Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sunwarriors]

They can repurchase their debt back instead of buying their shares.
At 6% their debt has a 15 p/e vs their stock a 30 p/ e.

But the debt isn't 6%. Why close debt if some/most of those are in the 1-3% range when interest rates are in the 6-8% range?

I think someone posted they have FCF of 100-150 billion a year. They will generate and print more cash every year.

https://www.financecharts.com/stocks/AAPL/growth/free-cash-flow

Do you have a mortgage? I do under 3%; should I purchase that debt even if I can? We can get guaranteed 5%+ from any CD/treasury now. They also lower their PE by buying back stock. I assume the army of financial folks at Apple (and Tesla or most companies) knows what they are doing. Even Elon mentioned a buyback on the call. If Elon does it, that's genius, but anyone else, and that's dumb?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

We voted along board recommendations although a couple things I feel I am poorly informed on.

The last one regarding deep sea resources etc caught us off guard. Not much in the news about that, or at least the sources we use. Just an observation.

 

[Doggydogworld]

They can repurchase their debt back instead of buying their shares.
At 6% their debt has a 15 p/e vs their stock a 30 p/ e.

This math only makes sense if earnings are constant. If earnings grow it may be better to repurchase stock even at 30 p/e.
Also, they can't effectively repurchase those low coupon bonds at 6% YTM. If covenants allow they could in theory buy some via tender offer at a premium to market, e.g. something like 5.0-5.5% YTM. In reality that almost never happens.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

It is irrelevant to a vote about reaffirming a plan that is not in any way associated with the current period of time.

That would be a consideration for the next compensation package, which still has not been proposed.

I think it's relevant. Just like it's relevant that he's threatened to take parts of Tesla elsewhere. Also, He helped tank the stock with selling massive amounts of shares on the open market. I don't think all of his political tweets have helped the stock price either, or not turned people off from buying Tesla products. It's one thing to buy twitter and uphold free speech which I commend him for. If the current stock price is below where it needed to be to get his compensation package that is relevant. I'm not saying it is below that price, I'm just asking if it is or not. I want Elon to stay with Tesla, and that is relevant too. I plan on voting yes, but I would like to be more sure that it's the right way to vote.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Bought some more $TSLA at $180 today after sending in my proxy votes in support of the board.

 

[Curt Renz]

My stock brokerage emailed my Tesla voting material early yesterday evening.
I will hold off on my voting until closer to the shareholder meeting. Some items may eventually be found to have deeper meanings.
I will be carefully studying each item. I'll review BoD recommendations and contrary advice from other sources. No impulsiveness here.
I expect my final votes will likely be somewhat mixed compared with any recommendations.
Please understand that I do not care to discuss my current leanings at this time.

 

[jerry33]

Funny how you don't mention Texas is also the leading state in Solar and Wind energy production.

Despite the Legislature's attempts to limit solar and BEVs. Eventually they will realize that you can't stop the flood with punishment.

 

[mongo]

Interesting module on the table with its cover off... looks like either switching or an inverter. What's most interesting is that the tray under the cover seems about half empty:

View attachment 1044021

Cells removed? Doesn't seem like it...

Megapack 2XL has one 3 phase inverter per battery block (three modules) and slots into the container bankplane.
The pair of connections are likely the links to the modules.

 

[lafrisbee]

Someone got any real insight as to what I just experienced/noticed?

This was the first time I did not have to go hunting for a way to vote my TSLA shares. I literally clicked on an email and was taken to an easily understood voting "ballot." ANd the votes were recorded without any worries as to whether it was counted.
Every other year I had to go hunt down a way to get my votes counted.

Just new software (improvements)?

 

[Drax7]

But the debt isn't 6%. Why close debt if some/most of those are in the 1-3% range when interest rates are in the 6-8% range?

I think someone posted they have FCF of 100-150 billion a year. They will generate and print more cash every year.

https://www.financecharts.com/stocks/AAPL/growth/free-cash-flow

Do you have a mortgage? I do under 3%; should I purchase that debt even if I can? We can get guaranteed 5%+ from any CD/treasury now. They also lower their PE by buying back stock. I assume the army of financial folks at Apple (and Tesla or most companies) knows what they are doing. Even Elon mentioned a buyback on the call. If Elon does it, that's genius, but anyone else, and that's dumb?

The bonds they issue are trading way below par, they would be buying them
At a bargain. It’s just a matter of how risk averse one may be, I
Despise debt, hence carry no debt.
Seems Elon too dislikes debt.

 

[jerry33]

Someone got any real insight as to what I just experienced/noticed?

