Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drumheller]

I'll take the letter "S" for 200!

There are 3 "S"... wait for Vanna to touch them...


Also, GJ isn't stupid. He's pushing an agenda and staying in character quite well. No one should follow Gerber. Look at his recent behavior.

 

[Stretch2727]

You know the stock is doing well when you keep selling puts to try to pick up shares at a discount and the price on Friday is such that they don't get assigned. I think this is like the 4th week.

This week I have $255 strike puts and it looks like I just get to keep the premium. Again.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738220696466247698

Bullish for DOJO if you have FOMO. Not a poem, it just rhymes.

 

[aronth5]

Elon Musk's company Hyperloop One is shutting down according to Electrek. Yet another absurd Musk venture burnt to a crisp in his bonfire of lies.



Edit: Yes, I'm being sarcastic.

I think Elon realized the challenging politics, environmental permitting and government bureaucracy would be such a major barrier Hyperloop would never get very far. I suspect the technology challenges would have been solved. And of course he had no time to devote to the energy it would have needed. Too bad.

 

[Maarten]

According to the Dutch online magazine autoweek.nl :
TESLA MODEL Y PROBABLY BEST SELLING CAR IN EUROPE IN 2023

Tl;dr (translated from Dutch):
There is a good chance that the Tesla Model Y will become the best-selling new car in Europe this year.
The Dacia Sandero is close behind, but most likely isn’t going to catch up anymore.
According to the latest expectations including November, the Tesla Model Y will reach almost 230,000 units delivered in Europe this year.
The Dacia Sandero follows in second place, about 13,000 units behind.
The European success of the Model Y is, just like in The Netherlands, largely determined by business drivers, although after a recent price reduction the Model Y is eligible for the Dutch SEPP subsidy.
The Dacia Sandero is the most popular car among private buyers.

 

[unk45]

I know. I was just trying to give another perspective, another way to look at gains that might help a person or two be less resentful giving money away - but as you can see, epic failure.

For my 2c I generally regard taxation as an essential component of civilized society, albeit one that rarely generates enthusiastic support. After all they're taxes, not voluntary contributions.

When I carp on the US system as regards only non-resident citizens, it is basically a taxation without representation issue. Non-residents cannot legally vote in a federal election, nor in almost, if not all State elections. If one cannot vote but is ssstill forced to pay taxes, I object, as do other expatriates but nobody cares because we cannot vote!

For those who really care the solution is to maintain technical residency. I do that buy owning a US property and registering all US based activities there. The only complexity is that it is quite complex and expensive to maintain two independent citizenships and residences. FWIW, my Tesla's thus far have resided in my US abode.

For Tesla the complexity of US, EU, China China factories does present similar challenges but the commercial issues are well documented and understood, as are the ones that apply everywhere they have stores and/or sell their products.

The corporate issues are complex. The individual ones are daunting. Years go when I was a banker I had signature authority on accounts in, IIRC, 34 countries with consequent tax returns in all those countries. Back then I actually never even saw those returns. It was corporate issues.

When Tesla moved from California to Texas they still maintain California taxation, and that State also assiduously ensures that all those Tesla employees who went to Texas still pay California taxes, albeit less so than if they maintained full time CA residency.

These issues may seem arcane and the province of churlish expatriates. In reality these issues are quite relevant to every Tesla shareholder. Quite relevant, but usually with details in tiny footnotes, if they're disclosed at all.

 

[GhostSkater]

For my 2c I generally regard taxation as an essential component of civilized society, albeit one that rarely generates enthusiastic support. After all they're taxes, not voluntary contributions.

When I carp on the US system as regards only non-resident citizens, it is basically a taxation without representation issue. Non-residents cannot legally vote in a federal election, nor in almost, if not all State elections. If one cannot vote but is ssstill forced to pay taxes, I object, as do other expatriates but nobody cares because we cannot vote!

For those who really care the solution is to maintain technical residency. I do that buy owning a US property and registering all US based activities there. The only complexity is that it is quite complex and expensive to maintain two independent citizenships and residences. FWIW, my Tesla's thus far have resided in my US abode.

For Tesla the complexity of US, EU, China China factories does present similar challenges but the commercial issues are well documented and understood, as are the ones that apply everywhere they have stores and/or sell their products.

