Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Supercharger v3 event leaked apparently:
Gates open 8pm PST, Fremont. (5am in most of Europe.)
Not verified.
Model 3 only? Probably not - just sent out according to ownership.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Model 3 only? Probably not - just sent out according to ownership.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
In my experience support for mitigating climate change has generally not translated into support for EVs. Still seen as a niche - where the main target is utilities rather than personal transportation. Probably because utilities is something you can blame on others, unlike personal transportation.
Even though, I personally got interested in plugins because of Al Gore's book where it is one of 10 or so solutions.
WRT Waymo: Have they been developing their tech in conjunction with ICE cars or BEVs? If BEV, which one? I know little to nothing about the science involved, but I would imagine that if they are using ICE, it would not necessarily be that easy to adapt to BEV.Note that FSD is absolutely NOT priced into $TSLA at the moment.
If FSD was priced into $TSLA we'd have to add in Waymo's 175+ billion valuation:
How Much Upside Does Alphabet's Waymo Really Have?
"Two analysts have valued Waymo at $175 billion or more."
... and would have to multiply it by two, because Tesla's FSD business model is that much more mature, that much more scalable and is also surrounded by three gigantic moats the width of the English Channel and the depth of the Mariana Trench.
So if I'm dead wrong about 2019 FSD progress (which is always a good possibility - I was wrong about the S&P 500 inclusion date too) we are back to square one and this year's price range.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Model 3 VINs @Model3VINs 2 hrs ago, Mar 6
#Tesla registered 6,747 new #Model3 VINs. ~32% estimated to be dual motor. ~56% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 323380.
#Tesla registered 6,747 new #Model3 VINs. ~32% estimated to be dual motor. ~56% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 323380.
ZachF
Active Member
Elon is looking Muskular
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
If there's no radar signature (and most paper won't reflect radar) and there's no ultrasound signal either (there probably won't be if it's thin paper), then probably not. In other cases, probably yes - just like a good driver would do instinctively.
But yeah, just to quote Elon's reply to one of Adam "Wall Street's Best of the Best" Jonas's question:
Adam Michael Jonas - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
"Hey, everybody. First, there's so much love and respect for colleagues and Wall Street analysts on this call, it's almost – it is lifting my spirits. What can I say? I got two questions. The first is for the Autopilot team. There's an argument that a fully autonomous car is essentially like a terminator that is programmed to save lives in highly complex terrestrial environments and that this same technology with a few tweaks have some pretty obvious military capability. Do you see any risk that U.S. companies will ultimately not be allowed to operate weapons grade AI-based technology in a market like China and vice versa?"
Elon Musk:
"Well, this has never come up. I wouldn't call it weapons grade. It's just like the car is trying to drive and if anything, the autonomous cars will be pretty easy to bully because they'll be optimizing so much for avoiding collision. So that'll be more of a challenge than anything else is as soon as somebody sees that the car's autonomous, they know they can like cut them off and the car is going to do everything it can avoid a collision. So it's like that'll actually be probably a bigger challenge than anything else, but we've not encountered anything of the nature of what you're saying."
"Hey, everybody. First, there's so much love and respect for colleagues and Wall Street analysts on this call, it's almost – it is lifting my spirits. What can I say? I got two questions. The first is for the Autopilot team. There's an argument that a fully autonomous car is essentially like a terminator that is programmed to save lives in highly complex terrestrial environments and that this same technology with a few tweaks have some pretty obvious military capability. Do you see any risk that U.S. companies will ultimately not be allowed to operate weapons grade AI-based technology in a market like China and vice versa?"
Elon Musk:
"Well, this has never come up. I wouldn't call it weapons grade. It's just like the car is trying to drive and if anything, the autonomous cars will be pretty easy to bully because they'll be optimizing so much for avoiding collision. So that'll be more of a challenge than anything else is as soon as somebody sees that the car's autonomous, they know they can like cut them off and the car is going to do everything it can avoid a collision. So it's like that'll actually be probably a bigger challenge than anything else, but we've not encountered anything of the nature of what you're saying."
So Tesla's AIs, regardless of whether and when they gain sentience, will only have a desire to drive, and will be very easy to bully on the roads.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Ok, this is 129.8k VINs in Q1 alone, and things are getting crazy: the "85% VIN method" which worked well in Q2, Q3 and Q4 is now projecting a Q1 Model 3 production target of 110k units, which is nuts: 8.4k/week production which looks very unlikely.
Note that this many VINs is probably going to bring the Bloomberg tracker out of whack as well. This quarter's P&D report (due on April 1-2) is gonna be crazy.
If there's no radar signature (and most paper won't reflect radar) and there's no ultrasound signal either (there probably won't be if it's thin paper), then probably not. In other cases, probably yes - just like a good driver would do instinctively.
But yeah, just to quote Elon's reply to one of Adam "Wall Street's Best of the Best" Jonas's question:
Adam Michael Jonas - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
"Hey, everybody. First, there's so much love and respect for colleagues and Wall Street analysts on this call, it's almost – it is lifting my spirits. What can I say? I got two questions. The first is for the Autopilot team. There's an argument that a fully autonomous car is essentially like a terminator that is programmed to save lives in highly complex terrestrial environments and that this same technology with a few tweaks have some pretty obvious military capability. Do you see any risk that U.S. companies will ultimately not be allowed to operate weapons grade AI-based technology in a market like China and vice versa?"
