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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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No L3 charging makes the Bolt a 250-mile range 'city car'. Some people say half the value in their Tesla is the convenience of road trips with the Supercharger network. Big difference, which will continue with the Tesla Compact Car (a.k.a. "Model 2").
Well, it has L3 charging...it is just capped to 50kw (max). Sadly, my wife sat at more than one supercharger at similar speeds with our old 2013 P85+ after Tesla capped charging speeds on the old cars. The real value of the superchargers over the competition isn't charge speed though. It's the sheer volume of superchargers. When we got the Model S there were 2 on her route from Dallas to San Antonio to see her sister... now there are like 10 or 11!
 
Farzad had this good table of US EV pricing now in his Video today, with this one ordered by “net price” (after EV tax credit applied):

View attachment 929388

Full video here:

I can't get past that first line disclaimer of the table:
DEALER MARKUPS FOR NON-TESLA NOT INCLUDED IN PRICE.
Therefore all consumer pricing information (except for Tesla which has no Dealers, no mark-up) is invalid. Tesla value comparison to OEM is far greater than shown in the table.

Just one example:
Screen Shot 2023-04-18 at 8.18.13 AM.png
 
I can't get past that first line disclaimer of the table:
DEALER MARKUPS FOR NON-TESLA NOT INCLUDED IN PRICE.
Therefore all consumer pricing information (except for Tesla which has no Dealers, no mark-up) is invalid. Tesla value comparison to OEM is far greater than shown in the table.

Just one example:
View attachment 929471

There's always dealers with an insane mark-up. Helps to keep the vehicle as a demo unless a mug walks in.

Bolt has a long wait. With the tax credit restored, they can't/don't want to make enough of them at the price.

They could have said Dealer markups/discounts and state incentives not included.
There are states (like Maine) where Tesla can't qualify for state incentives.

The table is also unrealistic because it uses the EPA estimated range instead of a realistic number.

And the net price label is wrong. It's not a net price.
 
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Well, it has L3 charging...it is just capped to 50kw (max). Sadly, my wife sat at more than one supercharger at similar speeds with our old 2013 P85+ after Tesla capped charging speeds on the old cars. The real value of the superchargers over the competition isn't charge speed though. It's the sheer volume of superchargers. When we got the Model S there were 2 on her route from Dallas to San Antonio to see her sister... now there are like 10 or 11!
I thought the news was that GM have suggested not to use the DC charging. That is the killer.
 
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I'm both looking forward to and dreading earnings tomorrow.

Looking forward because I always love to find out how the company is doing financially.

Dreading because I do feel, given all the price cuts, that our margins are going to be taking a sizable hit tomorrow. A large enough hit to hurt the stock and drive us down lower again.

It's all short term noise of course and it won't impact my TSLA holdings whatsoever, but still, I'd rather the stock go UP than DOWN... 😔
We have already established that the WS is rigged enough that earnings can be interpreted in any way WS wants. It is a fact of life and until it changes and goes back to proper fundamentals we are sugared.

I am not holding my breath.
 
Downvote for using city car for a long-range EV. It has CCS, but slow, so it's more an in-range car or day-tripper, but a long-range BEV's range can cover a lot of driving within range.
As long as it's not cold, windy, rainy and/or you have a heavy foot. I suppose it also depends on your city size.
 
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Well, it has L3 charging...it is just capped to 50kw (max). Sadly, my wife sat at more than one supercharger at similar speeds with our old 2013 P85+ after Tesla capped charging speeds on the old cars. The real value of the superchargers over the competition isn't charge speed though. It's the sheer volume of superchargers. When we got the Model S there were 2 on her route from Dallas to San Antonio to see her sister... now there are like 10 or 11!
The capping is a big reason why I now drive an X.
 
I know everyone believes the $25k electric car will ignite sales like never before, but when you look at the Bolt it is practically already there...heck the regular Bolt is less than $20k with the rebate! I'm sure the Tesla version will be better (and more "cool/desirable"), but it isn't just about price apparently either (for the consumer). Of course the elephants in the room are 1.) GM is likely losing money on every Bolt/Bolt EUV they sell, 2.) They are production limited with this "last gen" car/battery/etc, and 3.) The dealers make it difficult to actually find cars at these prices that aren't loaded up or have "dealer installed options". Still...a 250+ mile $25k (money losing) car exists...for those that can find one.
I have to admit being tempted to pick up a base Bolt EUV at these prices...

Yes, it exists, and despite 100% of previous ones being recalled for catching on fire-- GM literally can not build enough of them to keep up with demand. That's why they're hard to find and dealers can add insane "market adjustment" taxes on top they put in their pockets.

