Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

Re summons. (Non Tesla owner here). I have read about a couple issues and also a few comments that indicate it will continually improve the more people use it as the “neural net” learns as it goes.

A.. is this true.
B.. if so is it constantly being downloaded to the fleet or just on software revisions.

Thanks in advance.

 

[TradingInvest]

"I'd move 20% of my net worth into TSLA" LOL! Have you ever heard of diversification? Never ever ever have 20% of your net worth in one stock!

Larry has 80% of his net in one stock, it has been like that for many years. I guess he knows what he is doing.

 

[dc_h]

If anything, having more ships in the beginning of a quarter is winding tighter - rather than unwinding. It would mean more of the cars are being sent out instead of an even split between local sales and shipping.

In this particular case, though, I think it means Netherlands demand that is likely to peak in Q4 is being aggressively met. A lot of orders must be contingent on being fulfilled in Q4.

Demand is huge in the UK, NL. Complaints about delays in Norway and not shipping to Ireland at all imply they can ship more then Q3 and not meet the backlog. Surprising that the wave won’t really end this quarter with Shanghai coming online. Maybe it won’t really end until GF4 comes online in 2021. Having 3 and Y on the same line will help them scale at 3 sites running over 500,000 not counting wherever they build the pickup.

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - Friday afternoon with evening update: Daimler recalls hundreds of thousands of Mercedes-Benz diesel vehicles

 

[Joe F]

Re summons. (Non Tesla owner here). I have read about a couple issues and also a few comments that indicate it will continually improve the more people use it as the “neural net” learns as it goes.

A.. is this true.
B.. if so is it constantly being downloaded to the fleet or just on software revisions.

Thanks in advance.

A- yes
B- yes, and that is the software revision that includes NN updates, along with new features and bug fixes.

As in the 4 release updates I’ve received since Smart Summon was released to me on Sept 28, 2019.32.11 followed by 2019.32.11.1 on Oct 2, then 2019.32.12.1 on Oct 10, and lastly 2019.32.12.2 on Oct 11.

Reading about “a few issues” without taking into consideration the enormous number of SS is so far in the noise that I’d be embarrassed to put it in writing here.

 

[Maitri982]

Progress with Smart Summon was so difficult that I think I will say Q1 for street level even if it does sound like he's hinting sooner. Set my expectations a little lower

We are lucky if we have it bythis time next year. Hope I am wrong, but EM track record on anything FSD related has been atrocious.

 

[Buckminster]

You have to be a moron to think fact checking was elon

I'm confused, are you calling Elon a moron?

 

[Carl Raymond]

"I'd move 20% of my net worth into TSLA" LOL! Have you ever heard of diversification? Never ever ever have 20% of your net worth in one stock!

On the surface, very sensible. But then a climate crisis represents 100% of everybody’s net worth. I can’t see a solution to the climate crisis without disruption, and I can’t see disruption without Tesla. So I take a “nothing to lose” approach.

 

[NicoV]

Whoa. Looks like the ad placement neural engine is now correlating ads to TSLA stock price action. So cool.View attachment 465108

You know that online ads reflect your browsing history, right?

 

[Buckminster]

So just checking that we are all on the same page regarding what probably won't happen in the next few months:

The wink tweet suggests that following remaining features will come together and are essentially the same feature:

• Recognise and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
• Automatic driving on city streets.

Any word on when Navigate on Autopilot for street level (aka read traffic lights and signs) will be out?

The previous tweet:
Working with engineering team to figure out best way to do upgrade without crushing service team. Will start doing upgrades in volume in a few months, coincident with more FSD features being released.

1. This suggests mid Jan release (-1mo/+12mo with the website still saying by year end).
2. It has features in plural when there are only 2 left. Wouldn't Elon have said final features (feature complete), if he meant that?
3. Suggests that final features require HW3

We know that Smart Summon update in the past few days is looking good. This has presumably given Elon a bit more confidence on timelines.

