Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

WSJ showing a net -$63M in block trades going out of TSLA. Affirmation that the folks that are selling are big fish.

Money Flows: Selling on Strength - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

 

[anthonyj]

Maybe wait until SEC issue is settled to add more?

Self-driving cars may hit people with darker skin more often

Also FSD is racist, expect some FUD from that one

 

[KarenRei]

Would it be possible to visit Iceland with my own Model S in the winter? I guess there are (car) ferries to the island? Wouldn’t that require switching my regular winter tires with something better?

Yep, there absolutely are car ferries (and you can have an optional stop in the Faroes if you want).

Winter tires are not required, but are certainly recommended if you're going to be driving here around midwinter. Early/late winter, they're not as big of a deal. It also depends on where you planning to drive, and if you're on a tight schedule (or whether you can sit out bad weather).

Keep an eye on that Supercharger map; hopefully they'll start popping up here this summer!

 

[Fact Checking]

Not to put on any pressure, but if any of you guys are wrong, then a bunch of us here are screwed. Regardless of the disclaimers.

Note that FSD is absolutely NOT priced into $TSLA at the moment.

If FSD was priced into $TSLA we'd have to add in Waymo's 175+ billion valuation:

How Much Upside Does Alphabet's Waymo Really Have?

"Two analysts have valued Waymo at $175 billion or more."​

... and would have to multiply it by two, because Tesla's FSD business model is that much more mature, that much more scalable and is also surrounded by three gigantic moats the width of the English Channel and the depth of the Mariana Trench.

So if I'm dead wrong about 2019 FSD progress (which is always a good possibility - I was wrong about the S&P 500 inclusion date too) we are back to square one and this year's price range.

 

[adiggs]

Distance driven is the wrong metric. The correct metric is situations. A stop light is a situation, driving on the highway is a situation, lane change is a situation. 99% of situations is likely correct.

I agree. And I expect there are many more than 1 situations per mile to be handled.

For me at least, thinking about it as miles, knowing that miles is much too gross of a metric to be measuring in, helps me see just how big the chasm is between where we're at and where we want to be.

 

[Nocturnal]

In thread: Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery a lot of movement. It is very positive. But people expect SR cars to be delivered in 2 to 4 weeks. I feel a lot of complaining coming.

Complaining? That would be different....

Note that FSD is absolutely NOT priced into $TSLA at the moment.

If FSD was priced into $TSLA we'd have to add in Waymo's 175+ billion valuation:

How Much Upside Does Alphabet's Waymo Really Have?

"Two analysts have valued Waymo at $175 billion or more."​

... and would have to multiply it by two, because Tesla's FSD business model is that much more mature, that much more scalable and is also surrounded by three gigantic moats the width of the English Channel and the depth of the Mariana Trench.

So if I'm dead wrong about 2019 FSD progress (which is always a good possibility - I was wrong about the S&P 500 inclusion date too) we are back to square one and this year's price range.

Which is bananas. As I've said before, let's say Waymo is somehow 2 years ahead of Tesla. How long does it take to get their FSD tech into consumer vehicles? Probably not less than 2 years.

Maybe wait until SEC issue is settled to add more?

Self-driving cars may hit people with darker skin more often

Also FSD is racist, expect some FUD from that one

May not be all bad. That might get Tesla some nice tweets from POTUS. :trollface.jpg

 

[KarenRei]

Note that FSD is absolutely NOT priced into $TSLA at the moment.

If FSD was priced into $TSLA we'd have to add in Waymo's 175+ billion valuation:

How Much Upside Does Alphabet's Waymo Really Have?

"Two analysts have valued Waymo at $175 billion or more."​

... and would have to multiply it by two, because Tesla's FSD business model is that much more mature, that much more scalable and is also surrounded by three gigantic moats the width of the English Channel and the depth of the Mariana Trench.

So if I'm dead wrong about 2019 FSD progress (which is always a good possibility - I was wrong about the S&P 500 inclusion date too) we are back to square one and this year's price range.

While I agree with this, you're going to keep hearing people say, "It's not self driving, it's a driver assist!" until approval is given to drive without hands-on-the-wheel. Which I expect will be a long time coming.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see city driving, hands-on-the-wheel by the end of the year. Hands-free, however? I expect that to be years (plural) in the future.

 

[AlMc]

@AIMc
Trying to remember,
Does ARKG have TSLA?
I like the genomics stuff

No TSLA in that EFT.

 

[Fact Checking]

Years ago, Elon demonstrated a 2-min bty swap on stage during one of his Telsa product demos.

Not trying to rain on the battery swap parade, but people are still rather fond of their cars and are thinking of their battery packs as property, and don't want to give up their well maintained, well looked after battery pack to some anonymous lottery of everyone's else's poorly maintained, badly degraded battery packs.

Also, if SuperCharger v3 is indeed an upgrade to 200 kW max charging speeds then we will probably begin the phase of diminishing returns in recharging speeds.

 

[Fact Checking]

While I agree with this, you're going to keep hearing people say, "It's not self driving, it's a driver assist!" until approval is given to drive without hands-on-the-wheel.

