Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

John Carmisa said 30 in his review.

I can't find that reference. Are you referring to this: "However, with the cover down, the truck has a coefficient of drag of around 0.335, which is a 25 percent improvement over the show car, which was unveiled in 2019."?
Show car was larger, it's not a pure cover open/ close change.

First Tesla Cybertruck Reviews Are In, Here's What They're Saying | Carscoops

 

[EVNow]

Have yo ever rented a truck . . . . I have and it's bl....dy expensive, you could easily put it down as a deposit for new truck.

No I haven’t- why would I ?

But I can check online - and a 1 ton PU truck is about $800 a week currently near me in Enterprise. A std SUV is $450 and F150 is $420. No doubt you can find better deals.

If you are going to use it twice a year, I’d not call it bloody expensive.

 

[FastEddieB]

Have yo ever rented a truck . . . . I have and it's bl....dy expensive, you could easily put it down as a deposit for new truck.

I guess it depends of the truck.

I just checked U-Haul and a standard pickup goes for $19.95/day plus 69¢ a mile.

 

[Snerruc]

Trying to change the subject——- Does anybody know how Fremont is getting along with the changeover to Highland?

 

[dhanson865]

Cyber is longer, which increases Cd.

The rest of that post was good, but longer vehicles have less drag, not more.

 

[dhanson865]

From what I've read, before.

The CT takes a 30% range hit with the cover open.

The number from the reviews is 10%. It's a factor but no where near as high as 30%.

 

[BornToFly]

Jason was one of three people that had access to the truck and Tesla engineers prior to Thursday. Amazing video. Covers everything from crash testing, to 48V architecture, to castings and exoskeleton, etc. Worth watching the entire episode. Bottom line - Tesla WAS ten years ahead of everyone else, and they just smoked legacy even more with Cyber.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That 30K and 78K delivery projection both look very reasonable.

No, it's not reasonable at all. Telsa produced 10M 4680 cells from Jun 17 to Oct 11 (116 days).

At 90 Wh/cell and 123 KWh used per CT, that's enough cell production for 7,300 Cybertrucks, which is an avg of 63 per day, or 23K per year.

30K next year is an average of 3K per month, which means with a linear ramp they should end Dec 2024 with a production rate of 7k to 8k. Not an easy task for any company.

Tesla plans to build 8 cell lines at Giga Texas. Each is sized for 25 GWh/yr capacity. One line is running now, three more are undergoing installation as we speak, they hope to get all eight installed by end of 2024.

Let's say the 1st line capacity is at only 20 GWh/yr (given v2 cell energy), and its running only half the time. That's still 10 GWh/yr output, which at 123 KWh/pack is enough cells for 80K CT in 2024. That's at half speed on 1 line, with none of the other 3 lines contributing a single cell in 2024 (highly unlikely).

More reasonable is 40K CTs in 2024 H1 supported just by Cell Line No.1, then another line going into production each quarter until 4 are in producion by EOY 2024. That's enough cell capacity for at least 120K CTs in 2024, and that's still being very, very conservative on uptime assumptions. If things go well with the battery line installations, the CT production ramp could increase much faster.

IMO it's much more likely that Morgan Stanley made their 30K projection based on the worst possible scenario, that being 4680 cell production would not exceed Jun-Oct production levels, that there would be no progress. I call that an unreasoned assumption, and more likely deliberately deceptive.

Remember what Ron Baron told us in October: Adam Jonas's clients are mostly Hedge Funds. Those CT projections were published to satisfy his customers, not in any serious attempt to estimate CT production accurately.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I can't find that reference. Are you referring to this: "However, with the cover down, the truck has a coefficient of drag of around 0.335, which is a 25 percent improvement over the show car, which was unveiled in 2019."?
Show car was larger, it's not a pure cover open/ close change.

First Tesla Cybertruck Reviews Are In, Here's What They're Saying | Carscoops

Maybe so.

 

[Todd Burch]

The rest of that post was good, but longer vehicles have less drag, not more.

Not always. I think this is why Mongo said “it depends what you do with the length”. (Yes, that’s what she said).

For a given shape, simply increasing its length generally reduces drag coefficient. But that is generally in a lower Reynolds number regime (flow is laminar, or smooth).

But as Reynolds number increases—car goes faster or the air is more turbulent, this effect drops off. In those cases the increased exposure of the surface to the air can have more of an effect. There’s no way to know how without a CFD simulation though. Either way, length is not a major factor compared to other things.

 

[scaesare]

Source: I’m a mechanical engineer and pilot and therefore have taken several fluid dynamics and aero classes, but do not claim to be an aero expert:

Sharp angles cause separation of the airflow at the angle, which indices turbulence and increases induced drag.

Stainless is less smooth than a painted surface, so there are some losses there due to body material choice.

The inability to do a lot of curvature on the body prevents you from following the airflow, which again induces separation at the surface, turbulence, and induced drag.

Cyber is longer, which increases Cd.

All the angular wheel arches, etc are less ideal than a gradually curved surface.

Cybertruck still has a vertical (but slightly curved) front fascia.

Wiper is not concealed out of the airflow. It’s probably better to have the wiper there than not, given the flat panels, to help guide airflow around the edge of the windshield, but not as good as a concealed wiper with more complex body panels that can guide airflow better.

Frontal area is NOT part of the Cd equation, but is a factor in total drag *force*.

