Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

Please take this healthcare discussion elsewhere please.

Now you're cluttering up the thread with your replies...

 

[Tslynk67]

Skimming TMC is an art.

Pro-tip: just look at the avatars...

 

[AudubonB]

MOD:
Am now caught up on morning's posts.

~~~~~~~~~~NO Healthcare discussions in this thread. Full stop.~~~~~~~~~

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wouldn't it be great if Tesla's unbooked ZEV credits covered the CapEx for the Model Y line?

 

[M3Rider]

Good points.

As a counter example, I am still sitting on my day 1 reservation, although I plan to get a LR AWD which has been available for a couple of months now. My reason for holding out for a couple more moths is that I want a bit more insurance to choose from (given that I crashed my previous car) and I don't want to pay the "first adopter premium", i.e. I am guessing (so far correctly), that more options and value for money arrive in the months following the initial deliveries.

So there could be more reservation holders still waiting before pulling the trigger on a large purchase (their largest kind, or second if they are house owners).

To clarify, I was talking North America numbers, which don't include you.

With the promise from Elon that the $35k price won't go down for a couple of years and the $3,750 fed credit going down to half in July, I think the SR holdouts have(had?) a really good incentive to buy asap.

Shopping around for insurance is unlikely to save a U.S. buyer more than $1,875 they will lose starting in July.

The people who sit on their reservations despite losing incentives seem like not serious buyers. Not sure how many of these are there.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Tesla Probably Can't Make Money in China, Morgan Stanley Says

What utter BS.

First, they keep beating that dead horse Chinese customs thing that ended up being an English language sticker they had to replace to Chinese. A blip on the radar that halted customs processing for like a day.

Second they use this as the example for inherent risk of US companies` risks doing business in China, ignoring that Model 3 production starts in 6 months in Shanghai.

Third they mix in some data privacy BS for autopilot data - not aware of any Chinese government concerns over that.

Finally, they talk about Chinese domestic EV startup rivals - the day after Nio just scaled back their plans.

Seriously...

I hate MS for many reasons. But the Chinese data privacy concern takes the cake. I don’t think that’s even a concept in China

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Elon musk tweeting the Rock pics I saw on here earlier confirms he reads TMC

Really interested in the original post

 

[Tslynk67]

Q1 2018 has fallen in Norway. On pace to set the all-time Norway record, but it's too early in the month to put a wager on that.

View attachment 383602

And since this post another 100 registered... 153 so far today, 196 yesterday...

 

[omarsultan]

Prob not going to help the SP today--just starting to see this picked up...

Tesla's public reputation took a big hit in 2018

 

[Zaxxon]

And since this post another 100 registered... 153 so far today, 196 yesterday...

 

[Unpilot]

Changed buy to 276 and got it...love the sale price...hate the fact it is on sale.

 

[AndyH]

And since this post another 100 registered... 153 so far today, 196 yesterday...
View attachment 383633

Model 3 will be best selling car in Norway 2019. I'm hopeful for Sweden too. Good optics if Tesla can accomplish that.

 

[Fact Checking]

It's not about the harm. It's about the technological credibility of Elon Musks claims wrt FSD. @Fact Checking defended him by saying that there is not a single claim of Elon about the capabilities of their hardware that does not eventually come true. And that would then be the reason why we should trust his claims about what they'll eventually be able to do with HW3. I am saying that he was wrong in his assesment of what HW2 could do and therefore the conclusion can't be drawn that there is a very high likelihood of him being right on what HW3 eventually be able to do.

Again: Elon talked about HW3's CURRENT capabilities. Not about future planned capabilities. Not about aspirational capabilities. Not about pie-in-the-sky wishes and not about what-if-1000-Elons-worked-on-this-problem deadline projections.

Here's what Elon said:

Elon Musk: "I'm driving right now the development version of Autopilot and it works extremely well in
terms of recognizing traffic lights and stop signs and is now starting to make turns effectively in
complex urban environments."​

Here's what Andrej Karpathy said four months ago:

