Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Judging from Porsche’s poor battery specs, my bet is that their battery degradation will also be poor like Nissan. Wait till their customers get a $100k bill to replace their drained batteries.

The high performance driver will keep his Porsche plugged in and charged to 100% so they are ready to go.
This is not a good idea.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Tesla Model 3 named ‘best electric car’ by Edmunds

Tesla Inc.’s Model 3 won Edmunds.com’s best electric vehicle category, with the car shopping website and industry consultant saying that, for its price, no other electric vehicle “comes close to matching” its appeal.

 

[KarenRei]

GF4 gonna be friggin' 'uge

 

[mtndrew1]

Imagine if they came up 2 miles of range shorter and had to display 199.

What will the range be of the closer in price, but still more expensive 4S version, with the smaller pack be?

Likely 179 miles or so.

My understanding is that the lower cost models with the battery pack upgrade will have more range than the Turbo because they won’t have the wide tires and more powerful motor.

But even if the most efficient Taycan gets 25% better range than the Turbo we’re still talking 250 miles for $110,000. And then it’s competing with the Model S Long Range instead of Performance so the Tesla in the same segment will have 373 miles EPA for $30,000 less.

 

[JRP3]

Taycan EPA range is out and...yikes.

View attachment 487066

Tried to do a 2008 Roadster but they didn't have it listed.

 

[Tslynk67]

They will really have to mustard their resources to do so.

Not a good idea, would cause a right pickle.

 

[EVNow]

I don't know whether someone posted this before ...

Tesla's Costs Are Key for the Stock. A Factory Tour Gives a Peek Under the Hood. -- Barrons.com​

Baird analyst Ben Kallo recently took clients to Fremont, Calif., to tour Tesla's primary manufacturing plant. The electric-vehicle pioneer often allows investors to poke around -- supervised -- inside its huge factory.​

The below is new info to me. Are they using the same assembly for all the models - and will be used for Y as well ?

Today, investors can see giant presses stamping aluminum body panels and robots picking batteries and placing them into battery packs that power the electric vehicles. Different model Tesla vehicles run on the same assembly line. Flexibility like that is common in automotive factories. Soon more models, such as the Y, will sit between other vehicles being produced.​

Also, capacity of GF3 is 5k/wk ?

Tesla plans to build 150,000 Model 3 vehicles annually in Shanghai, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner. The Chinese plant will have an annual capacity of 250,000 vehicles. That is about 4,800 cars a week. "Tesla has plans to ramp production up gradually, aiming to make about 1,000 vehicles a week by the end of [2019]," Rosner said in a Monday research report.​

 

[lklundin]

Judging from Porsche’s poor battery specs, my bet is that their battery degradation will also be poor like Nissan. Wait till their customers get a $100k bill to replace their drained batteries.

The Taycan's battery degradation can actually be caused by the very high charging power of 350 kW that they advertise, leading to a Charge-rate (if they actually achieve that goal) of roughly 350kW/100kWh = 3.5/h.

Their much advertised 800V technology will help exactly zero against that.

 

[Doggydogworld]

What will the range be of the closer in price, but still more expensive 4S version, with the smaller pack be?

4S range is 401km WLTP with smaller pack, 463 with larger one.

Turbo range is 388-450 WLTP. Is Turbo also available with the smaller pack? If so, which pack is this 201 mile (323 km) EPA rating?

323 km is 17% less than 388, a large-ish but not unreasonable WLTP to EPA ratio. But it's 28% less than 450, which seems way out of bounds.

There are no Model Y in that photo.

Even if they have a few Model Ys it doesn't mean they were stamped there. They could have brought panels from the US (as they initially did with Model 3) to validate the welding lines, paint shop robots, GA jigs, etc.

 

[KarenRei]

Satellite size comparison. Outside ring had to be completed manually, since it's not done yet.

 

[kbM3]

Everyone knows that Porsches mostly live in the garage and are only driven on nice days. Fifty miles would probably be enough.

I know you’re making a joke, but there is truth to it for sports cars. However, that’s the 2 door, 2 seat Cayman, Boxster and 2+2 seater 911’s. Although Porsche is marketing Taycan as a sports car, it is much more of a GT Tourer, so the limited range (and consequently slower charging) will be a big negative.

My understanding is that the lower cost models with the battery pack upgrade will have more range than the Turbo because they won’t have the wide tires and more powerful motor.

But even if the most efficient Taycan gets 25% better range than the Turbo we’re still talking 250 miles for $110,000. And then it’s competing with the Model S Long Range instead of Performance so the Tesla in the same segment will have 373 miles EPA for $30,000 less.

That larger battery pack is a very expensive option. The Porsche 4S is still more expensive than Model S without that extra cost, and that’s not even referring to the many options one would have to purchase to make it equivalent.

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla Model 3 named ‘best electric car’ by Edmunds

Damn, that must have hurt!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

4S range is 401km WLTP with smaller pack, 463 with larger one.

Turbo range is 388-450 WLTP. Is Turbo also available with the smaller pack? If so, which pack is this 201 mile (323 km) EPA rating?