The corporate issues are complex. The individual ones are daunting. Years go when I was a banker I had signature authority on accounts in, IIRC, 34 countries with consequent tax returns in all those countries. Back then I actually never even saw those returns. It was corporate issues.

When Tesla moved from California to Texas they still maintain California taxation, and that State also assiduously ensures that all those Tesla employees who went to Texas still pay California taxes, albeit less so than if they maintained full time CA residency.

These issues may seem arcane and the province of churlish expatriates. In reality these issues are quite relevant to every Tesla shareholder. Quite relevant, but usually with details in tiny footnotes, if they're disclosed at all.

Out of curiosity, and maybe you answered that before, why didn’t you get a grey import Model 3 here? Seems to be a at least decent support background here, with at least one shop and the big importers flying Tesla techs here if needed

Price seems compelling give the other EVs available officially

 

[Krugerrand]

For my 2c I generally regard taxation as an essential component of civilized society, albeit one that rarely generates enthusiastic support. After all they're taxes, not voluntary contributions.

When I carp on the US system as regards only non-resident citizens, it is basically a taxation without representation issue. Non-residents cannot legally vote in a federal election, nor in almost, if not all State elections. If one cannot vote but is ssstill forced to pay taxes, I object, as do other expatriates but nobody cares because we cannot vote!

For those who really care the solution is to maintain technical residency. I do that buy owning a US property and registering all US based activities there. The only complexity is that it is quite complex and expensive to maintain two independent citizenships and residences. FWIW, my Tesla's thus far have resided in my US abode.

For Tesla the complexity of US, EU, China China factories does present similar challenges but the commercial issues are well documented and understood, as are the ones that apply everywhere they have stores and/or sell their products.

The corporate issues are complex. The individual ones are daunting. Years go when I was a banker I had signature authority on accounts in, IIRC, 34 countries with consequent tax returns in all those countries. Back then I actually never even saw those returns. It was corporate issues.

When Tesla moved from California to Texas they still maintain California taxation, and that State also assiduously ensures that all those Tesla employees who went to Texas still pay California taxes, albeit less so than if they maintained full time CA residency.

These issues may seem arcane and the province of churlish expatriates. In reality these issues are quite relevant to every Tesla shareholder. Quite relevant, but usually with details in tiny footnotes, if they're disclosed at all.

Preaching to the choir, but educational to non-choir members.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Day 12: Twelve Drummers Drumming | Robotaxi at Last​

Part of 12 Days of Christmas - Tesla Edition a series (c) by the Artful Dodger, Dec 2023

Over this Yuletide season, I will post a daily installment focusing on Tesla products, past, present, and future (please note that I will express major themes as short-hand bullet points as yule soon sea. Here's the series so far:

Day 01: A Partridge in a Pear Tree | Roadster Proof of Concept
Day 02: 2 Turtle Doves | S/X Fraternal Twins go Mainstream
Day 03: 3 French Hens | Model 3 Bets the Company
Day 04: 4 Calling Birds | Model Y Built at Four Factories
Day 05: Five Golden Rings | Semi Breaks Physiks
Day 06: Six geese a-laying | Megapack To Excel
Day 07: Seven Swans a-Swimming | Cybertourdeforce
Day 08: Eight Maids A-Milking | Model 2 World Car
Day 09: Nine Ladies Dancing | Dojo as a Service[/HEADING]
Day 10: Ten Lords A-Leaping | Teslabot FTW
Day 11: Eleven Pipers Piping | FSD Or Bust

Intro to Part 12: Twelve Drummers Drumming | Robotaxi at Last​

On July 20, 2016, Elon posted a blog on Tesla's website: Master Plan, Part Deux In it, he introduced the concept that Tesla cars could earn money instead of sitting idle for hours each day:

"In short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:"

• Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
• Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
• Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
• Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

Thus was the genesis of the Robotaxi fleet, a.k.a. "Tesla Network" or TN. Let's explore the rationale, the potential solution, and the resistance to that solution. Lastly, we'll touch on the economics and business implications. Are you ready? Let's GO! (shout out to Warren Redlich)

