Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Not trying to rain on the battery swap parade, but people are still rather fond of their cars and are thinking of their battery packs as property, and don't want to give up their well maintained, well looked after battery pack to some anonymous lottery of everyone's else's poorly maintained, badly degraded battery packs.

When the test was running, you received your old pack back. However, you would pay for another swap, so $60 + $60 vs. 15 min at a Supercharger. The only place where swapping really makes sense is in a fleet operation where the vehicles run 24/7.

 

[Nocturnal]

My main concern about FSD is how it handles unusual situations.

For example if the car in front of me causes a piece of paper to fly into the air, does it take evasive action?

Or how about if I’m driving and my ex jumps in front of the car. Can I expect it to handle that situation correctly?

As Elon says, it's march of the 9s. 99%, 99.9, 99.9999....

 

[humbaba]

Yeah, but even Waymo has a "safety driver" in every Waymo taxi ...

You know very well that Waymo gets a free pass that Tesla never will. :Þ Because they've always been a "self-driving" company, so their product will always be seen as "self-driving", and never a driver assist. Tesla, by contrast, will be seen as a driver assist until the day that approval is given to drive without hands on the wheel.

Another thing to remember is that neither Cruise nor Waymo are interested in selling autonomy to consumers. Rather, their customers are supposed to be fleet operators. And those sky high valuations are based on ownership of future taxi services without drivers (which is still a pipe dream).

Tesla is the only one positioned to benefit from driver assist without having full on FSD. So while Waymo is broadly considered the leader in FSD that doesn't help them with their development cash burn.

 

[winfield100]

No TSLA in that EFT.

WAY OT
@AIMc
thank you, didn't want overlap, and forgot to get myself gene sequenced when i had the chance when employed by NIH working in building 45 and elsewhere...
what took spouse 3-4 years by hand, back in 1990 -1994, would now take 1-2 hrs setup then run overnite for total gene sequence
back OnT

 

[Artful Dodger]

BTW., I can also see Tesla not selling ZEV credits in the future at all - thus forcing a higher cost structure on ICE carmakers.

This would be a classic 'bad for short term cash flow, great for the mission' Elon move.

I see where you're going with that, but really wouldn't the ICE manufacturers just crank out the min. number of 'compliance cars' they require?

I think there's also some ungoing reluctance to buy ZEV credits currently because those same said ICEmakers are suing for relief? And the current Administratation / EPA is trying to shut down the whole CARB legal mandate?

 

[KarenRei]

Another thing to remember is that neither Cruise nor Waymo are interested in selling autonomy to consumers. Rather, their customers are supposed to be fleet operators. And those sky high valuations are based on ownership of future taxi services without drivers (which is still a pipe dream).

Tesla is the only one positioned to benefit from driver assist without having full on FSD. So while Waymo is broadly considered the leader in FSD that doesn't help them with their development cash burn.

And until Waymo can get rid of that safety driver (IMHO, a long time), and not be so incredibly geofenced (even their pickup and dropoff locations are limited within the regions they operate), they're a highly overpriced taxi service.

 

[Nocturnal]

Another thing to remember is that neither Cruise nor Waymo are interested in selling autonomy to consumers. Rather, their customers are supposed to be fleet operators. And those sky high valuations are based on ownership of future taxi services without drivers (which is still a pipe dream).

Tesla is the only one positioned to benefit from driver assist without having full on FSD. So while Waymo is broadly considered the leader in FSD that doesn't help them with their development cash burn.

Yes. Waymo will need to sell to taxi companies or at least automakers. Tesla just needs to convince current owners to shell out a few grand AND still has the option to sell to taxi companies.

 

[humbaba]

So if you come up with some fugly, half-assed, geo-fenced SD solution you're worth $200b

If you have an elegant solution, built into sexy desirable cars, that can already function to a certain degree and improve on a regular basis, and there are 500k of these cars already on the road, with billions of miles of data, and no geo restrictions, self-learning. It's worth... zero.

A couple of weeks ago I was talking to a guy about Tesla and its driver assist. He was very surprised to hear that my Tesla's capabilities had improved since purchase. This is still something that people just don't get. They are used to a car being at its peak when purchased and gradually getting worse with age.

Which reminds me: I think I should let him know that -- in addition to improved AP -- my MR will soon have its acceleration improved by an over the air update.

I'm with @Krugerrand here: I don't think commercials could possibly sell this. The best advertising is word of mouth/personal referrals (which is why advertising often tries to fake this) and I think with Tesla breaking the mold so significantly an advertisement would be met with "phfft".

 

[humbaba]

And until Waymo can get rid of that safety driver (IMHO, a long time), and not be so incredibly geofenced (even their pickup and dropoff locations are limited within the regions they operate), they're a highly overpriced taxi service.

exactly. And don't forget, it isn't just geofenced, it is also seriously route constrained with a small number of permissible stops. It doesn't even compete with a public transit.

 

[Pezpunk]

ugh i honestly thought i was done buying but here i am in for another 140 shares at $275.

 

[Thumper]

I think it is helpful that Tesla now defines what you get for EAP vs what you get now and will get more of in the future. I am a skeptic that we will be sleeping in our cars as they deliver us to our destinations for a long time. However, by delivering some features that move from level two to 4ish, Tesla can book the cost of FSD while continuing the progress toward level 5.