Elon Musk:
"Well, this has never come up. I wouldn't call it weapons grade. It's just like the car is trying to drive and if anything, the autonomous cars will be pretty easy to bully because they'll be optimizing so much for avoiding collision. So that'll be more of a challenge than anything else is as soon as somebody sees that the car's autonomous, they know they can like cut them off and the car is going to do everything it can avoid a collision. So it's like that'll actually be probably a bigger challenge than anything else, but we've not encountered anything of the nature of what you're saying."
So Tesla's AIs, regardless of whether and when they gain sentience, will only have a desire to drive, and will be very easy to bully on the roads.
Shortsville Times:
Tesla vehicles to develop suicidal tendencies
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I think it would be impossible at this point for Tesla to have a lot of "scrap" VINs. Given the registration, I can only think it's because production has truly made a large step change improvement.
In the future, they could have multiple personalities, defensive driving style, pickup driving style, muscle car driving style, etc. A few sensors could allow the mood to change depending upon the emotional state of the driver. Then they'd be close to human driving.So Tesla's AIs, regardless of whether and when they gain sentience, will only have a desire to drive, and will be very easy to bully on the roads.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Anyone doing illegal traffic moves will have the video automatically delivered to local police and get a ticket within minutes of the incidence happeningSo Tesla's AIs, regardless of whether and when they gain sentience, will only have a desire to drive, and will be very easy to bully on the roads.
The irony would be if that's true, then we'll have a reversal and have Model 3 owners complaining about the S and X owners clogging up the Superchargers.
If you absolutely need a car then obviously an EV is best, but ultimately, most of us do not need a car; this is the best solution.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
In previous quarters, when was the cut-off date for the final VIN produced? Ie: when is the last day a VIN release still has a chance of getting built in this quarter?
I'm thinking Tesla is batching VINs for production of SRs as orders are coming in. Likely planning a big push to build as many US SRs as possible before Jul 1st and the US Fed Tax Credit reduction to $1,875
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
First batches of Standard Range Model 3 already built:
If the current bottleneck is the new Grohmann line and if they made this many SR packs in 2 days then that's an initial ramp-up rate of about 1,750 SR's per week - not too bad of a starting point.
Note that this would expand Tesla's battery pack assembly output to about 7,000+1,750 = 8,750 packs/week - subject to further bottlenecks at Fremont (paint shop, body shop, etc.).
Tesla produces first batch of standard Model 3 vehicles
"Electrek was able to confirm with a source familiar with Tesla’s production that the automaker produced an initial batch of over 500 standard Model 3 vehicles over the last two days.
Today, Tesla has 550 standard Model 3 vehicles ready to ship.
In its internal systems, Tesla is also listing the vehicles as ‘Model 3 50’, which is generally a reference to the kWh capacity of the battery pack – meaning that the Standard Range Model 3 battery pack would have a 50 kWh capacity."
"Electrek was able to confirm with a source familiar with Tesla’s production that the automaker produced an initial batch of over 500 standard Model 3 vehicles over the last two days.
Today, Tesla has 550 standard Model 3 vehicles ready to ship.
In its internal systems, Tesla is also listing the vehicles as ‘Model 3 50’, which is generally a reference to the kWh capacity of the battery pack – meaning that the Standard Range Model 3 battery pack would have a 50 kWh capacity."
If the current bottleneck is the new Grohmann line and if they made this many SR packs in 2 days then that's an initial ramp-up rate of about 1,750 SR's per week - not too bad of a starting point.
Note that this would expand Tesla's battery pack assembly output to about 7,000+1,750 = 8,750 packs/week - subject to further bottlenecks at Fremont (paint shop, body shop, etc.).
Makes sense, at least currently. When there are superchargers every 50 miles on interstates and the old ones are 10+ years old it'll make more sense to pull them offline to upgrade.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Anyone doing illegal traffic moves will have the video automatically delivered to local police and get a ticket within minutes of the incidence happening
Elon to team: "WTF, I told you the Model 3 needs a hitch option, not a snitch option!!!"
That is certainly true in many places in Europe. It's not true in North America except for certain high density areas. For example, if I was to take public transportation to work, it would take over three hours to go 32 miles (each way).
Top three stories on my Yahoo"news" feed.
1. SEC seeks to hold Musk in contempt of settlement
2. Tesla and Facebook reputation have taken a huge hit
3.Top Take Tesla workers are loosing confidence in Elon...
Pravda were are you?!?
and a fourth just popped up
4. Elon Musk should feel enabled to step back from Tesla
1. SEC seeks to hold Musk in contempt of settlement
2. Tesla and Facebook reputation have taken a huge hit
3.Top Take Tesla workers are loosing confidence in Elon...
Pravda were are you?!?
and a fourth just popped up
4. Elon Musk should feel enabled to step back from Tesla
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