The Tesla Motors mass market car....???

[Grendal]

However I think Tesla won't go below a range of 150 miles for the base model, or so, also since by 2015 the Leaf will likely have a larger range as well. And if the price for a 150 mile pack is still high then, I think they will rather sell it for a higher price at first, than reduce the range further, consistent with their current strategy to offer good products without too many compromises.

My bet for the 2015 Leaf is for a 20% increase in range. The pack will be physically the same size and shape but the batteries will hold 28-30kWh. So I predict their range to be 90-100 miles realistically compared to their 73 miles now. Just MHO.

My guess for the Tesla Bluestar will be 150+ range with 120+ miles under realistic highway speeds. That's for the base level.

 

[Doug_G]

I don't think it would be compelling without a 200 mile nominal range...

 

[vfx]

...
I'm guessing that besides having a few things on their plate ahead of the Gen III vehicle, that they will wait whatever time it takes for battery advances in performance and cost to permit building a compelling mass market car that will have a range over 200 miles and cost around $35,000.

....

"Waiting" being a relative term.

Tesla could build a Gen III Alpha next summer, show it around for a year, build a Beta, show IT around for a year, all to keep the public (and us) hyped up and meanwhile waiting for two more of the yearly 8 to 14 percent battery improvement iterations before they place battery ordes, start crash testing, EPA certification, etc. Who knows, this may be what Tesla did with the Model S. Calculate to a certain extent what the next next gen batteries will be and base range claims on that.

 

[Larry Chanin]

"Waiting" being a relative term.

Tesla could build a Gen III Alpha next summer, show it around for a year, build a Beta, show IT around for a year, all to keep the public (and us) hyped up and meanwhile waiting for two more of the yearly 8 to 14 percent battery improvement iterations before they place battery ordes, start crash testing, EPA certification, etc. Who knows, this may be what Tesla did with the Model S. Calculate to a certain extent what the next next gen batteries will be and base range claims on that.

Yes, if Tesla is serious about the mass market car, then it would be prudent to do some developmental work particularly IF the staff is on the payroll anyway. My only point has been that it would be unwise to prematurely start production of Gen III if conditions are not right.

In addition to lower battery costs, other conditions effecting profitability of the Gen III will be the degree of charger infrastructure available, gasoline prices, and the public's general attitude toward EVs.

Larry

 

[jkirkebo]

Going by those numbers I'd think that Tesla should make the Bluestar a mid-sized sedan. Tesla is a worldwide brand - so that should definitely alter the overall equation. But it should be easy to keep their luxury status with a mid-sized sedan. I think it's trickier to convince someone a compact car is a luxury car.

A sedan would certainly sell well in the US but not in western Europe. Smaller sedans have a miniscule market share over here, the size segment is dominated by hatchbacks, wagons, MPVs and CUVs.

I would not consider the Model S if it were a sedan and not a hatchback. Too impractical.

Small sedans sell well in Asia though.

 

[jerry33]

Presumably, it would be a mini-Model S. While I'm not keen on the 19th century styling, having two cars that look similar except in size would go a long way towards brand recognition.

 

[jkirkebo]

Presumably, it would be a mini-Model S. While I'm not keen on the 19th century styling, having two cars that look similar except in size would go a long way towards brand recognition.

The sloping hatchback sedan-like style of the Model S works well in a large car. In a smaller car I fear trunk space will be too small and rear headroom will also suffer. Better to make it a real hatchback with a higher roofline.

 

[jerry33]

The sloping hatchback sedan-like style of the Model S works well in a large car. In a smaller car I fear trunk space will be too small and rear headroom will also suffer. Better to make it a real hatchback with a higher roofline.

I was thinking of the front more than the back.

 

[jkirkebo]

I was thinking of the front more than the back.

Same problem there. To achieve good interior space with a small exterior you can't have a long hood. The hood must be shorter, and the windshield & cabin moved further forward.

I fear smaller copy of the Model S would be very impratical. Just take the Volt vs. Leaf example. The Volt is a sedan and longer than the Leaf. The hatchback Leaf has MUCH better interior space. The Volt/Ampera is very cramped, just try the backseat. You'll have loads more leg space in the Leaf.

Cramped, impractical cars will not sell in large numbers over here.

 

[EVNow]

My bet for the 2015 Leaf is for a 20% increase in range. The pack will be physically the same size and shape but the batteries will hold 28-30kWh. So I predict their range to be 90-100 miles realistically compared to their 73 miles now. Just MHO.

So you think their energy density will increase by 20% in 5 years or less than 4% increase per year ?!

I think in 5 years they will have a couple of range options. The base with the current 24 kWh battery but for about $25k (without tax credits - which anyway may have expired by then). A larger pack with some 150 or 200 mile range as an option for about $35k.