Now that I can see what I will get for my money, coughed up the reduced fee of $2000 to move from EAP to FSD this morning. The Tesla website does not make it clear that they will install the new improved computer but I believe it was promised in a presentation.

Your Model 3 will automatically update within 3 days. Please note that your car will not update while offline, charging or being driven.

To verify Autopilot is active, go to Controls > Settings > Drivers Assistance. Note: You will need to manually turn on Autosteer before use.

For more information on how to operate Autopilot, including warnings and limitations, reference your Owner’s Manual or watch our Autopilot support videos here.

 

[Cherry Wine]

WSJ showing a net -$63M in block trades going out of TSLA. Affirmation that the folks that are selling are big fish.

Money Flows: Selling on Strength - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

This gap is narrowing, and is now at -$56M. Selling via block trades has increased to -$90M outflow, but some others are buying: inflows of money via block trades have jumped to +$34M, narrowing the overall gap by $7M.

 

[Curt Renz]

I've already posted this in the Technical Analysis thread, but it may bear repeating here.

The editor of the McClellan Market Report is my friend Tom McClellan. Tom’s 84-year-old father Sherman and his late wife Marian were the inventors of the McClellan Oscillator technical analysis tool in 1969. Sherm, who is still well, was a regular guest of mine on my TV show until he passed the baton to Tom many years ago.

This morning on CNBC, Tom again presented his current bullish macro-market case. Afterward I told him, "Your outlook appears contrary to most of their herd. That may result in your getting the last laugh." He responded, "Hope so. I prefer not to hear others voicing opinions I agree with. If I do hear them, I have to reassess my opinions."

Link to CNBC video: McClellan Analysis: Bull market to last until 2021

 

[KarenRei]

New GF3 video.

Vincent on Twitter

Man, when China builds, they go all out

BTW:

You can see the cement pouring on the right (articulated arm). Hope there's cement going down all the way across that place next week.

 

[tivoboy]

Yeah, but even Waymo has a "safety driver" in every Waymo taxi ...

DIdn't they go totally no driver, passenger only in Chandler late last year? 45 max MPH, only certain pickup and summon areas and drop off zones?

 

[Radpioneer]

Fully agree with this post...

Well the variable that we don't know right now is their production rate. If they're making 7k/week(or even greater) for model 3, you could say that they're preemptively getting ahead of any demand issues. They probably know that there's only a certain amount of demand for a certain price range. Instead of producing a ton of high trim cars and there not being enough demand for the higher priced options, they would rather drop the prices some before they get to that point, introduce short range version, etc...

I disagree with the word "probably".... of course they know!

There is a real demand drop off for the high end trims(especially since a lot of high end trims were brought forward before tax credit got halved), not for the model 3 itself. The media loves to portray it as there's not enough model 3 demand. In reality, there's plenty of model 3 demand but there are limits for the more expensive trims.

"real demand drop off" sounds bad Somewhat of a demand slowing sounds better.

 

[Fact Checking]

Supercharger v3 event leaked apparently:

Gates open 8pm PST, Fremont. (5am in most of Europe.)

Not verified. Source: Reddit.

 

[EVNow]

Although Iceland presents some challenges to due its extreme weather, I still expect the India to represent a higher burden in terms of required service, due to the utterly chaotic traffic. Also the charging infrastructure in India would face some challenges. On the other hand, India thus is a super market for the Tesla combo, the car, the PV panels and the Powerwall.

Why would you need more service because of chaotic traffic ? Do you mean more fender benders … isn't that a profitable outcome for Tesla ?

BTW, traffic being chaotic is all relative. My brother has been driving in India for 2 decades without a fender bender. I've had 2 or 3 in the last couple of decades in US. You just have to drive more defensively in India.

 

[Buckminster]

Bloomberg getting on the climate bandwagon. How long will it take him to realise that buying a few TSLA shares and telling the world that Tesla is on to something is the best thing he can do in the short term?
Can we expect the website to be pro EVs including Tesla from now on?

 

[KarenRei]

DIdn't they go totally no driver, passenger only in Chandler late last year? 45 max MPH, only certain pickup and summon areas and drop off zones?

Waymo's So-Called Robo-Taxi Launch Reveals a Brutal Truth
5 December 2018.

Waymo, the frontrunner in the self-driving car industry, today announces the moment everyone has been waiting for: It is officially “launching” a robo-taxi service in Chandler, Arizona, wherein riders will use an app to hail the vehicles to take them anywhere in an 80 to 100 square mile area, for a price.

“Today, we're taking the next step in our journey with the introduction of our commercial self-driving service, Waymo One,” Waymo CEO John Krafcik wrote in a blog post.

The banner Waymo is unfurling, though, is tattered by caveats. Waymo One will only be available to the 400 or so people already enrolled in Waymo’s early rider program, which has been running in the calm, sunny Phoenix suburb of Chandler for about 18 months. (They can bring guests with them and have been freed from non-disclosure agreements that kept them from publicly discussing their experiences.) More glaringly, the cars will have a human behind the wheel, there to take control in case the car does something it shouldn’t.