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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
adiggs
Well-Known Member
This is how I see things. If nothing else, a $14B short position is just begging other hedge funds, market makers, etc.. to use the various big short trading strategies against the short position. If you had enough money to fund it, you'd be able to use the market to systematically shift cash from the short holders into your pocket.
So even if I WANTED to short TSLA, I'd be sitting in the wings for a $5B total short position or something closer to that. Let the current overcrowded trade unwind.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I bought some Feb 21, 2020, $620's this morning. They are up 14% since a little before 10am.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Fresh Tweet from Spiegel just in:
"Since I started boxing, I've been punched in the face 100 times. I'm the world's worst boxer. Today, I stepped into the ring and got punched in the face again. Go figure."
Confucius say:
If you're urinating against a strong pressure gradient, and that gradient reverses the direction of your flow to the extent that moisture reaches your lower extremeties, there are only two wise courses of action. First, you can turn around and urinate with the pressure gradient, or for God's sake you can stop urinating.
"Since I started boxing, I've been punched in the face 100 times. I'm the world's worst boxer. Today, I stepped into the ring and got punched in the face again. Go figure."
Confucius say:
If you're urinating against a strong pressure gradient, and that gradient reverses the direction of your flow to the extent that moisture reaches your lower extremeties, there are only two wise courses of action. First, you can turn around and urinate with the pressure gradient, or for God's sake you can stop urinating.
Great story. Warm welcome to TMC to you both !
Thank you. Nissan was good about the deposit refund as well. Looking forward to the model 3 ...and hoping she lets me drive it sometimes.
.Wayyy OT:Damn you!
I watched the entire thing and now I feel this urge to become a triangelist.....
And I can't even find how to spell that correctly.............
How To Be A Professional Triangle Player In 17 Easy Steps
I don’t think it’s about making money/investing anymore for him. It’s all ego, pure emotion and need to be proven right even if it kills you. He will keep shorting and re-shorting it until the day he can say “he was right” or he is completely bankrupt. Whichever comes first. (And we know which one that will be )
He is clearly not behaving in fiduciary interests for his fund’s clients, so how he still has any is a mystery to me.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I'm curious -- are you planning to buy the CHAdeMO adapter ?Thank you. Nissan was good about the deposit refund as well. Looking forward to the model 3 ...and hoping she lets me drive it sometimes.
As I understand things you are a reasonable candidate although Tesla has been expanding the Supercharger network in BC at an impressive pace.
About a year ago I read somewhere (duh, internet!) that there was a project underway to silently raise the causeway to Mar-a-Loco by a few meters, which will keep it from getting totally insulated when the sea rises.
Some advisors in Teh Orange State seem to have a clue after all ...
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
adiggs
Well-Known Member
This is what scares me a bit. Everyone is super bullish on TSLA now, and it never was THAT bullish before.
maybe I just got too used to the prevalence of vivid bearish sentiment so this bullish excitement feels weirdly unnatural.
I can only explain the lack of aggressive bear attacks by the fact that most prominent shortzes are burned to oblivion now and simply don't have money to demonstrate any serious resistance.
anyway, I was targeting 470 as exit point and we passed it so swiftly I didn't even had time to react
in other words - before 470 I was sort of "Bullish AF", and now I stopped worrying and caught marvellous peaceful zen of watching sp approach the moon.
Reasonable reaction to the share price and its rapid move.
An alternative point of view, which would leave you feeling like the current share price is STILL badly undervalued in the short term(*) is 2013. You can take the 2013 share price, multiply by 10, and that's what today feels like to me.
Back then, the shares were trading in the 20s and 30s (200s-300s today), and then (my term) disconnected from the previous trading history. The market collectively realized that 20s and 30s was just wrong for the company. 3-6 months later, the stock had established a new trading range in the 130-180 (1300-1800 in today's dollars).
Of course I don't KNOW that's what's going on today. That's just what I think is going on. And I don't know that the new trading range the market will find is 1300-1800. Maybe it'll be 500-800. Maybe it'll be 2237-2743 (random #s I just made up). I just know that when profits arrive, they'll come with $/share EPS (rather than pennies) due to how few shares there are in circulation. With a 100 PE, you don't need many $/share EPS to get to >$1000 share price.
So if your investment horizon is long term enough (3+ years?), I'd be thinking in really big terms - not the difference between $540 and $575.
(*)by short term, I mean everything under about 6 months, or anything where share price is strongly effected by the current quarter's earnings announcement.
Not advice, just my humble opinion.
dc_h
Active Member
Apologies if cover ad nauseam already, but does anyone expect lawsuits by call holders who closed out of money due to the frivolous NHTSA petition? With today’s move he could be liable for millions in losses. If he knowingly filed and advertised that petition to close out some shorts at a reduced loss, it seems provable and measurable.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Maybe he only shorted 1 share. Then it'd all be true, while also being immaterial.
From the rest of his tweet, I got the idea he increased his exposure from 5% to 10% of his fund. (And then as you say, lost $10/share, and retreated to the 5% of fund level
)
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
That's probably OK. Mothers are very forgiving.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Mark Spiegel is not an investor, he's God's gift to real investors!
Today he helped us break through to new all-time highs.
i work in Microsoft. My colleague told me to buy Nio at 4.0. he probably got it at 2.x . Then the stock price went low to 3.12. I told him: "hey, it dives! " he replied " you call this dive? it will go to 10 soon"
and then it went to 5 .17 today, i cannot resist but bought $9000 worth shares.
I still have $270,000 worth share of TSLA.
and then it went to 5 .17 today, i cannot resist but bought $9000 worth shares.
I still have $270,000 worth share of TSLA.
Yep. We have no choice. The Supercharger network is well developed on the trans Canada highway (the TCH) but off the main route I would think it will be a few years before there is good coverage. However, with a Chademo adapter it pretty much opens up the rest of the province and enables travel in a more relaxed fashion. Having said that I see more future Supercharger locations popping up on the map. Looking good.
Unless of course your pockets are full of a few billion oil and gas subsidy $$$ and preventing tesla 100B valuation to starve out musk from his incentive goal for a little longer is worth the expense.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Yes, because every time they follow Spiegel's lead, they lose more money. He's become their cult hero (in reverse).
Wasn't NIO $9.90 per share when it IPO'd?
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