Yeah, but even Waymo has a "safety driver" in every Waymo taxi ...

 

[Nocturnal]

Not trying to rain on the battery swap parade, but people are still rather thinking of their cars as property, and don't want to give up their well maintained, well looked after battery pack to some anonymous lottery of everyone's else's poorly maintained, badly degraded battery packs.

Also, if SuperCharger v3 is indeed an upgrade to 200 kW max charging speeds then we will probably begin the phase of diminishing returns in recharging speeds.

The only way that works is if batteries are on a subscription. Definitely agree that swapping my battery out for a battery of unknown quality is not desirable.

 

[Fact Checking]

Wouldn't it be great if Tesla's unbooked ZEV credits covered the CapEx for the Model Y line?

BTW., I can also see Tesla not selling ZEV credits in the future at all - thus forcing a higher cost structure on ICE carmakers.

This would be a classic 'bad for short term cash flow, great for the mission' Elon move.

 

[Tslynk67]

FWIW, it’s low. I have the unique ability to get wound up on subjects with low blood pressure. I blame the caffeine.

EDIT: OMG, I’m caught up on this thread! I’m going to take a shower now. I’m sure I’ll be a couple of hours behind by the time I get back to this thread.

Btw, do any of you give unsolicited advice to friends and the like to buy TSLA when it is this low? I don’t just because I like to keep my friends in case I’m wrong, but wondering if others are bolder when the price action appears to be this whacked out.

There's a few people I mention it to, but they never bought. Another one who asked me I recommended and she bought 20 for $254... She holding them for ever...

 

[anthonyj]

Volvo may not sell its Tesla rival electric car in the US over tariffs

Pretty good news, considering that the Polestar 2 is a Model 3 destroyer. Was starting to get really worried. Phew.

Also, lots of activity on $285 calls

 

[KarenRei]

Yeah, but even Waymo has a "safety driver" in every Waymo taxi ...

You know very well that Waymo gets a free pass that Tesla never will. :Þ Because they've always been a "self-driving" company, so their product will always be seen as "self-driving", and never a driver assist. Tesla, by contrast, will be seen as a driver assist until the day that approval is given to drive without hands on the wheel.

 

[MP3Mike]

Not trying to rain on the battery swap parade, but people are still rather fond of their cars and are thinking of their battery packs as property, and don't want to give up their well maintained, well looked after battery pack to some anonymous lottery of everyone's else's poorly maintained, badly degraded battery packs.

That wasn't a problem with the original battery swap plan. You were required to return the loaner battery pack back with your own or you had to pay for the "new" pack. So on a long trip you would start with your own pack, then switch to loaners, and finally get your original pack back.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon Musk on Twitter
13m followers

 

[Menifeer]

While I agree with this, you're going to keep hearing people say, "It's not self driving, it's a driver assist!" until approval is given to drive without hands-on-the-wheel. Which I expect will be a long time coming.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see city driving, hands-on-the-wheel by the end of the year. Hands-free, however? I expect that to be years (plural) in the future.

My main concern about FSD is how it handles unusual situations.

For example if the car in front of me causes a piece of paper to fly into the air, does it take evasive action?

Or how about if I’m driving and my ex jumps in front of the car. Can I expect it to handle that situation correctly?

 

[AudubonB]

Note that FSD is absolutely NOT priced into $TSLA at the moment.

If FSD was priced into $TSLA we'd have to add in Waymo's 175+ billion valuation:

How Much Upside Does Alphabet's Waymo Really Have?

"Two analysts have valued Waymo at $175 billion or more."​

... and would have to multiply it by two, because Tesla's FSD business model is that much more mature, that much more scalable and is also surrounded by three gigantic moats the width of the English Channel and the depth of the Mariana Trench.

So if I'm dead wrong about 2019 FSD progress (which is always a good possibility - I was wrong about the S&P 500 inclusion date too) we are back to square one and this year's price range.

There is, of course, a slightly less pleasant - for Tesla watchers - explanation. That is that anyone evaluating Waymo at anything resembling $175 billion is absolutely, positively demented. Rationally speaking, I will suggest that from the standpoint of 2019 a fair approximation would be dropping Waymo by about 5X and raising Tesla by about the same amount.

 

[Tslynk67]

Note that FSD is absolutely NOT priced into $TSLA at the moment.

If FSD was priced into $TSLA we'd have to add in Waymo's 175+ billion valuation:

How Much Upside Does Alphabet's Waymo Really Have?

"Two analysts have valued Waymo at $175 billion or more."​

... and would have to multiply it by two, because Tesla's FSD business model is that much more mature, that much more scalable and is also surrounded by three gigantic moats the width of the English Channel and the depth of the Mariana Trench.

So if I'm dead wrong about 2019 FSD progress (which is always a good possibility - I was wrong about the S&P 500 inclusion date too) we are back to square one and this year's price range.

So if you come up with some fugly, half-assed, geo-fenced SD solution you're worth $200b

If you have an elegant solution, built into sexy desirable cars, that can already function to a certain degree and improve on a regular basis, and there are 500k of these cars already on the road, with billions of miles of data, and no geo restrictions, self-learning. It's worth... zero.