Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Just an update to this guy... it looks like he got fired from TheDrive

E.W. "Useless Tube" Niedermeyer on Twitter

"That's because there has been a shift in its tech coverage strategy to one that does not accommodate my approach to covering mobility, and I have parted ways with the site."

i.e. TheDrive ran out of room for publishing TSLAQ propaganda and fired his ass.

Another $TSLAQ executive departure.

Content providers run the risk of long term credibility. .... So one approach is scapegoating

 

[TradingInvest]

I think you're a bit high for Q3/Q4 but definitely low for 2020. If Tesla guides to 27b revenue next year the "growth story is over" meme will really take hold. I see 32-35b based on 75k S/X and ~450k 3/Y plus 4b for Energy/Service.

My Q3/Q4 revenue probably is similar to yours because my full year 2019 is 0.2B below yours.

Next year several factors could impact demand and production. Oil price; China's EV policy; EU's policy; trade deals; GF1 battery production rate. Many people assume US tax incentives will go away for Tesla, GM and Nissan, while others continue to enjoy $7.5k. I think there is a decent chance US will change the incentive program.

For 2020 I think Tesla will do better than my prediction, I learned from the past that it's better to be conservative, so I don't get too bullish.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
China deal pretty much a done deal.

This coupled with the prospective start on the 14th could lead to a very, very interesting 15th trade day.

 

[Causalien]

Another $TSLAQ executive departure.

Content providers run the risk of long term credibility. .... So one approach is scapegoating

LOL Noodlemaker. No tears lost. He brought all this on himself.

So I am guessing that something that Tesla is doing is giving pressure to these publishing places? I am curious as to what it is. Maybe losing business in California? Basically any negative press towards TSLA is just shitting on Californians.

 

[wipster]

Hmm, picture a front cargo bay with sloped glass cockpit and rear bay.

Heck I still can't figure out if it's going forward or backward!

 

[TradingInvest]

It'll drop, but "go to zero" is hyperbole. EVs still remain a vastly cheaper option in NL than ICEs, even after the phasedown.

NL's goal is to ensure a pace to get to 100% EV by 2030. If they see EV adoption slows down, they will do something to stimulate. I think Tesla's annual unit sales in NL will go up 5 fold in the next 10 years. Average yearly growth about 20%.

 

[elasalle]

LOL Noodlemaker. No tears lost. He brought all this on himself.

So I am guessing that something that Tesla is doing is giving pressure to these publishing places? I am curious as to what it is. Maybe losing business in California? Basically any negative press towards heyTSLA is just shitting on Californians.

Maybe they are realizing that there are Law suits waiting to happen ..

 

[mongo]

Could someone remind how/why the projections for Q1/20 made by Elon at the last ER were so dire? If the wave seems to be unfolding nicely and demand still exceeds supply, and production is full steam ahead, why would the normal Q1 nosedive be a concern for Tesla? Was it just the reconciling of financials that skews performance?

It wasn't dire, the question was regarding quarter over quarter increases. Q1 is usually the low point of the year so it is hard to get a Q1 better than the previous Q4. Also there will be some pull forward in the US due to tax credit expiration.

From Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

A.M. Sacconaghi -- Sanford C. Bernstein -- Analyst

Yes, thank you. I was wondering if you can comment about whether you felt that Q2 benefited from consumers in the US sort of rushing out to buy Model 3 in advance of the declining federal tax credit, a phenomena that you sort of saw in Q4? And part of the reason I ask is, at least by my analysis, it looks like maybe 70% of the Model 3 sold in the quarter were in the US, which is sort of higher than your normalized percentage of US sales. And so do you feel that, that phenomena may have occurred in Q2? And are you still confident that Q3 deliveries can improve sequentially? And beyond the data point that you provided on the call that the orders quarter data better than last quarter, is there anything else you can point to that provides that confidence?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I think we'll -- demand in Q3 will exceed Q2. It has thus far and I think we'll see some acceleration of that. So -- and then I think Q4 will be, I think very strong. So we expect that quarter-over-quarter improvements. I think Q1 next year will be tough. I think Q3 or 4 will be good, Q1 will be tough. Q2 will be not as bad, but still tough. And then I see like Q3 and Q4 next year will be incredible.

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, just to add on the tax credit step down, so the step down from Q2 to Q3 was significantly lower than the step down from Q4 to Q1. It's also important to keep in mind that there's seasonality in the auto business in Q1, which also is part of the impact. But generally speaking, our order rates so far this quarter is higher than where we were at this point in Q2, and we haven't seen a significant impact on US-based orders as a result of the step down.

 

[Causalien]

Maybe they are realizing that there are Law suits waiting to happen ..

Not a lawyer so don't know. But it should be easy to correlate the scam articles with stock drop since they are obvious.

 

[wipster]

So this is what "getting tired of winning" feels like?

We have not begun to tire!

 

[hobbes]

Oh, you are SO funny. I literally spit my coffee out when I read it. Good one!

