It's my rough estimate, $500m from vehicles, $400m from energy side. The energy side is very difficult to estimate, we will know better after Q3 Q&A.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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It's my rough estimate, $500m from vehicles, $400m from energy side. The energy side is very difficult to estimate, we will know better after Q3 Q&A.
Hey ya'll giving me funnys, that was a factual post. I'm good with it being funny as long as you are also informed.
Post 85415:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
Post 85415:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
SoGA Fan Club
Member
No what you said was fine and I knew what you meant. I was making fun of the media because there's no way in hell they are going to report positive news. I mean think about it - they report every single fire Tesla ever has. But, when Tesla's AP helps someone avoid an accident, do they plaster on the news sites for 5 days? Nope.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
That's not unwinding. Unwinding would be a steady flow, e.g. one ship per week throughout the quarter. Filling a bunch of ships the first 4-6 weeks of the quarter then shifting the factory to produce 100% domestic cars is what the wave is all about.
It depends on the mix. Also on how many of those orders are for Shanghai 3s and Model Ys which won't be built for a while. They always say something encouraging about orders; I haven't found it to be usefully predictive.
I estimate a 10-15% seasonal drop for Q1 just because fewer people go car shopping in winter. US tax credit phaseout is above and beyond that. I agree it won't be as bad in the US as Q1 was this year, and tried to make that clear the first time. But there will still be a hit.
Zero is obviously a round number. S/X dropped 98% from Q4 2018 to Q1 2019. I don't think it'll be that bad. I expect 8k or so in Q4 falling to 500 or so in Q1. What's your estimate?Don't get me wrong, it'll decline plenty.But there are companies that buy rather than lease, there still are private cars (not benefitting from the tax difference, but there's still a huge fuel price difference), etc.
I changed my location to China to take a look, now it won't let me switch back. Very Hotel California of them....
Anyway, has that 6-10 months changed since they opened up ordering? I remember articles a few months ago misinterpreting that to mean production wouldn't start until next spring.
They have zero incentive to show a lower wait time until production starts. We'll see what happens.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
dgodfrey
Member
You are correct. I must have gotten caught up in the positive spin of starting this quarter off with more boats than last quarter when it really matters more at the end of the quarter as you stated.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Either way - it is really weird for someone to write that message. Why would any member here contact "Tesla Death Watcher" ? May be thats what there kinds of reporters do - write a to a large number of people in the hope of getting something (apparently any lie will do).
EVNow
Well-Known Member
If anything, having more ships in the beginning of a quarter is winding tighter - rather than unwinding. It would mean more of the cars are being sent out instead of an even split between local sales and shipping.
In this particular case, though, I think it means Netherlands demand that is likely to peak in Q4 is being aggressively met. A lot of orders must be contingent on being fulfilled in Q4.
Haha, I didn't mean your post is funny. I meant Niedermeyer is funny in a stupid way. Fact Checking did post tons of high quality posts, but anyone with a normal brain should know Elon Musk wouldn't have that much time to post.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think people who haven't worked in a corporate environment don't actually understand how busy executives are. Esp someone like Musk who puts in 200% effort in everything he does. Just because he spends a few hours a week goofing off on twitter they think he has a ton of time to kill.
Sadly I speak nothing but English (my daughter got the language ability) and I have no idea why he found it funny. PR is press release, public relations or Puerto Rican.
For the most part I agree, but as the huge drop off in ICE demand happens, there are going to be some factories offered at pennies on the dollar. Tesla may buy up the best of the best of these deals.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
adiggs
Well-Known Member
In the future fantasy world that hasn't arrived yet, it's the boats / quarter (and really the count of the cars on the boats), that will matter. And whether the cars are delivered by the end of the 3rd month or the 1st month (or the 2nd month) will stop mattering.
While I am inclined to agree with you here, it is not completely unrealistic that Tesla might repurpose existing space for these reasons:
* The "giant machine," while itself.. ah.. giant, presumably reduces the overall space requirements of a factory. So an existing smaller space might work.
* The dry process for batteries takes much less space and maybe even, speculating here, opens up access to spaces with different zoning.
* The Boring company can drill tunnels. Presumably Tesla could shift parts and partially assembled vehicles autonomously between buildings via those tunnels. Indeed one can imagine a science fiction future where the entire factory is a set of tunnels...
And, last but not least:
* Speed. Musk seems to like it. A lot.
SoGA Fan Club
Member
Was just being sarcastic about him thinking the media would post anything positive on Tesla. I'm still waiting for SOME media outlet to give a report on the number of deaths there have been on AP versus the # of deaths there would have been had been had humans been driving. I think the # of lives save is somewhere between 45 and 50. Do I expect that to ever actually get reported? Nope.
BTW - obviously I was right as no news site has mentioned a word about the various reports that summons has been somewhat improved.
Not shares. It's an option grant as compensation for serving as a Director.
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