Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

REVISED 2020Q1 Production Estimate:

Here is my revised 2020Q1 estimated car production: (based on Wikipedia cumul. prod. thru 2019Q4)

(1,000,000 - 921,046) = 78,954 (or 79K cumulative production so far in 2020Q1)​

Then with 21 prod. days left in Q1 (note: Mar 31 is César Chávez Day Stat. Holiday), we expect these numbers:

• 21,000 Model 3 - Fremont (21 days @ 1,000/day)
• 4,000 Model S/X - Fremont (21 days @ 145/day)
• 3,000 Model Y - Fremont (3 wks @ 1K/wk)
• 6,000 Model 3 - Shanghai (3 wks @ 2K/wk)

So given 79K cars produced so far this quarter, then adding 34K more* cars produced in the rest of March, that's a grand total of 113K Est'd Tesla cars produced in 2020Q1.

That's also an 8% increase vs record production of ~105K vehicles in 2019Q4. Impressive achievement during the Model Y rampup in Fremont and the ongoing rampup in Shanghai.

Cheers!

*This may be slightly conservative since a recent report said Shanghai would progress from 2K/wk to 3.5K/wk for rest of March.

Cesar Chavez day I don't think is a 'take work off day' for Tesla. I believe it's more state federal offices. When I was in California from 2015-2019, I don't think I ever got that day off, and most of the businesses in town seemed in operation. Not that I was actively looking, but I don't even recall that day passing, so it was a normal day.

I also want to point that Elon Musk doesn't say whether the 1 millionth car is including the GF3 numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if it was just Fremont numbers.

Q1 is going to be good. And, if the other automakers/industries all show reduced numbers from the Coronavirus, but Tesla is positive/growing, that would make a lot of people go to Tesla as a "safe bet" in the economic down turn.

 

[lklundin]

I just test drove a highest trim Kona Electric a few days ago. It did have several ways in which it was better than a Model 3: ventilated seats

Regarding the seats, I have to say I rather liked the ventilated seats that my now long gone Audi A8 had.

However, Tesla has patented seats with liquid temperature-control, i.e. both heating and cooling!

Since the human body and batteries more or less like the same temperature, it seems like a really good idea - given that right beneath the seats, there already is a liquid heating/cooling system. Naturally, in case the battery temp is 35C+ and its 40C outside, then the seats need their own cooling loop, but still it makes a lot of sense to me - and I think this should be doable without any loss of the car's outstanding efficiency.

So I really hope Tesla can get this to work.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Regarding the seats, I have to say I rather liked the ventilated seats that my now long gone Audi A8 had.

However, Tesla has patented seats with liquid temperature-control, i.e. both heating and cooling!

Since the human body and batteries more or less like the same temperature, it seems like a really good idea - given that right beneath the seats, there already is a liquid heating/cooling system. Naturally, in case the battery temp is 35C+ and its 40C outside, then the seats need their own cooling loop, but still it makes a lot of sense to me - and I think this should be doable without any loss of the car's outstanding efficiency.

So I really hope Tesla can get this to work.

I don't know--if the seats/battery is liquid connected to share the same system, that would add risk to the battery. Seats carry around all sorts of things, from the--uh--heftier population, to dogs, to clawing unhappy cats, to food stuffs for the local church potluck, to sullen teenagers who is going through the spike stage in their high school personas. This all, and including the possibility that the movements of the seats back and forth constantly wears out connectors/hoses, just adds to the likelihood of a leak. A leak in a seat is meh, but a leak from the battery is bad.

Maybe sub-isolated processes, so the water itself doesn't cross over, but it can reuse the pumps/heat/cooling?

 

[Fact Checking]

I don't know--if the seats/battery is liquid connected to share the same system, that would add risk to the battery.

I'd expect any liquid cooling going into the passenger compartment to be on a separate cooling loop coupled to the cooling system via a heat exchanger.

 

[lklundin]

On top of the ventilated seats, sunroof, HUD...I will tell you what my KIA soul EV has over my model X. Accurate range display. The Kia tells you near exactly how much range you have left. The Tesla overestimates by. WHOPpING 35 to 45 per cent (2016 p90d).

The 'estimated SoC at arrival' that my Model 3 continually updates is _very_ accurate, so by keeping one eye on that and the other on my speed, I can arrive at my destination with pretty much exactly my desired SoC.

In January I did write a long post about how this did not work well while driving up to a Supercharger in a mountain pass. I am happy to report that on a similar drive a couple of weeks ago, the SoC estimate worked much better.