So, Elon is probably thinking feature complete in ~March but doesn't want to use that terminology (learning his lessons).

 

[EVNow]

Re summons. (Non Tesla owner here). I have read about a couple issues and also a few comments that indicate it will continually improve the more people use it as the “neural net” learns as it goes.

A.. is this true.
B.. if so is it constantly being downloaded to the fleet or just on software revisions.

Thanks in advance.

A. Not clear. Yes in theory but not in practice.
B. Only software revisions- that too usually only major ones. Most of the changes we see in smaller revisions come about because of tweaks in procedural code, not NN.

 

[Steve m]

On the surface, very sensible. But then a climate crisis represents 100% of everybody’s net worth. I can’t see a solution to the climate crisis without disruption, and I can’t see disruption without Tesla. So I take a “nothing to lose” approach.

An old Friend from Fairbanks Ak used to say get your tropical Alaska real estate now while it is still cheap.

 

[LN1_Casey]

You have to be a moron to think fact checking was elon

If only for the fact that Overlord Musk would not have the time to post such detailed posts on the regular.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I'm very pleased that the FSD price is going up, even though I have an old AP1 model S and its no use to me...
Tesla obviously knows how many people are buying FSD with the car and also how many upgrade later. Basic business rules suggest that you only raise your prices when you can see inelastic demand, so it sounds like they are seeing pretty big take up of FSD.

I think a price rise PLUS the viral nature of smart summon PLUS upcoming earnings PLUS first gigafactory 3 cars rolling out, should come together (possibly along with a nice tailwind from tariff talk progress) to give us a nice stock bump.
I'm not going to be completely chill about the SP until it hits $400 (I stupidly bought some CFDs very high, back in the $380 time...), but I'm feeling pretty confident that we are going to sail through 260,270, probably hit $280 around end October. A strong Q4 and I'm assuming $400 in Q1 2020.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Reuters - Friday afternoon with evening update: Daimler recalls hundreds of thousands of Mercedes-Benz diesel vehicles

Man, when will the German auto manufacturer's lies end?

Dan

 

[JRP3]

"I'd move 20% of my net worth into TSLA" LOL! Have you ever heard of diversification? Never ever ever have 20% of your net worth in one stock!

Cuban On Investing: Diversification Is For Idiots

 

[GaryW]

We are lucky if we have it bythis time next year. Hope I am wrong, but EM track record on anything FSD related has been atrocious.

Smart Summon is getting better, and quickly.

Maybe the developers are benefiting from all the data?

I used it last night in the rain several times, including with my mother in law. It was flawless. She was speechless.

 

[Singer3000]

Long time lurker. Noobe question. With opening of production at giga 3 could tsla get a lot more interest from chinese investors? Don't know anything about difficulty of buying U.S. stock in China.

It’s pretty hard. Circumventing China capital controls is a major industry in its own right. In fact at this point it’s probably as much this that keeps Hong Kong turning, than the traditional role as gateway for foreign capital to the mainland.

Property prices from Vancouver to Auckland have been pumped up off the back of such schemes but it is getting harder.

But... there’s plenty of wealthy industrialists that have businesses with offshore cashflows. It’s the goal of most of them in the private sector to find ways of legitimately offshoring as much wealth as possible. So this is probably the primary route.

As for Tencent style large share purchases, this is also probably harder than it was, thanks to the reckless activity from the likes of HNA Group and CEFC China Energy, meaning the banks are looking much harder at indebted private sector firms making substantial offshore investments.

 

[anthonyj]

OT:

Scored my girlfriend a crazy lease deal on a Hyundai Ioniq EV. $99 a month, nothing down. That’s with fees rolled into payment, no sales tax on EVs in NJ. She really loves Tesla but she is a poor college student haha. Now she doesn’t have to drive a stinky gas car!

Simply crazy deal

 

[Tslynk67]

You have to be a moron to think fact checking was elon

One of them might be...