Now imaging someone actually competent at manufacturing made a 25k EV, it was better, quicker, profitable, had a real L3 charging network, and was actually produced in large #s and actually sold for MSRP.
 
Yahoo Finance
View attachment 929488
Would any number above 0.85 Earnings Per Share raise TSLA? If not, what is The Street's whisper number?

With a little EPS boost from Energy sales and auto's increasing economy of scale, plus any other cost reductions achieved, is there any good reason to expect much of an EPS drop at all due to auto pricing changes?
 
Yes, it exists, and despite 100% of previous ones being recalled for catching on fire-- GM literally can not build enough of them to keep up with demand. That's why they're hard to find and dealers can add insane "market adjustment" taxes on top they put in their pockets.

Now imaging someone actually competent at manufacturing made a 25k EV, it was better, quicker, profitable, had a real L3 charging network, and was actually produced in large #s and actually sold for MSRP.
Indeed. GM has admitted they are losing money on these, so that price is fake, in the sense that it can't be sustained long term or at volume.
A more useful chart might have net price, but only include cars that we know (or suspect strongly) are at least break-even.
 
Yes, it exists, and despite 100% of previous ones being recalled for catching on fire-- GM literally can not build enough of them to keep up with demand. That's why they're hard to find and dealers can add insane "market adjustment" taxes on top they put in their pockets.

Now imaging someone actually competent at manufacturing made a 25k EV, it was better, quicker, profitable, had a real L3 charging network, and was actually produced in large #s and actually sold for MSRP.


What Percentage of Americans Own a Car?​


% of Households % Change in Vehicle Ownership
Number of vehicles avilable201720212017-2021
3 or more20.60%22.10%7.28%
237.40%37.10%-0.80%
133.20%32.50%-2.11%
08.80%8.30%-5.68%

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau’s 5-Year American Community Survey

Don't even need the good charging network to sell at the moment.
 
We have already established that the WS is rigged enough that earnings can be interpreted in any way WS wants. It is a fact of life and until it changes and goes back to proper fundamentals we are sugared.

I am not holding my breath.

Indeed, Adam Jonas / MorganStanley already started moving the goalposts in yesterday's Note to Investors : (AJ needs to create churn, the way a Maestro needs to conduct an orchestra)

MS/AJ: "Earnings Preview: 1Q May be OK but Forward Margins at Risk from Continued Price Cuts"

morgan-stanley-earnings-preview-1q23-may-be-ok-but.png


AJ's prepping the feigning goats of Wall St Market that the FUN FUD never ends, no matter what Tesla achieves. At least not as long shortzes are making stupid $$ off it.

Shameful business, that. Holding the world back is NOT an honorable profession.

Word.
 
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Yahoo Finance
View attachment 929488
Would any number above 0.85 Earnings Per Share raise TSLA? If not, what is The Street's whisper number?
No, no number or beat on earnings will raise the share price. In fact making TSLA investment grade has lowered the price. Producing and delivering cars in exchange for money on an ongoing basis has actually decreased the share price most recently over the past year. I wonder if the market knows of any metric to quantify this? /s
 
While an earnings beat would be lovely, what I really want to hear during the earnings call are the sweet words “we project margins to increase as the year progresses.”

That would destroy the bear narrative.
Would also be great to hear Elon say "I have a really good feeling about the economy."
 
Indeed, Adam Jonas / MorganStanley already started moving the goalposts in yesterday's Note to Investors : (AJ needs to create churn, the way a Maestro needs to conduct an orchestra)

MS/AJ: "Earnings Preview: 1Q May be OK but Forward Margins at Risk from Continued Price Cuts"


AJ's prepping the market (thru his goats followers on Wall St.) that the FUN FUD never ends, no matter what Tesla achieves. At least not as long shortzes are making stupid $$ off it.

Shameful business, that. Holding the world back is NOT an honorable profession.

Word.
How many times - over the years - have we heard an analyst say about Tesla "sure, they may have done great so far, for years in fact... but this quarter - this very quarter right here - things are gonna turn bad for Tesla. You gotta believe me!!!"
 
Well, it has L3 charging...it is just capped to 50kw (max). Sadly, my wife sat at more than one supercharger at similar speeds with our old 2013 P85+ after Tesla capped charging speeds on the old cars. The real value of the superchargers over the competition isn't charge speed though. It's the sheer volume of superchargers. When we got the Model S there were 2 on her route from Dallas to San Antonio to see her sister... now there are like 10 or 11!
True. But that supercharger advantage is on the way out with tesla opening up the network to other brand. Within a few years buy whatever you like and you can still use the supercharger network.