 

[stopcrazypp]

So you think their energy density will increase by 20% in 5 years or less than 4% increase per year ?!

I think in 5 years they will have a couple of range options. The base with the current 24 kWh battery but for about $25k (without tax credits - which anyway may have expired by then). A larger pack with some 150 or 200 mile range as an option for about $35k.

So far the 8% per year only applies to 18650s (with new cells coming out basically every year from Panasonic). It's hard to tell how fast automotive cells will improve (esp. in terms of reaching the market). They first have to use up the older cells and it'll take a while given the current low volumes of BEVs. For Nissan specifically, it'll depend on how far they get with their NMC chemistry (they originally planned 2015).

 

[strider]

Tesla could build a Gen III Alpha next summer, show it around for a year, build a Beta, show IT around for a year, all to keep the public (and us) hyped up and meanwhile waiting for two more of the yearly 8 to 14 percent battery improvement iterations before they place battery ordes, start crash testing, EPA certification, etc. Who knows, this may be what Tesla did with the Model S. Calculate to a certain extent what the next next gen batteries will be and base range claims on that.

This would be a very bad idea IMO. It would cannibalize higher margin X and S sales as people will wait for the "cheaper" car. Sell what's on the apple cart - selling futures is bad for business. Heck I think they brought out Model X too early and a number of people switched from S to X.

 

[BYT_P1837]

The Model X is a tank in my opinion and I don't need AWD so the Model S is still perfect and I wouldn't ever change to that. Besides, I can't wait another year at this point!

 

[Grendal]

So you think their energy density will increase by 20% in 5 years or less than 4% increase per year ?!

I think in 5 years they will have a couple of range options. The base with the current 24 kWh battery but for about $25k (without tax credits - which anyway may have expired by then). A larger pack with some 150 or 200 mile range as an option for about $35k.

Tesla is a small company trying to build a cutting edge car. Tesla will push for every advance and advantage they can, while Nissan is a large old conservative company. That's why I'm being conservative in battery advances for the Leaf. So I'll stick with my prediction and also say they won't have range choices until Leaf Mk. III (2018-ish). The reason they will even offer range choices is because Tesla will have, by that time, shown that offering battery choices is a successful business strategy.

And to get back on the Mass Market/Bluestar topic, DougG said the Bluestar wouldn't be compelling without a 200 mile pack. I don't see how Tesla can have the starting pack be 200 miles. It doesn't strike me as monetarily feasible at a $35K starting price. I'll stick with my prediction there as well: 150 miles at 55 MPH or 120 realistic highway miles for the starting pack. Tesla will offer pack upgrades for an increase in price just like the Model S and Model X.

 

[Grendal]

It would cannibalize higher margin X and S sales as people will wait for the "cheaper" car. Sell what's on the apple cart - selling futures is bad for business.

I agree that premature showing of the Bluestar is not a good idea for lots of reasons. The current timeline for the Bluestar is 2015 at the earliest and a 2014 premiere should not be too early or hurt Model S or Model X sales.

Heck I think they brought out Model X too early and a number of people switched from S to X.

Disagree with you there. If someone switched it's because they thought the X was more appropriate for them. And there are a lot of people that are now buying both.

 

[Norbert]

I'll stick with my prediction there as well: 150 miles at 55 MPH or 120 realistic highway miles for the starting pack. Tesla will offer pack upgrades for an increase in price just like the Model S and Model X.

I could see that, however it really needs a >200 mile option from the beginning. I could also imagine that they start with a more-premium higher priced low volume version, yet same design/body, as a test balloon.

 

[Grendal]

I could see that, however it really needs a >200 mile option from the beginning. I could also imagine that they start with a more-premium higher priced low volume version, yet same design/body, as a test balloon.

If what you're saying is that they do the same type of rollout of the Bluestar/Mass Market as they did with the Model S and the Model X then I absolutely agree. There should be similar upgrade in pack/performance such as 150/210/275 mile versions with Signature and performance options. The base model being $35K and a Signature performance version at $60K+. I don't see any reason to distance themselves from their current marketing/selling strategy.

 

[tdelta1000]

Will the automotive market ever see a mass market car designed and built by Tesla Motors??? I'm not sure but I would i like to see that happen. In the past 18 months, I have seen several manufacture design and in some cases put small and cheap EVs on the road. Will TM be able to compete in this arena? If TM is going for an SUV and then a Coupe when will we expect to see a TM mass market EV? Just had some questions.

Having taken a step back and rethinking my initial question, I think Tesla will reach the goal of producing a 3 series, Fisker Atlantic, and Ford Fusion fighter in the near future but it will be done in a very calculated fashion. Tesla will used the S and X to button up their production line, TM will use their current battery management technology to maximize current and future battery chemistry and finally Mr. Musk has made it his goal.