This was the first time I did not have to go hunting for a way to vote my TSLA shares. I literally clicked on an email and was taken to an easily understood voting "ballot." ANd the votes were recorded without any worries as to whether it was counted.
Every other year I had to go hunt down a way to get my votes counted.

Just new software (improvements)?

TDA has been that way for several years.

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786409010507202987

 

[2daMoon]

I think it's relevant. Just like it's relevant that he's threatened to take parts of Tesla elsewhere. Also, He helped tank the stock with selling massive amounts of shares on the open market. I don't think all of his political tweets have helped the stock price either, or not turned people off from buying Tesla products. It's one thing to buy twitter and uphold free speech which I commend him for. If the current stock price is below where it needed to be to get his compensation package that is relevant. I'm not saying it is below that price, I'm just asking if it is or not. I want Elon to stay with Tesla, and that is relevant too. I plan on voting yes, but I would like to be more sure that it's the right way to vote.

First,

The decision to offer Elon the package in 2018 should be based on company performance. How was it performing at that time? How was it performing at the end of the pay package term?​

​

This is a unique situation where we actually get to apply that elusive 20/20 hindsight. If, when the original vote happened, we could see what the company performance would be like under Elon's command through the end of the period specified for the contract, would any shareholder in their right mind not vote for the package?​

​

This is the extent of which facts should be applied to determine this vote.​

​

All personal bias which might be based on feelings being hurt by social media posts, or someone's personal interpretations of political aspects, are at their root emotional choices. Rather than choices based upon the company performance over this period of time the package applies to.​

Second,

Would anyone think that punishing Elon by taking away his pay for that period is justified in any way if the choice is strictly due to an emotional bias related to things that can never have a direct impact on past company performance? Such a reason for a No vote would be both irrational and illogical.​

Third,

How would voting against the 2018 pay package possibly offer any benefit to Tesla, TSLA, or the stakeholders in a way that could outweigh the risk of losing Elon's future commitment to the undisputed talents that created Tesla to begin with?​

​

If there is no substantial benefit based in company performance to be gained from voting No, that alone should seal the Yes vote.​

​

The term, "Shooting oneself in the foot" comes to mind when considering a No vote. I can think of nothing good for the company and the shareholders that would come from making that choice.

Hope this helps.

 

[MP3Mike]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786409010507202987

I'm not sure that is even accurate. And if it is, I don't know that it matters. Last I heard the pack was still assembled in China, which would exclude it from qualifying. (But I though the LG cells were made in China as well.)

 

[CHGolferJim]

So what's the best explanation for the slowdown in Tesla's sales, when they keep lowering ASP and improving offering, while ICE sales don't drop as much/fast?

This scenario goes clearly against my bullish thesis and I'm unable to provide satisfying answers to the questions I get. I've ready the vast majority of posts in this thread but can't find a summary of the best arguments (by investors).

I know about the official reasons for the YoY issues – red sea conflict and arson attack – but the layoff we're hearing about seem far more structural than the "operational efficiency" program the management is telling us about.

Thinking there is a lot to the idea that interest rate differentials vs. other companies’ financing are making Tesla monthly payments uncompetitive for people that finance and have less than ample income.

 

[2daMoon]

Despite the Legislature's attempts to limit solar and BEVs. Eventually they will realize that you can't stop the flood with punishment.

Texas is full of businessmen (and women). They are in as competitive a marketplace as any. Just like when analyzing stocks, they do not limit their choices for the future by looking at what worked in the past.

Sure, Texas was built on oil in the most recent history. That is already beginning a slow taper off as the disruption of renewable energy is being acted upon in Texas by business leaders who see the future.

California was the leader just a year or two ago and Texas has caught and passed them to take the lead. So, sure, nobody could imagine an "oil state" like Texas to be in this position.

That doesn't change the fact that these Texas business people are where they are today because those visionaries made the investment years ago to take advantage of the coming disruption.

 

[DarkandStormy]

The term, "Shooting oneself in the foot" comes to mind when considering a No vote. I can think of nothing good for the company and the shareholders that would come from making that choice.​

Did dilution factor into your decision?

 

[FreqFlyer]

The AI Rat Race.... Everyone is pouring money into AI. Could explain some Tesla's latest moves.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/ai-engineers-face-burnout-as-rat-race-to-stay-competitive-hits-tech.html

 

[inconel]

Those of you wondering about the SP....and why it can't stay above 180...

Stock Option Max Pain

maximum-pain.com

Max pain of course....tail continues to wag the dog.

It seems to be kept barely above 180. Is WS going to hammer it below 180 right before the close?

 

[inconel]

Did dilution factor into your decision?

How do we explain the sell-off when the judge decision to void the original compensation plan was released? Shares should have shot up from the dilution pov.