The tonneau cover has to be a big contributor to the good numbers as it prevents air over the roof from backfilling into eddies in the low pressure truck bed area. But the tonneau cover is still ribbed, so will induce some turbulent airflow over it.

Frankly, it’s great that the CT’s drag coefficient is as close to the Rivian’s as it is.

Agreed overall.

Just will point out that smooth surfaces aren't necessarily always better for aero.

See this NASA article for some discussion and experimental data.

One of the reasons golf balls have dimples and race cars will have vortex generators. Shark skin, which is rather rough, has a similar effect in water.

 

[scaesare]

Have yo ever rented a truck . . . . I have and it's bl....dy expensive, you could easily put it down as a deposit for new truck.

And the ones you can rent I wouldn't necessarily trust to pull my travel trailer and want to pile family in for a week.

 

[gillfoto]

I guess it depends of the truck.

I just checked U-Haul and a standard pickup goes for $19.95/day plus 69¢ a mile.

Check the fine print

 

[EVNow]

More reasonable is 40K CTs in 2024 H1 supported just by Cell Line No.1, then another line going into production each quarter until 4 are in producion by EOY 2024. That's enough cell capacity for at least 120K CTs in 2024, and that's still being very, very conservative on uptime assumptions. If things go well with the battery line installations, the CT production ramp could increase much faster.

Are there any other constraints apart from battery cells ?

I’m more worried about all the other thousand things that could slow down production- given how new a lot of the technology is. X production ramp didn’t slow down because of battery shortage…

 

[Captkerosene]

Lots to talk about with CT, so I'll summarize:

- Drives like a Ferrari.
- Smooth as a Rolls.
- Quiet as a concert hall.
- Pulls better than a diesel.
- Tough as a Sherman tank.
- Consumes 1/3 the energy of a normal truck.
- Beautiful panoramic view of the world.
- Safe as a cement truck. (Your results may vary.)
- Priced like other nice trucks.
- Great warranty.
- Works as a backup power source for your house.
- Equipped with the hardware for full autonomy at a 7K price. (early orders)

This truck is a technological marvel at a very attractive price given it's capabilities.

Elon and team DELIVERED.

 

[Todd Burch]

Chuck Cook was at the factory on Thursday. He just made a comment in his latest FSD video on YouTube that, while factory line workers were mum on numbers, he got the impression they were happy with the way the ramp was going.

 

[powertoold]

Not always. I think this is why Mongo said “it depends what you do with the length”. (Yes, that’s what she said).

For a given shape, simply increasing its length generally reduces drag coefficient. But that is generally in a lower Reynolds number regime (flow is laminar, or smooth).

But as Reynolds number increases—car goes faster or the air is more turbulent, this effect drops off. In those cases the increased exposure of the surface to the air can have more of an effect. There’s no way to know how without a CFD simulation though. Either way, length is not a major factor compared to other things.

Yes, the sharp edges, particularly on the roof of the CT with the downward slope, increase the drag a lot.

 

[navguy12]

Fair enough, and true enough. Others might not-in which case this isn't the right vehicle for them. No one vehicle is right for everyone-that's why we have choices. I don't see any EV replacing an F-350 diesel if you travel and live out of say a 40' 5th wheel, like a fair number of retirees do. Nor should it-pick the right tool for the job. An F-150 or Silverado 1500 isn't the right tool for that either. I expect the CT will be the right tool for a great many people because it does many (not all) things very well-things the vast majority of P/U owners use their rig for. And will be better than any other vehicle for those people. Lets face it-not THAT many people haul horse trailers-and depending on how many horses they are hauling, and how far, CT could still be fine. Would be nice for the horses not to suck gas/diesel fumes all day.

Can't wait to see how it plays out over the next couple of years. Especially as DCFC infrastructure builds out.

While on the exercise bike this morning, I watched a late model Dodge four door pickup truck park on the road just outside the window I was looking out of.

I immediately transposed that truck to the CyberTruck in my mind and watched the ensuing activity.

There were three chaps who got out, went to the the back and each pulled out a snow shovel (there was only the three snow shovels as a load in the box in the back).

The three chaps went to clear some snow in areas around our complex for about four minutes (minutiae that the larger plows didn’t clean up) while the truck remained on and idling.

The truck had a hitch receiver for what I assume is a trailer that would hold things like riding lawn mowers (and other yard equipment) and snow blowers…but there was no trailer today.

So in this scenario, I watched a yard maintenance pickup truck do stuff that, well, could also be done with a CyberTruck.

Anecdotal only, but tasks like what I just witnessed must surely be doable by the current CyberTruck offerings.

I suppose it will all come down to operational costs.

 

[Yelobird]

The number from the reviews is 10%. It's a factor but no where near as high as 30%.

Soooo, whichever number I would still contest that they may not be off on the lowest drag coefficient statement as I would wager that spec for Rivian was prior to terminating the failed tonneau cover.

 

[EVNow]

Anecdotal only, but tasks like what I just witnessed must surely be doable by the current CyberTruck offerings.

I suppose it will all come down to operational costs.

I think commercial use of CT (and other luxury trucks) will be limited because of the cost. Also, people who pay more are reluctant to put the vehicle to rough use ... that is expected in small businesses. May be in a few years when the costs come down and its proven to be reliable and cheap to operate.