Andrej Karpathy: "So in other words, we are currently at a place where we trained large neural networks that work very well, but we are not able to deploy them to the fleet due to computational constraints."​

Here's what the Tesla service tech who is in the FSD beta test group said two months ago:

Leak from Tesla employee: "Apparently everything is working well at this point (stop signs, street lights, left turns, right turns, etc.) The only consistent bug he has had is "valet mode", where the car will drop off the occupants and find its own parking spot. While that part works fine, it had some issues coming back (refused to saying obstacle detected). He has a model x, and the instrument cluster is 2 parts, the right side shows a debug feed for fsd and the left side is normal"​

So this is not about the future, these are statements about the present, from multiple sources.

 

[AlexS]

In thread: Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery a lot of movement. It is very positive. But people expect SR cars to be delivered in 2 to 4 weeks. I feel a lot of complaining coming.

 

[Tslynk67]

Model 3 will be best selling car in Norway 2019. I'm hopeful for Sweden too. Good optics if Tesla can accomplish that.

Should be in DK too given that they re-instated the reduced tax incentive for EV's

 

[dhrivnak]

Years ago, Elon demonstrated a 2-min bty swap on stage during one of his Telsa product demos.
.....
Remember, Telsa offered a ver 3.0 bty upgrade for Roadster 1 that was a $10K upgrade, but the refreshed car can drive LA=>SFO w/o recharging!

Cheers!

The Roadster 3.0 battery upgrade was $29,000 well above $10,000

 

[Todd Burch]

Also 30-second battery replacement instead of charging

They had that running in one place in California as a trial. The testers said they'd rather get the charge than the swap, so Tesla didn't pursue it further.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Speaking of healthcare, you might want to have your blood pressure checked.

FWIW, it’s low. I have the unique ability to get wound up on subjects with low blood pressure. I blame the caffeine.

EDIT: OMG, I’m caught up on this thread! I’m going to take a shower now. I’m sure I’ll be a couple of hours behind by the time I get back to this thread.

Btw, do any of you give unsolicited advice to friends and the like to buy TSLA when it is this low? I don’t just because I like to keep my friends in case I’m wrong, but wondering if others are bolder when the price action appears to be this whacked out.

 

[NicoV]

You know, after the announcement about them prepping to build Superchargers in Iceland, the more I think about it, the more I think we're about to become a Tesla Nation (sales are currently low because you can't service them here, there's no Supercharger network, and people have had to import their own) - potentially one of Tesla's highest market penetrations in the world. We have:

• Norway-like EV incentives (a gas car costs ~40% more than an EV of the same base price)
• High per-capita income (not as high as Norway, but still high on a global scale)
• The fastest "competing" chargers in the country are only 50kW.
• Low speed limits mean that the time between stops is so long that most people would want to stop anyway after going through a Tesla's range. E.g. no inconvenience.
  
• Surprisingly long travel distances (the Ring Road takes about 15 hours nonstop to drive all the way around)
• Everyone wants to at least be able to drive the Ring Road; it's sort of a minimum requirement for owning a car here. And why PHEVs have been much better sellers than BEVs thusfar.
• Long "side trips" away from the Ring Road (Snæfellsnes, Vestfirðir, Austfirðir, etc) call for long ranges
• Winters not super-cold, but long and snowy. Very windy. Mountainous. Having a good range-buffer for adverse conditions is important here.
• AWD is very popular here
• Lots of apartment-dwellers in-town with no access to charging (boo!); those who own cars want to be able to minimize how often they have to stop at a fast-charger in town (aka, range), and how long they have to be there (Superchargers). 50kW and Leaf-like ranges don't cut it for most people.

Things Tesla could do to significantly improve their appeal to Iceland:

• Tow package
• Air suspension (more clearance when needed)
• Greater native ground clearance (snow, unpaved roads)
• True offroad vehicles (not "city SUVs")

Would it be possible to visit Iceland with my own Model S in the winter? I guess there are (car) ferries to the island? Wouldn’t that require switching my regular winter tires with something better?

 

[Fact Checking]

If I was rich I'd probably be buying Jan 2021 calls right now. We're about 12% off a 52 week low with only amazing stuff happening

Not advice: the 2020 LEAP calls are even more amazingly priced, but only if you like 1000x leverage bets and don't mind a possible 100% haircut.