Must admit if I was actually funny (sarcasm?) it was not on purpose. Sometimes it shows if English is not your first language... I meant to say "good PR" like in "good press", but I guess the abreviation is ambiguous?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Just an update to this guy... it looks like he got fired from TheDrive

E.W. "Useless Tube" Niedermeyer on Twitter

"That's because there has been a shift in its tech coverage strategy to one that does not accommodate my approach to covering mobility, and I have parted ways with the site."

i.e. TheDrive ran out of room for publishing TSLAQ propaganda and fired his ass.

I love how he replies with "The "everything is always about Tesla" worldview seems extremely cool and healthy" - sarcasm obviously (E.W. "Useless Tube" Niedermeyer on Twitter), and YET has a picture of Elon Musk on his twitter page?!

Does he not see the hypocrisy?

 

[Christine69420]

Heck I still can't figure out if it's going forward or backward!

No need to! Just put the destination into the screen and enable AP. Then back to beeing confused.

That's what I do anyway.

And thank you to Elon and his minions for making NoA work much better in V10 than it used to in Europe. Still need to approve lane changes - but my TMX is so much better at it than it was the last time I visited out capital city a month or so back. It's as if the AI is learning new things as we go along. Marvellous!

 

[LN1_Casey]

Must admit if I was actually funny (sarcasm?) it was not on purpose. Sometimes it shows if English is not your first language... I meant to say "good PR" like in "good press", but I guess the abreviation is ambiguous?

I think the joke was that the media ignores positive Tesla news, so really, we won't get much good from it in that manner.

Also, side OT for the weeking;

FORD the Say.com website! I've tried 2 accounts, three web browsers, 2 computers, and 3 quarters to connect my E-trade to their website to allow myself to vote and submit questions to the TSLA earnings call. Every time it fails! And I have fording tried to mail them, back after Q2 results. and got nothing. Still an issue, no follow up, and I'm done!

 

[TradingInvest]

TSLAQ is just fanatical noise. The real bears see a falling margin/dilution story.

I agree some bears think revenue growth doesn't matter. They think Tesla lose money, and competition is coming. Those bears better stay alert. Tesla's gross margin has a decent chance to reach 30% before 2022. Tesla's products are improving at a fast pace, especially software. Meanwhile cost will drop due to various reasons.

Now that trade deal has been reached, shorts will face more stress.

 

[dgodfrey]

Why do you say the wave is unwinding?

Q1 is seasonally bad for cars and especially for EVs. Subsidy stepdowns add to this - e.g. Tesla will basically go to zero in the Netherlands in Q1. The US will also take a hit, though nothing like this year. China is OK in January then dies with the Chinese New Year. I expect Tesla to dial Fremont Model 3 production back in January and re-deploy people to start bringing the Model Y line up.

I had linked what prompted the question in my original post. It was alluding to an increase of ships docking relative to last month.

Regardless, if they've always been supply constrained and based on his recent claim of 10% more orders than what they could supply, if nothing changes on that front, and they deliver at similar or hopefully better rates than previous quarters, it would seem revenue would continue to climb. Would it not?
I understand increased revenue is but one piece of the total financial health equation but we can only guess what the ASP's and forward spending will be.

Additionally, reflective of my above statement, I question whether the loss of 3% in incentives will negate the >demand rates. Q1/19 had other negative forces besides the step down in incentives. Not sure I see the same for Q1/20 other the leasing issues you and Karen mentioned.

Every day, every month, every quarter, as more and more clueless drivers get a taste of how advanced and better a Tesla is than anything they've ever owned, I can see almost limitless increases in demand at least until every potential buyer has a sufficient understanding of the differences between a Tesla and everything else.

 

[Curt Renz]

I love how he replies with "The "everything is always about Tesla" worldview seems extremely cool and healthy" - sarcasm obviously (E.W. "Useless Tube" Niedermeyer on Twitter), and YET has a picture of Elon Musk on his twitter page?!

Does he not see the hypocrisy?

And he's apparently been a fellow TMC member for nearly a year, although he has never posted here: @Niedermeyer

 

[elasalle]

I agree some bears think revenue growth doesn't matter. They think Tesla lose money, and competition is coming. Those bears better stay alert. Tesla's gross margin has a decent chance to reach 30% before 2022. Tesla's products are improving at a fast pace, especially software. Meanwhile cost will drop due to various reasons.

Now that trade deal has been reached, shorts will face more stress.

Trade deal reached, just as GF3 opens ... Aahhh the US-Sino relations

 

[mongo]

And he's apparently been a fellow TMC member for nearly a year, although he has never posted here: @Niedermeyer

Only to DM @Fact Checking to ask if they were actually Elon.

 

[JRP3]

I don't see Megapack pricing being less than Powerpack. These aren't Model 3 cells, they're massively de-rated to ensure high cycle life.

No they are a different cell chemistry, (NCM), with an inherently higher cycle life.