1. The Problem of Car Ownership: "I like to move it, move it"​

• The most fundamental problem with the way we buy and use cars is that they sit mostly unused for 20+ hrs per day. In fact, they don't just sit idle: they use land for parking, and literally depreciate while they sit waiting
• Cars were build to move. As they get more complex and more expensive, it makes simple economic sense to build fewer cars, but to use each more.
• This is the business model behind rentals and ride-hailing, but they both have one achilles heel: the cost of human labor (at the rental agency, or the driver) is still more expensive in many circumstances than letting a car sit unused. Labor is that valuable
• For example, ride-hailing service Uber often charges $1-$2 per mile, plus surge prices. Meanwhile, the cost of the car (even an ICE-burg) is often only $0.50 or half the cost of labor
• So common folks are stuck in an economic trap: overpay for the convenience of car ownership, or overpay for the convenience of hiring a car

Lesson 1: Transporation should be about convenience; instead its a bother

2. Work, Play or Sleep while you Ride - "Enter the Sandman"​

• The obvious solution is cars that drive themselves (see Day 11 for FSD).
• Without a human driver, and with the lower TCO of EVs, ride-hail could be profitable at half-the cost to customers
• If Tesla solves Autonomy, they will have a huge 1st-mover advantage in a winner-takes-most, $10T market (per ARK Invest 2023 whitepaper)
• I have purposely ordered this business line at the end of Tesla's notable series of accomplishments, simple due to the technical challenges, and the likely resistance from luddites (ie: Dan O'Cloudy, Union-owned Gov't)

Lesson 2: Create a solution where more people are happy and productive, more of the time

3. Fighting the Future - "But my Job (...that I hate)"​

• The problem with the solution is that some people lose their jobs, and some lose income. Whether you drive a Cab, or own a Cab company, there will be less "cabbage" in an Automous future
• Unions especially are afraid of the future, and think little about using mafia-like tactics to forestall the inevitable
• Its very likely that some jurisdictions will be slow to adopt, while some may ban autonomus cars altogether because of these irrational fears of economic loss (BTW, its always a net gain to give people back their time)
• However, more forward-looking jursidictions will become the early-adopters, and their postive experiences and obvious competitive advantages will become undeniable over time (what stays in Vegas?)
• I look for places like Las Vegas and Dubai to be among the first cities to approve Tesla robotaxis
• Ride hailing is just the first application: EV Class 8 transport trucks like Tesla Semi will lower the cost of logistics for most of the goods people buy via lower operating costs and more productive labor (3 trucks, 1 driver platoon)
• This doesn't mean we have less: it means goods cost less, more money left over for other things

Lesson 3: The future is bright, if you would just open your eyes...

Conclusion:​

Both institutional investors like Cathie Wood's ARK Invest and retail investors like Warren Redlich have a long history of predicting Tesla's value based solely on the future value of the Transportation as a Service (TaaS) business opportunity. This is a nascent market which could be worth $10T by 2030, and it could well boost TSLA shares 10x or more from current levels.

Thank you for your attention, Merry Christmas, and Happy Holidays, Everyone!

Cheers, Lodger

*FIN*

 

[Fred42]

Day 12: Twelve Drummers Drumming | Robotaxi at Last​

Part of 12 Days of Christmas - Tesla Edition a series (c) by the Artful Dodger, Dec 2023

Over this Yuletide season, I will post a daily installment focusing on Tesla products, past, present, and future (please note that I will express major themes as short-hand bullet points as yule soon sea. Here's the series so far:

Day 01: A Partridge in a Pear Tree | Roadster Proof of Concept
Day 02: 2 Turtle Doves | S/X Fraternal Twins go Mainstream
Day 03: 3 French Hens | Model 3 Bets the Company
Day 04: 4 Calling Birds | Model Y Built at Four Factories
Day 05: Five Golden Rings | Semi Breaks Physiks
Day 06: Six geese a-laying | Megapack To Excel
Day 07: Seven Swans a-Swimming | Cybertourdeforce
Day 08: Eight Maids A-Milking | Model 2 World Car
Day 09: Nine Ladies Dancing | Dojo as a Service[/HEADING]
Day 10: Ten Lords A-Leaping | Teslabot FTW
Day 11: Eleven Pipers Piping | FSD Or Bust

