Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

That 30K and 78K delivery projection both look very reasonable.

30K next year is an average of 3K per month, which means with a linear ramp they should end Dec 2024 with a production rate of 7k to 8k. Not an easy task for any company.

Ramps are not linear. Those numbers are undoubtedly too low. I bet they’re close to 10k per year RIGHT NOW. No way they only make 30K next year.

 

[Buckminster]

That 30K and 78K delivery projection both look very reasonable.

30K next year is an average of 3K per month, which means with a linear ramp they should end Dec 2024 with a production rate of 7k to 8k. Not an easy task for any company.

New poll:
Cybertruck Production Poll

 

[Tony73]

Have they already delivered to non-employees?
I see sandy has one but he could be a contractor somehow?

I think the thing many are looking at is whether or not the COGs for cybertruck get added to balance sheet in Q4 vs Q1. Was reading here I believe a note by @The Accountant that if the deliveries in TX and CA in December are at all to non-employees that it would trigger the COGs to be added for the R&D Q4 vs sometime in Q1.
I’m curious if employee deliveries payments and units sold are counted to the bottom line?
Where are we at with all of that and how might it effect EPS?

A sale is a sale. It does not if it is to an employee.
Not sure what “COGS to be added for R&D” means but the start of sales triggers the start of Depreciation on factory equipment.

 

[Todd Burch]

How is it that CT with that triangular shape specifically designed for aerodynamics, has worse CD than Rivian which is a traditional shaped truck ?

Source: I’m a mechanical engineer and pilot and therefore have taken several fluid dynamics and aero classes, but do not claim to be an aero expert:

Sharp angles cause separation of the airflow at the angle, which indices turbulence and increases induced drag.

Stainless is less smooth than a painted surface, so there are some losses there due to body material choice.

The inability to do a lot of curvature on the body prevents you from following the airflow, which again induces separation at the surface, turbulence, and induced drag.

Cyber is longer, which increases Cd.

All the angular wheel arches, etc are less ideal than a gradually curved surface.

Cybertruck still has a vertical (but slightly curved) front fascia.

Wiper is not concealed out of the airflow. It’s probably better to have the wiper there than not, given the flat panels, to help guide airflow around the edge of the windshield, but not as good as a concealed wiper with more complex body panels that can guide airflow better.

Frontal area is NOT part of the Cd equation, but is a factor in total drag *force*.

The tonneau cover has to be a big contributor to the good numbers as it prevents air over the roof from backfilling into eddies in the low pressure truck bed area. But the tonneau cover is still ribbed, so will induce some turbulent airflow over it.

Frankly, it’s great that the CT’s drag coefficient is as close to the Rivian’s as it is.

 

[EVNow]

As a caveat, Q4 will almost certainly miss profit ‘expectations’ unless they pull an energy rabbit out of the bag.

Yes, record quarters don’t matter. High growth is already priced in … question is how will ER and deliveries look like compared to expectations. I don’t see 50% growth next year …

Ofcourse the other factor is macros. The market has a very big impact on SP.

 

[Yelobird]

Rivian says R1T is 0.3
10% higher Cd with the same crossectional area means 10% more force is required to move air out of the way at the same speed.
If aero and rolling drag start out equal, that's an approximately 5% hit to Wh/mile or range.
Tonneau cover cuts drag about 10% for Cybertruck (benefit is included in the 0.335 number).

Fair point. I would then ask, was the .3 or .33 Cd recorded by Rivian tested before or After they tossed out the (at release) Tonneau cover? My guess is Before. That missing standard would absolutely change that result.

 

[Tony73]

That 30K and 78K delivery projection both look very reasonable.

30K next year is an average of 3K per month, which means with a linear ramp they should end Dec 2024 with a production rate of 7k to 8k. Not an easy task for any company.

Tesla can already support 30K cybertrucks at the current production rate on one 4680 line. The 4680 line ramp is about to accelerate significantly and they will have 8 lines by the end of 2024.
Unless 4680 ramp does not pan out, Tesla will exit 2024 at a 125k rate and hit a 250k rate before the end of 2025.

 

[Todd Burch]

Fair point. I would then ask, was the .3 or .33 Cd recorded by Rivian tested before or After they tossed out the (at release) Tonneau cover? My guess is Before. That missing standard would absolutely change that result.

That is a very good question. Maybe that’s why Lars/Franz said best aero in its class. Rivian’s cover is not standard with the vehicle (anymore?). Not sure if it’s offered by them at all right now.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Fair point. I would then ask, was the .3 or .33 Cd recorded by Rivian tested before or After they tossed out the (at release) Tonneau cover? My guess is Before. That missing standard would absolutely change that result.

From what I've read, before.

