Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Taycan is a Model S competitor not a Model 3 competitor. Model S is not meaningfully impacting the financials because it is not selling 25k plus units per quarter

That Taycan is objectively inferior and has already racked up 10k sales in Europe plus 20k pre-orders/reservations of 2500 Euros a pop should alert people that the auto market is not a rational place.

Audi etron is objectively a worse value than Taycan and yet it still sells well in Europe. Brands matter, interiors matter, distribution and service networks matter, and marketing matters.

ID.3 is coming next summer and ID.4 will come shortly thereafter not years later.

Best car doesn't necessarily win.

Your point is well taken, but traditional automakers are playing catch-up at their peril. Consumer preferences and loyalties do change. Lest we forget, this was once the pre-eminent business mobile device:

 

[jerry33]

Thanks - 201 miles on 93.5 kWh is unbelievably bad. Worse than even pre-update i-Pace despite much less frontal area. How did Porsche screw this up so badly? BTW, they got "independent" AMCI to certify it at 275 "real world" miles. Hmmm.

No, I don't work for AMCI.

 

[FreqFlyer]

RayTesla️ on Twitter

Tesla is breaking the 'Made-in-China' stereotype with the GF3-made Model 3

Quality of MIC is stated to be better.

I have seen the Youtube videos of cars being delivered in Korea. Koreans are very sensitive to it, and some of the misaligned panels or missing parts, simple stuff on cars from Freemont should cause some heads to roll. Hopefully cars from China will supply South Korea and the ASEAN area soon.

 

[lklundin]

My knowledge about the 2170 cathode (NCA 811) comes mostly from this article:
Tesla releases rare details about Model 3's battery cells, claims highest energy density and less cobalt - Electrek

Now I noticed this article claiming that the competition's most sophisticated cathodes (NCM 811) now has an 18% market share in China, and 7% globally:

Charged EVs | NCM 811 cathodes quickly grow to 18% market share in China

Maybe some else here can learn more from that short article.

 

[X Fan]

First they have to find a way to actually make a profit, which is hard to do when you are only relying on people traveling plus apartment and condo dwellers. In the future almost all apartments and condos will be charge capable, which limits the long term profits to travel only. Destination chargers eat into the travel only profit.

Regardless, there will be consolidation of networks (which inventory today and in the future includes local and long distance connections)

 

[Fact Checking]

Is there a guesstimate of how large the China backlog is?

There was a leak a couple of days ago that "all of GF3 production until April 2020 is booked" - alas this is from memory, cannot find the link. Was from a well connected and usually reliable Twitter user.

​

Taycan is a Model S competitor not a Model 3 competitor.

Repeating this fallacy again and again doesn't make it true. In practice even dissimilar cars compete with each other to a fair degree, with Exhibit 1 being the Civic -> Tesla upgrades. What matters in reality aren't rigid, sterile product categories conjured up by manufacturers, but actual consumer behavior in the end.

The Taycan and the Model 3 Performance are very similar cars in all but perception of Porsche loyalists and price.

Perception and inertia of the Porsche brand obviously matters, but doesn't matter nearly as much when the Model 3 is significantly better in almost every rational comparison, and shockingly better in key metrics, such as range: 310 miles is +54% higher than 201 miles ...

Also note to investors: Volkswagen-Porsche, the crème de la crème of the ICE industry, gave it their 110% best and spent 6 years and billions of dollars to create a Tesla competitor EV. Yet Tesla's 2016-2017 cars still have 50% higher range than Porsche's 2020 Taycan ...

This is how much of a lead Tesla has in pure EV automotive products - ignoring their software and FSD lead ...

The software nerd physicist-economist who hot-rodded a 5-gear transmission into his 4-gear BMW, because he could only afford junkyard repairs, can be seen in this photo replacing a side window on his i330 that got broken into:

He apparently knows how to make great cars.

 

[scaesare]

Wow , 620 miles.

Tesla Cybertruck Screen Shows 620 Miles of Range Instead of the 500 Promised for the Tri-Motor Variant

I give reasonable odds to the powertrain and control/display systems being adapted from the Roadster project (double stack battery, 3 motors, etc...), and that the 620 mile range may have been calibrated for the Roadster's energy usage, not the truck.

We know the Roadster is rated for ~600 miles with it's doublestack 200kWh pack. Given that a 100kWh pack is the largest currently has in it's productions stable, it would seem odd for something with the CdA/weight/tires of the truck to have similar range unless it was a substantially larger pack. And that seems a but unlikely given they were rushing to build it within the last few weeks before the unveiling.

 

[scaesare]

Wow, that's getting down towards ICE car levels of energy INefficiency.

FTFY

 

[FreqFlyer]

Wow , 620 miles.

