Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AZRI11]

Only to DM @Fact Checking to ask if they were actually Elon.

You have to be a moron to think fact checking was elon

 

[MC3OZ]

While I am inclined to agree with you here, it is not completely unrealistic that Tesla might repurpose existing space for these reasons:
* The "giant machine," while itself.. ah.. giant, presumably reduces the overall space requirements of a factory. So an existing smaller space might work.
* The dry process for batteries takes much less space and maybe even, speculating here, opens up access to spaces with different zoning.
* The Boring company can drill tunnels. Presumably Tesla could shift parts and partially assembled vehicles autonomously between buildings via those tunnels. Indeed one can imagine a science fiction future where the entire factory is a set of tunnels...
And, last but not least:
* Speed. Musk seems to like it. A lot.

It depends on the particular site, location, access, can they map a good final design to the existing building footprint and reuse some of the existing facilities in situ..

That is a tall order, but they can review a number of possible sites and pick the best one...

Similarly old dealerships will make good service/delivery locations, the location and the general layout of the site is adaptable to that purpose..

 

[Artful Dodger]

I really think the saturation rate of the model 3 is soon to approach escape velocity where the 7 degrees of Kevin Bacon will kick in but it will only be two degrees.

Fun Fact: "The highest known Bacon number belongs to William Rufus Shatner, with a verified number of 8."

Here's a hundred years of separation. Coincidence? I don't think so.

Cheers!

 

[Steve m]

If anything, having more ships in the beginning of a quarter is winding tighter - rather than unwinding. It would mean more of the cars are being sent out instead of an even split between local sales and shipping.

In this particular case, though, I think it means Netherlands demand that is likely to peak in Q4 is being aggressively met. A lot of orders must be contingent on being fulfilled in Q4.

Sending a ship or two at the end of a quarter and more ships at the front of the quarter allows the cars to be delivered more evenly over the last two months instead of the last two weeks.

I wouldn't expect to go from the frantic wave to no ripple in just a quarter or two.

 

[MC3OZ]

The easy way to unwind the wave is to lift production, and improve the efficiency of switching between variants.

China and eventually Europe making their own base models is a big plus...

The first step is to mix in a bit more US production early in the quarter, while mainly building for export.

Unwinding the wave is gradual rather than instant, and ultimately requires carrying a fair bit of unsold inventory at the end of the quarter, they will not carry that inventory until the financials look reasonable... or more likely that additional inventory will grow slowly.

 

[traxila]

The only Niedermeyer I am familiar with is below:

Must be the same guy.

 

[sparcs]

View attachment 465084

Elon Musk on Twitter

another curious tweet is below that one where he replys with a wink when asked:

wilson lam "Any word on when Navigate on Autopilot for street level (aka read traffic lights and signs) will be out?"

maybe a hint that street level Navigate on Autopilot will come out in Q4?

 

[TradingInvest]

Looks like Uncle Larry got a few more shares

If I were Larry I would move 20% of my net into TSLA, which would be 30% of Tesla.

 

[EVNow]

Sending a ship or two at the end of a quarter and more ships at the front of the quarter allows the cars to be delivered more evenly over the last two months instead of the last two weeks.

I wouldn't expect to go from the frantic wave to no ripple in just a quarter or two.

That is literally what Tesla used to do before 3. Send all the production abroad in the first half of the quarter and then sell in US rest of the quarter. With 3, they started selling in US quite a few in the first months, but still 3rd month had the most sales.

Full unwinding would result in similar sales in all three months - in all continents.

 

[hershey101]

If I were Larry I would move 20% of my net into TSLA, which would be 30% of Tesla.

"I'd move 20% of my net worth into TSLA" LOL! Have you ever heard of diversification? Never ever ever have 20% of your net worth in one stock!

 

[LJS22]

Elon Musk on Twitter

another curious tweet is below that one where he replys with a wink when asked:

wilson lam "Any word on when Navigate on Autopilot for street level (aka read traffic lights and signs) will be out?"

maybe a hint that street level Navigate on Autopilot will come out in Q4?