323 km is 17% less than 388, a large-ish but not unreasonable WLTP to EPA ratio. But it's 28% less than 450, which seems way out of bounds.

Even if they have a few Model Ys it doesn't mean they were stamped there. They could have brought panels from the US (as they initially did with Model 3) to validate the welding lines, paint shop robots, GA jigs, etc.

I think the way to answer that question is to look at the kWh/100 miles in the picture there. It’s 49(!) for the Taycan. 201miles * 49kWh/100miles = 98.49kWh battery. Doesn’t look like a smaller pack to me.

 

[Remster32]

I'm wondering whether this is cell factory output or a battery pack factory with external cell supply (LG Chem)?

10 GWh/yet is roughly 3,500 SR+ packs/week at 54 kWh, which is close to the GF3 Phase 1 nominal output of 3,000/week.

I think the initial phase referred to here is only the battery pack factory portion.

the transcript says roughly the same
i didn’t expect that

Yeah, here is the quote from Elon on the Q2'19 earnings call:

"Since Model Y has high component overlap with Model 3, it should be -- we expect it to be a lot easier to ramp. It's something in the order of 3/4 of all the parts are common between Model 3 and Model Y. And we expect many manufacturing costs for Model Y, despite additional content, to be approximately the same as Model 3."

This still means that the margins will be better due to a higher ASP.

 

[UncaNed]

It sounds like you are thinking my Tesla and PEM stocks are held within an IRA account. They are not. In a year when I sell some Tesla shares, most of the proceeds will be long term capital gains. I'll apply the PEM losses to reduce total Cap gain that year and reduce Cap gain taxes.

No, I'm asking about non-IRA accounts, do I need to restrict all option trading to my IRA account only (for capital gains reasons) or can I have LEAPS in my non-IRA account and still pay only capital gains rate on the long held shares in that same account?

Does "most of the proceeds will be long term capital gains" - mean that in my non-IRA account, I might maintain both shares that will be taxed at the capital gains rate and other shares taxed as regular income rate -without the latter compromising the capital gains rate of the former (assuming they're held long enough)?

Standard capital tax rates for long term holding are not high by any reasonable analysis. They are lower than most peoples earned income tax. That's what leads to the situation where Warren Buffet's secretary is taxed at a higher rate than Warren Buffet himself.

I believe profits from LEAPS and other options are taxed in the same way as stock transactions.

"Taxed in the same way as stock transactions."?? -Meaning I can take the profits from LEAPS (taxed at standard income tax rate, I guess), then buy and hold stock shares that will themselves be taxed as cap gains if held long enough?

Or does the presence of LEAPS and other options in a taxed, non-IRA account always count as "not long-term holdings" where I'll get taxed as regular income vs. at the capital gains rate I'd get in a strict "buy and hold" account even on the long-held shares that have been sitting in that account too?

And is it OK to occasionally at least add shares to "buy and hold" in my non-IRA account and still have it only be taxed at capital gains rate?

Or is it only the selling of shares which I haven't held long enough that loses my capital gains tax rate, regardless of if I bought then with proceeds of a LEAP or something??

I much appreciate the guidance.

 

[kbM3]

4S range is 401km WLTP with smaller pack, 463 with larger one.

Turbo range is 388-450 WLTP. Is Turbo also available with the smaller pack? If so, which pack is this 201 mile (323 km) EPA rating?

323 km is 17% less than 388, a large-ish but not unreasonable WLTP to EPA ratio. But it's 28% less than 450, which seems way out of bounds.

Even if they have a few Model Ys it doesn't mean they were stamped there. They could have brought panels from the US (as they initially did with Model 3) to validate the welding lines, paint shop robots, GA jigs, etc.

As we’ve learned, the WLTP ratings are insanely gameable and all of the Europeans have designed their cars to excel on WLTP, but not in real life or EPA. The Koreans and Tesla have far less variation between the ratings.

The 4S with the optional battery pack, Turbo and Turbo S Models all have the 93.5 kWh pack
The 4S and even lesser models to be introduced will have a 79.2 kWh pack.

Maybe they’re more efficient so they won’t lose the full 15% (30 miles) of range the smaller pack would indicate.

 

[Boomer19]

I think the initial phase referred to here is only the battery pack factory portion.





Yeah, here is the quote from Elon on the Q2'19 earnings call:

"Since Model Y has high component overlap with Model 3, it should be -- we expect it to be a lot easier to ramp. It's something in the order of 3/4 of all the parts are common between Model 3 and Model Y. And we expect many manufacturing costs for Model Y, despite additional content, to be approximately the same as Model 3."

This still means that the margins will be better due to a higher ASP.

very helpful - thank you

 

[JustMe]

Looking forward to the first tear down analysis of the Model Y. I’m especially curious about the new wiring architecture and to what extent that simplifies construction and reduces cost of construction.

 

[kengchang]

Can Taycan use BMW i3's tire to increase range?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Not a good idea, would cause a right pickle.

Lettuce put an end to the bad puns, please.