emails/dates folks are getting, it seems they'll almost certainly have to announce another major reduction in expected Q4 deliveries. It seems like a best case is they suddenly ramp to 400/week for Ps and ship only ~2500 cars in Q4.
 
Seems you weren't completely alone. 8^|
Yep, I'm torn. I'm underwater right now so part of me hates to sell, but the other part is having a hard time envisioning how Tesla could have any good news in the 3rd quarter announcements. Maybe best to cut my losses and hope to pick up shares again later. Then I've got the bulk of my shares that hit the 1 year mark in January, so it'd have to drop by enough to justify giving up capital gains tax (on eventual positive value) vs. resetting the clock.
 
Given they're going to still be delivering Sigs at the end of November based on emails/dates folks are getting, it seems they'll almost certainly have to announce another major reduction in expected Q4 deliveries. It seems like a best case is they suddenly ramp to 400/week for Ps and ship only ~2500 cars in Q4.

I didn't mean to suggest that I thought this was a possible outcome, just that you can really get blindsided by quarterly reports and conference calls.
 
I sold my entire stake in TSLA this morning, I think the market reaction to decreased deliveries could be very negative...

And what now if your fears do not materialize? The only reason to sell 100% of your position is if you are 100% certain the stock will go down and 100% percent certain that you are nimble enough to get back in. That is unlikely.

By all means, take profits if you fear a decline coming, but keep them proportional to your confidence in your predictions.
 
TSLA pushed their Q3 earnings announcement out by a week, from Monday 10/29/12 to Monday 11/05/12. This indicates, to me, that they want to provide positive news on production and customer delivery rates when they announce their earnings and give guidance on Q4.

We should know how the the numbers look for customer deliveries in another two weeks, which will be a better indicator of what to expect in the actual earnings call.

The markets will certainly react to confirmed news by TSLA, one way or another.

Oh, election day is Tuesday, 11/06/12. That may shake things up, too.
 
Oh, election day is Tuesday, 11/06/12. That may shake things up, too.

It is a good way to hide the news, or at least only have it on a one day news cycle. I'm long on TSLA but don't think its going to be a good news week for them. My gut says they are getting close to good news to report, but just not this month.

edit: if they can convey this confidence of future good news, then it won't hurt the stock too much.
 
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By all means, take profits if you fear a decline coming, but keep them proportional to your confidence in your predictions.
Well, that depends on your tolerance and the bankroll behind your investing. Coming from a poker background, if you think a play is +EV then you should mathematically put as much into it as possible to maximize your profit. The caveat is having a bankroll sufficient to adapt to swings when you're wrong/unlucky.
 
That's only half the story. They've sold most of their assets to Johnson Controls. The A123 battery technology has found a better home.

That's great! Johnson Controls has been good for my portfolio. A solid respectable company that will definitely use any useable tech that A123 has come up with. IMO

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Back OT, the only way I sell at a loss is if I need to take the loss to bump me down a tax bracket and if the company doesn't look like it will bounce back up very soon. I'm sticking to Tesla, and my avg. purchase price is around $26.00. If it drops lower than that, I'm probably putting more in. But of course, like any volatile stock, I'd never put money into Tesla I can't afford to lose!
 
Agree. It's looking more like a Romney win which will hurt Tesla, plus the likely announcement of slow production ramp up, could provide a major TSLA smack down. I've been considering selling in advance but will probably just hang on and buy more on the drop.

A change in leadership would likely create even more economic uncertainty than staying with the incumbent. I know that I'll hunker down for a long time if there is a change.
The impacts of the last Republican White House really instilled fear in my portfolio.
 
Agree. It's looking more like a Romney win which will hurt Tesla, plus the likely announcement of slow production ramp up, could provide a major TSLA smack down. I've been considering selling in advance but will probably just hang on and buy more on the drop.
If Romney wins, Tesla will be slightly poorer as I'll be abandoning my reservation and holding all cash in hopes of financially surviving. Every Republican presidency for 30 years has started or escalated wars (W going for bonus points starting two) spending massively to do so.

Romney and/or his advisers have already stated they think we should attack Iran and perhaps Syria. He's already been promising to raise military spending. I'm tremendously nervous, more than at any point in my life. An economy on the edge already and the election of another war hungry president, an ugly combination.
 
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If Romney wins, Tesla will be slightly poorer as I'll be abandoning my reservation and holding all cash in hopes of financially surviving. Every Republican presidency for 30 years has started or escalated wars (W going for bonus points starting two) spending massively to do so.

Romney and/or his advisers have already stated they think we should attack Iran and perhaps Syria. He's already been promising to raise military spending. I'm tremendously nervous, more than at any point in my life. An economy on the edge already and the election of another war hungry president, an ugly combination.

On the flip side, attacks on oil countries only raises gas prices so wouldn't that make TM that much stronger? More than offsetting a Republican dictator...I mean president :rolleyes:
 
If Romney wins, Tesla will be slightly poorer as I'll be abandoning my reservation and holding all cash in hopes of financially surviving. Every Republican presidency for 30 years has started or escalated wars (W going for bonus points starting two) spending massively to do so.

Wow. You're kidding, right? If you base your car buying on who's in the white house, you definately are looking at the wrong car. I've bought cars over the last 45 years (at least 10 off the top of my head) based on my needs and/or wants and could care less who held the presidency.
 
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