Likely in a few months. As he also said tonight that first batch of retrofits from 2.5 to 3HW will begin in a few months next to new FSD features. But they are still looking at best route on this to not overload service team
Elon Musk on Twitter
I’m not holding my breath. I’m sure he’d like to get this out before Christmas but likely going to be the spring

 

[Steve m]

That is literally what Tesla used to do before 3. Send all the production abroad in the first half of the quarter and then sell in US rest of the quarter. With 3, they started selling in US quite a few in the first months, but still 3rd month had the most sales.

Full unwinding would result in similar sales in all three months - in all continents.

Tesla is moving to shipping the last couple of weeks of a quarter's production to Europe. To me it looks like they are starting to spread the shipments out by moving them more into the previous quarter.

This means they aren't available for a frantic last minute sell as many as you can in Fremont because there is no time to truck them anywhere else in the US.

I trust we bolth agree that then end goal is to have uniform shipments spread evenly out over a quarter and avoid a last two week delivery hell.

The sooner and more evenly in a quarter the ships arrive in Europe the more like a line this curve will become.

Model 3 VINs

 

[SO16]

I wish Elon would stop saying “lose money”.

Twitter

 

[sparcs]

Likely in a few months. As he also said tonight that first batch of retrofits from 2.5 to 3HW will begin in a few months next to new FSD features. But they are still looking at best route on this to not overload service team
Elon Musk on Twitter
I’m not holding my breath. I’m sure he’d like to get this out before Christmas but likely going to be the spring

Progress with Smart Summon was so difficult that I think I will say Q1 for street level even if it does sound like he's hinting sooner. Set my expectations a little lower

 

[Artful Dodger]

The market is closed Monday in honor of Christopher Columbus.

NASDAQ will be open on Monday:

"Some U.S. financial markets will be open, and some closed, on Monday, October 14 in observance of the federal holiday Columbus Day. The New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ will both be open regular hours. The next time the U.S. stock market will be closed for a holiday is Thanksgiving, Thursday, November 28." | Marketwatch 11 hours ago​

Here's the NASDAQ trading calendar:

https://www.nasdaq.com/docs/NFX-2019-Holiday-Calendar_1.pdf

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

"I'd move 20% of my net worth into TSLA" LOL! Have you ever heard of diversification? Never ever ever have 20% of your net worth in one stock!

Why not?! Larry spends almost that much on his boats. Pranking the shorts for the lulz would be epic!

 

[Navin]

Whoa. Looks like the ad placement neural engine is now correlating ads to TSLA stock price action. So cool.

 

[StealthP3D]

For 2020 I think Tesla will do better than my prediction, I learned from the past that it's better to be conservative, so I don't get too bullish.

Sometimes it's better to be cautious, sometimes it's better to be bullish AF. The trick is knowing when each applies and being willing to take reasonable risks when the situation demands it. Don't let a big loss ruin your ability to act when the time is right, learn from it so you don't get bullish AF at the wrong time and so you can take advantage of those times when the jackpot bells are going off for real. You will never be right 100% of the time but it doesn't take perfection to make great returns, you just have to be right more often than wrong by a reasonable margin. Not many can do it because they let their emotions interfere with the process.

That's why most people perform worse than throwing darts at the SP500. Emotions like fear and greed. Herd mentality - selling when everyone is selling and prices are low. Buying when everyone is jubilant and prices are high.

 

[StealthP3D]

So I am guessing that something that Tesla is doing is giving pressure to these publishing places? I am curious as to what it is.

Tesla is selling a lot of cars. This means a lot of people are Tesla owners and drivers. This means the percentage of The Drive readers who can see the BS is growing daily.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm still waiting for SOME media outlet to give a report on the number of deaths there have been on AP versus the # of deaths there would have been had been had humans been driving. I think the # of lives save is somewhere between 45 and 50. Do I expect that to ever actually get reported? Nope.

Be careful what you wish for. If the MSM did report on the number of lives Tesla has saved, the title of the article would probably be something like "New data reveals Tesla is contributing to overpopulation".