Intro to Part 12: Twelve Drummers Drumming | Robotaxi at Last​

On July 20, 2016, Elon posted a blog on Tesla's website: Master Plan, Part Deux In it, he introduced the concept that Tesla cars could earn money instead of sitting idle for hours each day:

"In short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:"

• Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
• Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
• Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
• Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

Thus was the genesis of the Robotaxi fleet, a.k.a. "Tesla Network" or TN. Let's explore the rational, Tesla's potential solution, and the resistance to that solution. Lastly, we'll touch on the economics and business implications. Are you ready? Let's GO! (shout out to Warren Redlich)

1. The Problem of Car Ownership: "I like to move it, move it"​

• The of the fundamental problems with the way we buy and use cars is that they mostly sit unused for 20+ hrs per day. In fact, they don't just sit idle: they use land as parking space, and are literally depreciate while they wait
• Cars were build to move. As they get more complex and more expensive, it makes economic sense to build fewer cars, but use them more.
• This is the business model behind rentals, and ride-hailing, but they both have one achilles heel: the cost of human labor (whether at the rental agency or as the driver) is still more expensive in many circumstances than letting a car sit unused
• For example, ride-hailing service Uber often charges from $1 to $2 per mile, plus surge prices
• Meanwhile, the cost of the car (even for an ICE-burg) is often only $0.50 or half of the labor
• So common folks are stuck in an economic trap, overpay for the convenience of owning their own car, or overpay for the convenience of hiring a car

Lesson 1: Transporation should be about convenience, instead its a bother

2. Work, Play or Sleep while you Ride - "Enter the Sandman"​

• The obvious solution is cars that drive themselves (see Day 11 for details on FSD).
• Without a human driver, and with the lower TCO of EVs, ride-hail could be profitable at half-the cost to customers (unlonking a $10T market, according to ARK Invest)
• If Tesla solves Autonomy, they have the 1st-mover advantage in a winner-takes-most market
• I have purposely ordered this business line at the end or Tesla's series of accomplishments, simple due to the technical challenges, and the likely resistance from luddites (ie: Dan O)

Lesson 2: Create a solution where more people are happy and productive, more of the time

3. Fighting the Future - "But my Job (that I hate)"​

• The problem with the solution is that some people loose their jobs, and income. Whether you drive a Cab, or own a Cab, there will be less "cabbage" in an Automous future
• Unions especially are afraid of the future, and think little about using mafia-like tactics to forestall the inevitable
• Its very likely that some jurisdictions will be slow to adopt, while some may ban autonomus cars altogether because of these irrational fears of economic loss (BTW, its a net gain to give people their time back)
• However, more forward-looking jursidictions will become the early-adopters, and their postive experiences and obvious competitive advantages will become undeniable over time
• I look for places like Las Vega and Dubai to be among the first cities to approve Tesla robotaxis
• And ride hailing is just the first application. EV Transport trucks like Tesla Semi stand to lower the cost of logistics for most of the goods people buy via lower operating costs and less labor
• This doesn't mean we have less: it means goods cost less, more money left over for other things

Lesson 3: The future is bright if you just open your eyes

Conclusion:​

Both institutional Investors like Cathie Wood's ARK Invest and retail investors like Warren Redlich have a long history of predicting Tesla's future value based solely on the value of the Transportation as a Service (TaaS) business opportunity. This is a nascent market which could be worth $10T by 2030,, and it could well boost TSLA shares 10x or more from current levels.

Thank you for your attention, Merry Christmas, and Happy Holidays, Everyone!

Cheers, Lodger

*FIN*

Do you have a day job?

 

[jerry33]

I think Elon realized the challenging politics, environmental permitting and government bureaucracy would be such a major barrier Hyperloop would never get very far. I suspect the technology challenges would have been solved. And of course he had no time to devote to the energy it would have needed. Too bad.

Hyperloop One was never Elon's company to start with. The original story is just clickbait.

 

[loquitur]

For my 2c I generally regard taxation as an essential component of civilized society, albeit one that rarely generates enthusiastic support. After all they're taxes, not voluntary contributions.

When I carp on the US system as regards only non-resident citizens, it is basically a taxation without representation issue. Non-residents cannot legally vote in a federal election, nor in almost, if not all State elections. If one cannot vote but is ssstill forced to pay taxes, I object, as do other expatriates but nobody cares because we cannot vote!