On reflection, I think the AP + navigation system should provide an option to 'set desired SoC at arrival' (e.g. 5%, 10%, 20%) and then the car will simply set its speed to arrive with the SoC at that level.

 

[Dare]

I think I’m solid HODL mode, and staying strong in cash.

 

[Pezpunk]

On top of the ventilated seats, sunroof, HUD...I will tell you what my KIA soul EV has over my model X. Accurate range display. The Kia tells you near exactly how much range you have left. The Tesla overestimates by. WHOPpING 35 to 45 per cent (2016 p90d). The Kia also has satellite radio...and it is often we do not have cell service, which makes streaming frustrating.

What’s the Kia lacking asides from superchargers.? Squeaks and rattles

I like driving both for various reasons.

My 2016 P100D range estimate is accurate within 1% every time. no squeaks or rattles, either.

i think the early p90 batteries were pretty problematic. i also think the X maybe ages a little worse than the S, just due to complexity and entropy. neither is a problem the 3 or Y is likely to have.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Mar. 10, 5:48 a.m. EDT
Pre-market $669.47 +61.47 (10.11%)

EDIT:
Pre-Market High: (so far)
$678.02 (06:14:14 AM)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Imma jus leave dis here.

that's some good CGI wot?

 

[Tslynk67]

I just test drove a highest trim Kona Electric a few days ago. It did have several ways in which it was better than a Model 3: ventilated seats, power sunroof, and a heads up display. However, lacking software updates, serious range (258 EPA), and any hint of power, it was hardly a competitor. Ugly screen, lots of knobs and buttons, and driver assist type stuff that didn't seem to work consistently. Also, of course, no obvious charging solution for road trips. The sales guy was very enthusiastic though. Kept telling me how it was the best of the best at various things.

On the whole it wasn't awful. I can imagine they'll sell some to Hyundai customers who want to move away from ICE cars. But there's no way an existing Tesla owner would consider a downgrade like that.

Yeah, had a friend tell me that he was thinking to buy a Kona. I recommended he at least test-drive a Model 3. Obviously he bought the M3 (LR), and adores it.

In other news - last week I was a passenger in an AMG MB (shooting-break, one year old). I have to admit that the car was really well made, very solid, super seats, you could feel the handling was tight, brakes were good, obviously the acceleration was a bit lacking. But what struck me the most is that the guy was using Google Maps navigation on his phone rather than the built-in because "it's not very good, doesn't take into account traffic unless you pay for it, plus I don't really know how to use it, in fact I can't really work out the electrics at all". Indeed, it was up to me to work out how to connect my iPhone through BT in order to stream some music. Couldn't see how to do it at all, then one of the passengers in the back pointed out a joystick/knob device on the centre-console, which I had missed. Even after that it just wasn't at all intuitive.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

In a sane media world, the fact that a single western car company has just made its ONE MILLIONTH electric car would be a major news item that could be linked in to concerns about climate change but...nah.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla sales surprise in China amid crisis, owns about a third of the EV market - Electrek

'According to Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla delivered 3,958 cars in China last month – 400 more electric cars than during the previous month.

The China Passenger Car Association also notes that Tesla sales represented about 30% of all new-energy vehicles, which is how China refers to electric vehicles.'

 

[KarenRei]

REVISED 2020Q1 Production Estimate:

Here is my revised 2020Q1 estimated car production: (based on Wikipedia cumul. prod. thru 2019Q4)

(1,000,000 - 921,046) = 78,954 (or 79K cumulative production so far in 2020Q1)​

Then with 21 prod. days left in Q1 (note: Mar 31 is César Chávez Day Stat. Holiday), we expect these numbers:

• 21,000 Model 3 - Fremont (21 days @ 1,000/day)
• 4,000 Model S/X - Fremont (21 days @ 145/day)
• 3,000 Model Y - Fremont (3 wks @ 1K/wk)
• 6,000 Model 3 - Shanghai (3 wks @ 2K/wk)

So given 79K cars produced so far this quarter, then adding 34K more* cars produced in the rest of March, that's a grand total of 113K Est'd Tesla cars produced in 2020Q1.

That's also an 8% increase vs record production of ~105K vehicles in 2019Q4. Impressive achievement during the Model Y rampup in Fremont and the ongoing rampup in Shanghai.

Cheers!

*This may be slightly conservative since a recent report said Shanghai would progress from 2K/wk to 3.5K/wk for rest of March.