Tesla Cybertruck Screen Shows 620 Miles of Range Instead of the 500 Promised for the Tri-Motor Variant

When the powertrain makes it into S and X it will provide a bigger reason for the price difference from the and Y.

 

[lklundin]

Taycan does have regen, but I believe it occurs mostly from the brake pedal. It definitely does not have 1 pedal driving, but it may have 2 modes IIRC. 1 where it completely coasts and one where it slows similarly to a normal automatic transmission vehicle, when you let off the throttle.

Bad choice. I LOVE 1 pedal driving. Porsche wanted it to be more comfortable for their current owners.

At least the Taycan's transmission is automatic, so it still offers one foot, stick-free driving...

 

[X Fan]

Taycan is a Model S competitor not a Model 3 competitor. Model S is not meaningfully impacting the financials because it is not selling 25k plus units per quarter

That Taycan is objectively inferior and has already racked up 10k sales in Europe plus 20k pre-orders/reservations of 2500 Euros a pop should alert people that the auto market is not a rational place.

Audi etron is objectively a worse value than Taycan and yet it still sells well in Europe. Brands matter, interiors matter, distribution and service networks matter, and marketing matters.

ID.3 is coming next summer and ID.4 will come shortly thereafter not years later.

Best car doesn't necessarily win.

As you know, Porsche's brand has a core group of enthusiasts that they are tapping into (some of which were Porsche fans that went to the Model S & are now going back).

Question yet to be answered is once they tap into that enthusiast database will the vehicle demand still remain high? FWIW, EPA mileage rating at 201miles is dismal but I don't believe that will impact their sales greatly (all my neighbors in Naples that have Porsche 911's (and a few Panameras) use it as a local car only in Naples < when in season >). They drive other vehicles when they return North.

btw: save one of my neighbors, all the others are in their 70's which could be impactful to future Porsche sales.....

 

[lklundin]

FTFY

On the topic of ICE inefficiency:
Cybertruck Nuts® on Twitter

 

[Prunesquallor]

Thanks - 201 miles on 93.5 kWh is unbelievably bad. Worse than even pre-update i-Pace despite much less frontal area. How did Porsche screw this up so badly?

It really could make one concerned about the Mach-E “EPA-Est. Target*”.

*Final EPA-estimated ratings available in the 2020 calendar year.

 

[Tslynk67]

Outrageous, price-capping manipulation today...

 

[Fact Checking]

@Troy's latest delivery estimates are out:

Troy Teslike on Twitter

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Up from 104k to 106k and optimistic about demand.

I agree with this mostly my estimate is 105k Q4 deliveries: Fremont production was probably around 7k/week in this quarter, supporting 90k Model 3's - plus 15k S/X.

GF3 is a wildcard of maybe 2k additional deliveries.

I also like it how Troy's early estimates are close to the end-of-quarter estimates.

 

[imherkimer]

“It’s a nothingburger.”

Cheese. I thought it was gonna be a Not Dog

 

[Nocturnal]

As you know, Porsche's brand has a core group of enthusiasts that they are tapping into (some of which were Porsche fans that went to the Model S & are now going back).

Question yet to be answered is once they tap into that enthusiast database will the vehicle demand still remain high? FWIW, EPA mileage rating at 201miles is dismal but I don't believe that will impact their sales greatly (all my neighbors in Naples that have Porsche 911's (and a few Panameras) use it as a local car only in Naples < when in season >). They drive other vehicles when they return North.

btw: save one of my neighbors, all the others are in their 70's which could be impactful to future Porsche sales.....

A 200 mile range also makes it worthless as a track car and many Porsche fans do like to track their cars. They may have made a good time around the ring, but they would only be able to do that twice.

 

[AlexS]

@Troy's latest delivery estimates are out:

Troy Teslike on Twitter

View attachment 487131
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Up from 104k to 106k and optimistic about demand.

I agree with this mostly my estimate is 105k Q4 deliveries: Fremont production was probably around 7k/week in this quarter, supporting 90k Model 3's - plus 15k S/X.

GF3 is a wildcard of maybe 2k additional deliveries.

I also like it how Troy's early estimates are close to the end-of-quarter estimates.

There will be 0 deliveries from GF3

 

[JustMe]

Folks, you’ll enjoy - just for fun:

Cybertruck Nuts® on Twitter

 

[Fact Checking]

There will be 0 deliveries from GF3

That's certainly possible, they can probably meet 360k 2019 deliveries without GF3 - so GF3 will help Q1 instead. Shifting GF3 depreciation and amortization to Q1 should also help Q4 margins.

Hence "wildcard" - the PR and marketing advantage from Q4 GF3 deliveries would be significant.