For those who really care the solution is to maintain technical residency. I do that buy owning a US property and registering all US based activities there. The only complexity is that it is quite complex and expensive to maintain two independent citizenships and residences. FWIW, my Tesla's thus far have resided in my US abode.

For Tesla the complexity of US, EU, China China factories does present similar challenges but the commercial issues are well documented and understood, as are the ones that apply everywhere they have stores and/or sell their products.

The corporate issues are complex. The individual ones are daunting. Years go when I was a banker I had signature authority on accounts in, IIRC, 34 countries with consequent tax returns in all those countries. Back then I actually never even saw those returns. It was corporate issues.

When Tesla moved from California to Texas they still maintain California taxation, and that State also assiduously ensures that all those Tesla employees who went to Texas still pay California taxes, albeit less so than if they maintained full time CA residency.

These issues may seem arcane and the province of churlish expatriates. In reality these issues are quite relevant to every Tesla shareholder. Quite relevant, but usually with details in tiny footnotes, if they're disclosed at all.

A correction is needed here about voting while living abroad -- it's done all the time by U.S. citizens, per:

How to Vote from Abroad: An Overseas Voting Explainer from U.S. Vote Foundation | Overseas Vote

Everything you need to know as a US citizen living abroad and voting from overseas. Vote from abroad with our easy-to-use guides, forms, and election info.

www.usvotefoundation.org

 

[madodel]

When I carp on the US system as regards only non-resident citizens, it is basically a taxation without representation issue. Non-residents cannot legally vote in a federal election, nor in almost, if not all State elections. If one cannot vote but is ssstill forced to pay taxes, I object, as do other expatriates but nobody cares because we cannot vote!

All US citizens can vote in federal elections even if out of the country. See: Overseas Citizen Voters State and local elections usually require you to state you plan to return to the US to continue to vote in their elections.

 

[mongo]

Hyperloop One was never Elon's company to start with. The original story is just clickbait.

The original headline was clickbait, but the article itself is decent.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do you have a day job?

Yes, what did you think of today's work? Pay? 10x what I was getting at my last one.

 

[DFibRL8R]

https://x.com/joetegtmeyer/status/1738274490163876047?s=46&t=8bSGJfPC6xum8MkFGUT32A

80+ Cybertrucks on the lot in Texas

 

[SmokyPeat]

Well, it appears the Grinch is in control of the share price on this last trading day before Christmas.
and so this bit of poetry shouldn't hurt the cause...
View attachment 1002123

I appreciate this group & I wish you warm and wonderful Holidays......

You scrooged us with that saccharine Grinch poem. Merry Christmas!

 

[Todd Burch]

https://x.com/joetegtmeyer/status/1738274490163876047?s=46&t=8bSGJfPC6xum8MkFGUT32A

80+ Cybertrucks on the lot in TexasView attachment 1002202

Still not definitive evidence, but:

If there were 40 spotted in the lot yesterday, none were shipped and we now have 80, that implies 40/day.

If all were shipped, that implies 80/day.

If some were brought out from inside or came from elsewhere, that implies less than 40/day.

So I think the best educated guess of the current run rate is 40/day, +/- 40/day.

Subscribe to my Patreon.

 

[navguy12]

Can anyone with shipping expertise speak to how/if this will become problematic for Tesla next quarter:

In normal times, the Panama Canal has capacity to handle 36 ships a day. But as water has grown scarcer, the canal authority has reduced that number to 22. By February, it will be just 18.

Changing climate casts a shadow over the future of the Panama Canal – and global trade

Facing a near unprecedented ‘rainfall deficit’, the Panama Canal has been forced to restrict the number of vessels passing through it

www.theguardian.com

 

[mongo]

Can anyone with shipping expertise speak to how/if this will become problematic for Tesla next quarter:

Changing climate casts a shadow over the future of the Panama Canal – and global trade

Facing a near unprecedented ‘rainfall deficit’, the Panama Canal has been forced to restrict the number of vessels passing through it

www.theguardian.com

I can't think of anything Tesla would be shipping via that route. S/X exports to Europe ship from the east coast/ Gulf last I knew.
Maybe supply base would incur higher costs.