Bob Lutz apparently saw one there.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Bob Lutz apparently saw one there.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Tesla has been holding fairly well today, at around +$4.50-$5. Does anyone know particularly why, though? Since it was down yesterday, and supposedly there are a lot of options expiring on Friday at around 252 (so I've read elsewhere), I'd think the market manipulators would be trying to push it harder back down.
Hey, remember that one time when TSLA was above 300 and there were less cars out on the road than today? Which means Tesla had fewer customers. Which means there was no demand problem.....Yeah, me too.....This $250 area is weak sauce.
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Yuri_G
Member
As the price rises, more shorts are underwater and have to cover. On top of that there's added pressure of a beat in earnings coming up next Wednesday. Then longs see the price going up and want to buy in at the lower prices, so they start buying. Lots of catalysts helping right now.
Pras
Member
So ironic that we are getting back to the SP level on the Q1 earning call. All of this for nothing?
Not for nothing if you have been quietly buying, I have to admit I spent all my dry power too early though.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Yes, I agree with that reasoning.
However, this was also true yesterday, but we spent in the red the whole time.
In my opinion, in the absence of a clear indicator, it's somewhat pointless to try and puzzle out the meaning of price action on any particular day.
EDIT: What I do know is that my Jan20 305Cs are rebounding nicely (only down ~70% now) while my Jun20 300Cs are up 41%. Despite losing my shirt on some options (I had Jul19 280 monthlies that I sold a couple weeks back at a 90% loss), and still being underwater on my shares, I am only down 7.5% overall. Yay for covered calls...
So the social media person doesn't know yet...
This may be of interest to anyone who is on the fence about investing in Tesla, and also anyone who averaged TSLA at higher prices (e.g. > $300). This is not for anyone who wants assurances or proof. Treat this as one person's ramblings.
I thought autonomous FSD robotaxis would not be ready for many, many years, with only a 30% probability. I've given technical reasons for this in prior posts, and these reasons are still valid. However, I found some missing pieces to the puzzle, so I've changed my mind.
Excluding regulatory issues, I'm now confident that safe autonomy and/or a robotaxi service will be ready in the next year or two, pretty much along Elon Musk's time frame or perhaps a year longer. I have about 80% conviction in this. More importantly, I'm pretty sure of the reasons for EM being so confident about this, to the point of being smug.
However, the market will not believe autonomy or robotaxies are possible until it's obvious. This could happen end of this year or the next, but it will happen when Tesla decides to reveal their hand. Until then, there may be better entry points. With all the shorts, there might even be better entry points for a short while after it's obvious, just like the delayed run up after deliveries last quarter.
I've doubled my position in TSLA today and intend to invest substantially more over the next month. The timing is bad because Tesla is up due to other positive news, but +/- 30% in the short term won't matter if I'm right.
The bad news: I can't share details. So why post this at all?
1. Correcting my past posts
2. Giving back what I can
3. "I told you so" rights
Disclaimer: This is absolutely not investment advice.
I thought autonomous FSD robotaxis would not be ready for many, many years, with only a 30% probability. I've given technical reasons for this in prior posts, and these reasons are still valid. However, I found some missing pieces to the puzzle, so I've changed my mind.
Excluding regulatory issues, I'm now confident that safe autonomy and/or a robotaxi service will be ready in the next year or two, pretty much along Elon Musk's time frame or perhaps a year longer. I have about 80% conviction in this. More importantly, I'm pretty sure of the reasons for EM being so confident about this, to the point of being smug.
However, the market will not believe autonomy or robotaxies are possible until it's obvious. This could happen end of this year or the next, but it will happen when Tesla decides to reveal their hand. Until then, there may be better entry points. With all the shorts, there might even be better entry points for a short while after it's obvious, just like the delayed run up after deliveries last quarter.
I've doubled my position in TSLA today and intend to invest substantially more over the next month. The timing is bad because Tesla is up due to other positive news, but +/- 30% in the short term won't matter if I'm right.
The bad news: I can't share details. So why post this at all?
1. Correcting my past posts
2. Giving back what I can
3. "I told you so" rights
Disclaimer: This is absolutely not investment advice.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Before the edit, I understood your post. After, I'm doing the squinty Fry look.
But, since we've breached 230, I've been in the green, since I joined the game late and bought as much as I could while it was sub 200. As I only hold stock for my inevitable mass-sale for my P100DL purchase, it's all unrealized, but hey. The nice green on the portfolio tab is always nice.
Lutz is basically yelling at Elon to get off his lawn
I did not anticipate the Q1 fallout and was not prepared at all to fully take advantage of the sub $200 range, but I was able to increase my position by about 15% at an average of 205/share. I'm pretty happy bout that.
JusRelax
Active Member
Can you tell us how you found these missing pieces? internal reflection? Meeting with the Musk? Installation of a Neuralink?
Yesterday was bad macros. TSLA did better than NASDAQ. Today, macros are still not wonderful, but pretty much flat, so TSLA continues the steady rise of the last few weeks.
I don't know your specific situation obviously, but If there is a reason that you can't share details here, make sure that this reason doesn't implicate you or someone else in insider trading.
Stars aligned
Member
The sea taking a big breath, before the tsunami rolls in?
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Haha, but probably not by my total stock count. I've more years on this planet than stocks.
Yes, but the initial photo of just Elon on the video control should give all longs the warm fuzzies. He appears healthy, happy and rested.
Like someone who's come out the other side, had a good vacation and is ready to put the pedal to the floor yet again and leave competitors and FUDsters in the dust.
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