I was looking at your data more closely today and was comparing it to mine, and noticed an oddity, you list 2018'Q3 production at 95,975, while the Q3 P&D report said:

EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001564590-19-036274

"In the third quarter, we achieved record production of 96,155 vehicles and record deliveries of approximately 97,000 vehicles.​

Deliveries reports get revised. I'd recommend using the 10-Qs and 10-Ks. I've seen elsewhere some good looking calculations that pin the produced number at 922.868. But that's just niggling over 2k.

I think Artful Dodger has a good starting basis above. M3 looks good, unless they've had to sacrifice some for MY. I think S/X is too pessimistic, though (works out to 13,2k per quarter). I have no good sense of Model Y, so I guess 1K/wk is as good as any (production rates keep "feeling" higher from what I'm seeing than I logically think they should be). The Shanghai number is pretty pessimistic - February averaged over 1,3k/wk, and that was with 5-day shifts and having to ramp the factory back up in the middle of worker quarantines and supply shortages. They're supposedly going to 3,5k/wk right now. I'd personally go with somewhere in the 2 to 2,5k/wk range.

Overall, though... regardless of how one fiddles with the assumptions, it's way over Factset.

Also: premarket $680.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I was looking at your data more closely today and was comparing it to mine, and noticed an oddity, you list 2018'Q3 production at 95,975, while the Q3 P&D report said:

EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001564590-19-036274

"In the third quarter, we achieved record production of 96,155 vehicles and record deliveries of approximately 97,000 vehicles.​

I.e. your Q3 production count is IMO off by 180 units.

Their P&D reports are usually pretty accurate, but there was a small adjustment in the recently released 10-K, where they characterized 2019 full year production as:

"During 2019, we achieved annual vehicle delivery and production records of 367,656 and 365,232 total vehicles, respectively."​

The four Q1-Q4 production reports disclosed these production figures:

Q1: 77,100
Q2: 87,048
Q3: 96,155
Q4: 104,891

2019 sum: 365,194​

Note the minor downwards adjustment of 38 units in the full-year 2019 10-K.

So IMO for future reference the correct production figures are these 38 fewer units chalked up to Q4 (they might be GF3 trial production scrapped units), which makes the year of 2019:

Q1: 77,100
Q2: 87,048
Q3: 96,155
Q4: 104,853 (adj.)

2019 sum: 365,232​

BTW., what's your source of data for the 2012-2014 years? The first delivery report I found was for 2015 Q1. Did earlier quarterly reports disclose production levels?

So what I do is every quarter i copy the P&D report numbers, but than once the ER is out, I update them. Usually by then they get a bit more accurate especially on the deliveries side . Lately (finally!!!) their ER has a really clear section on this:

So Q3 2019 - which is I think what you mean even though you said 2018 in one line - had 79837 Model 3s and 16318 S/X produced = 95975. I also used this table to confirm and update the last 4 quarters as well.

In terms of 2012-2014, I know Rob Maurer was also complaining about this as well. Frankly I cannot recall the exact source for evey figure as some were difficult to find. I know that some time ago I spent several hours combing through and saving a copy of all Tesla ERs ever and also went through the 10k and P&D reports for missing info.

For 2012 for instance this is what the Q4 ER says:
"We produced over 2,750 vehicles during the quarter and more than 3,100 vehicles during the full year.... As a result, we delivered approximately 2,400 Model S vehicles during the quarter and about 2,650 for the year".

So I've pieced it together like that. Sometimes there was some missing data and i did the math using their official annual numbers and the other quarters they released.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Imma jus leave dis here.

that's some good CGI wot?

is this recent? If I remember correctly this is a picture from january... not?

 

[Highway2Heel]

Tesla, Inc. - Wikipedia

Okay, the above link is all I have to go on but end of 4Q 2019 had 921,046. As has been pointed out, we’re guessing we’re a decent number past one-million by now.

I’m really looking forward to 1Q results.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Imma jus leave dis here.

that's some good CGI wot?

That photo is months old. That car park has been torn up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That photo is months old. That car park has been torn up.

... but is it real or is it memorex"?

 

[jerry33]

On top of the ventilated seats, sunroof, HUD...I will tell you what my KIA soul EV has over my model X. Accurate range display. The Kia tells you near exactly how much range you have left. The Tesla overestimates by. WHOPpING 35 to 45 per cent (2016 p90d).

This has not been my experience. Tesla's estimate is quite accurate in my S (seven years, 130K miles).

 

[Christine69420]

Imma jus leave dis here.

IMG https://www.teslarati.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/gigafactory-3-lot-1536x864.jpg /IMG

that's some good CGI wot?

Hot-linking images like this does only work for those who visited Teslarati in the last few hours. I did not so I just see the text IMG in square brackets.

Uploading the image to TMC solves this issue.