The CT takes a 30% range hit with the cover open.

 

[mongo]

Cyber is longer, which increases Cd.

Depends what they do with the length...
Thin sheet of plywood vs teardrop

Wiper is not concealed out of the airflow. It’s probably better to have the wiper there than not, given the flat panels, to help guide airflow around the edge of the windshield, but not as good as a concealed wiper with more complex body panels that can guide airflow better.

In one interview they said the wiper improves aero on the drivers side vs it not being there and that the parked position is tuned to optimize that effect.

 

[growler23]

Q4 should be a record quarter. 2023 should be a record year. 1.8M should be achieved and surpassed. Highland + China price increases roll into the mix, with Highland near fully ramped. COG decreasing. Margins should increase. Interest rates likely holding or dropping.

I see green over the next few months.

Agreed here.
Plus, I see Cybertruck 1.0 as an interim report card on Tesla's future manufacturing technologies and techniques. Plus, you know, they can sell it.

Continuously improved factory automation: check
Structural Pack 4680's: check.
Steer by wire: check.
New steel body type: check.
V2L and V2H: check.
48V bus: check.
800V powertrain: check.

All of these, and more, roll into the immediate future products. Except maybe the steel.
Big question to me is whether the steel body is a one-off for this model, or whether they think it will scale down in cost for the new $25k model. Love to hear folks speculation on that.

This report card scores a solid A.
Tesla's reveal scores about a D though. YouTubers were a ton more polished.

 

[2daMoon]

Tesla can already support 30K cybertrucks at the current production rate on one 4680 line. The 4680 line ramp is about to accelerate significantly and they will have 8 lines by the end of 2024.
Unless 4680 ramp does not pan out, Tesla will exit 2024 at a 125k rate and hit a 250k rate before the end of 2025.

That would be nice. Though it seems like an optimal scenario.

Now, let's take that and weigh it against 2 million reservations...

Reach 125k year one
Reach 250K in year 2, and same each subsequent year

That is 8+ years to get through an optimal scenario of all existing reservation holders taking delivery. (granted, unlikely everyone will)

In a more conservative scenario, 1 million reservation holders taking delivery brings it down to 4+ years, just to cover reservations at the time deliveries began.

We're gonna need a bigger factory

 

[Todd Burch]

Yes, record quarters don’t matter. High growth is already priced in … question is how will ER and deliveries look like compared to expectations. I don’t see 50% growth next year …

Ofcourse the other factor is macros. The market has a very big impact on SP.

What will matter IMO is a positive trend in margins.

 

[mongo]

From what I've read, before.

The CT takes a 30% range hit with the cover open.

CT takes 10% per Nov 30th-Dec1 interviews which seems inline with other pickups

@Yelobird's point was if the Rivian 0.3 Cd with the no longer included vover closed. If so, what is it now?

 

[Buckminster]

Universal wall connector now with powershare

CT only so far

 

[LuckyManX]

So we are now in the last month of 2023, not many trading days left. What does everyone think the stock will do for the next few weeks? Will we see a rally into 2024 or will we drop lower to start 2024 at a low point?

I've been retired for 11 years now. I MUST take a Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) each year, and that RMD amount is calculated each year on the value of my 401k on 12/31. That said, my preference would be to have the SP drop precipitously on new years eve, then rapidly recover on the first day of the new year.

It's just a preference, so please be kind if you're considering a reply-churlish. I'll just take an in-kind distribution, pay taxes on it, and continue to HODL.

 

[uscbucsfan]

CT takes 10% per Nov 30th-Dec1 interviews which seems inline with other pickups

@Yelobird's point was if the Rivian 0.3 Cd with the no longer included vover closed. If so, what is it now?

John Carmisa said 30 in his review.

 

[Snerruc]

I don’t want to live in a neighborhood with pickup trucks on the driveway. But now ive changed
my mind as long as they are cybertrucks.

Where in Florida do you live that isn’t wall to wall pickups in the driveways?

 

[gillfoto]

Correct. It is a lifestyle choice (or status or trying to project a particular image of themselves etc).

None of those are affected by whether it can be used to toe something once a year .... or may be it does. Do people feel let down that they can't brag about the shiny new EV truck they got - but couldn't bring it to the horse show .... ? Purely in terms of practicality I don't see a problem in renting for one trip a year (or two).

Have yo ever rented a truck . . . . I have and it's bl....dy expensive, you could easily put it down as a deposit for new truck.

 

[EVNow]

Universal wall connector now with powershare

CT only so far

V2Home is a great feature and if 3 had it I wouldn’t have needed to spend a lot of money (and effort) to get backup batteries. It’s great for locations with one or two outages per year … where spending 10s of thousands on power wall or generator backup looks like an overkill.