Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Max Plaid]

Looks like Tesla have made big steps towards ending the delivery wave in the EU, more cars delivered in Norway this month than all the first month/quarter of the previous two years

Same in Denmark I believe, likely elsewhere too, one would assume

 

[Artful Dodger]

How many times - over the years - have we heard an analyst say about Tesla "sure, they may have done great so far, for years in fact... but this quarter - this very quarter right here - things are gonna turn bad for Tesla. You gotta believe me!!!"

For me, 21 Quarters now. The first memorable one for me was July 2nd, 2018 when (surprise!) AJ of MorganStanley said 'sure, Tesla made 5K Model 3s in a single week in June, but that 5K Production Rate CAN'T LAST'.

... And this is how the Market responded the day following AJ's July 2018 miss-ive: (Prices are Pre-pre-split, so divide'n'conquer) Wanna see the July 3rd chart?

TL;dr It's a rigged casino. Play at yer own risk. Buy'n'Hold FTW, IMO.

Cheers!

 

[aubreymcfato]

Looks like Tesla have made big steps towards ending the delivery wave in the EU, more cars delivered in Norway this month than all the first month/quarter of the previous two years

Same in Denmark I believe, likely elsewhere too, one would assume

View attachment 929511

Gigafactory Berlin is a blessing for Europe, Tesla will save tens of millions only in logistics and less importing from Shanghai.

 

[AndrewZ]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the team start pushing focus away from margins on new vehicle sales tbh -- side note that last quarter Zach was already encouraging people to look moreso at operating margins than gross margins.

Elon has talked before about the dynamic in the vehicle industry around new car sales: existing auto companies don't make money on new car sales. New cars are effectively sold at 0% margin in most cases, and typical car companies make most of their money on servicing and high-margin parts after the fact. Tesla's angle would moreso be around software, maybe charging and such?

You can listen to Elon here discussing it and one of the early conversations he had with some unnamed person who is supposedly the greatest auto investor, how this was a massive barrier to entry for new car companies and something Tesla needed to overcome

Maybe they will indeed recognize more FSD revenue this quarter to bump up margins lost from the price cuts, and that will further reinforce the idea that margins will come from software moving forward

 

[Captkerosene]

It's the narrative, not the earnings, that will soon be driving share price. Once people understand that AI will be disrupting much of the economy they will look for ways to capitalize on that knowledge. Subject matter experts will be advising their clients that the time is now to invest in this tech. Tesla will finally make the jump from being a car company to being an AI company.

 

[betstarship]

Anyone have data on thefts and vandalism with teslas by year? I can't find anything on various searches.

 

[philw1776]

It's the narrative, not the earnings, that will soon be driving share price. Once people understand that AI will be disrupting much of the economy they will look for ways to capitalize on that knowledge. Subject matter experts will be advising their clients that the time is now to invest in this tech. Tesla will finally make the jump from being a car company to being an AI company.

I'd like to think so but then why did Musk just start a separate AI company from Tesla?

 

[jerry33]

True. But that supercharger advantage is on the way out with tesla opening up the network to other brand. Within a few years buy whatever you like and you can still use the supercharger network.

This is only for new V4 SCs. There are a lot of V2/3 SCs out there that will not be replaced for a long time.

 

[betstarship]

Here's a little bit and I find nothing much past 2018 even by the National Insurance Crime Bureau which tracks this stuff.

Why is a Tesla so hard to steal?

Guest contributor: EVBite Thieves are having a hard time stealing vehicles made by Tesla. According to the Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI), Tesla's 2016-2018 Model S and X was among the least stolen vehicles, only beaten by the BMW 3 series. The institute claims this is due to electric cars...

evannex.com

More: Nationwide Auto Thefts Surpass One Million | Agency Checklists

 

[jerry33]

I'd like to think so but then why did Musk just start a separate AI company from Tesla?

You really don't know? A non-public company is not subject to Wall Street's game playing. Public company is only if you really need the money. Anything you can self-finance (with a few big investors) is much better being private.

 

[Nocturnal]

You really don't know? A non-public company is not subject to Wall Street's game playing. Public company is only if you really need the money. Anything you can self-finance (with a few big investors) is much better being private.

That's counter to his very recent comments about how AI should come from a public company so that people can "vote" by buying shares.

 

[NicoV]

Gigafactory Berlin is a blessing for Europe, Tesla will save tens of millions only in logistics and less importing from Shanghai.

There are currently only 2 ships en route to europe from Shanghai. It seems more and more GF Berlin production for Europe instead of Chinese production.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 11:06 am EDT

Recent Filing Shows That Rep. Daniel Goldman Bought Over $115K Worth of Tesla Stock​

 

[NicoV]

This is only for new V4 SCs. There are a lot of V2/3 SCs out there that will not be replaced for a long time.

It's really not.

Tesla is only opening up ~10% of the SpC network.

In Europe practically all V3 chargers are open to non-Teslas.
This is the way.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Anyone have data on thefts and vandalism with teslas by year? I can't find anything on various searches.

Vandalism of Teslas should be quite low due to 24/7 multiple security cameras. And if vandalized, good chance of determining culprit for retribution.

Thefts of Teslas should be near zero. When you have multiple cell phones tracking real time location. Also the Tesla technology to access the car cannot be duplicated AFAIK. Recently was listening to a local radio show about how to prevent car thefts which have increased significantly in Canada's largest city. The radio show had a police officer on as a guest. At one point the officer stated, "or you can just buy a Tesla. Nobody steals Teslas." Priceless.

 

[Curt Renz]

Elon will be interviewed by an NBC advertising executive at 12:55 pm EDT today.

Elon Musk to be interviewed by NBCUniversal

 

[Captkerosene]

I'd like to think so but then why did Musk just start a separate AI company from Tesla?

We're in "real world" AI. We've carved out a nice (not so little and far less competitive) niche in the greater AI universe.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I'm both looking forward to and dreading earnings tomorrow.

Looking forward because I always love to find out how the company is doing financially.

Dreading because I do feel, given all the price cuts, that our margins are going to be taking a sizable hit tomorrow. A large enough hit to hurt the stock and drive us down lower again.

It's all short term noise of course and it won't impact my TSLA holdings whatsoever, but still, I'd rather the stock go UP than DOWN...

Regarding margins, hopefully pros should outweigh cons:

CONS:
- price cuts

PROS:
- increased efficiencies of manufacturing (more giga castings, greater use of robots, less labour costs)
- increased economies of scale
- GF Berlin and GF Austin scaling up production:
- - eliminated import duties for many deliveries
- - reduced transportation expenses for many deliveries
- country exchange rate changes with weakening USD

As others here on TMC stated, even if a beat on margins, another red herring would be pulled out of the sea as reason not to invest in Tesla. I would expect TSLA price to be range bound between $150 and $225 until such time as Cybertruck manufacturing commences in earnest. Any short term bets on TSLA are a fools errand.

 

[Mengy]

Benzinga - 11:06 am EDT

Recent Filing Shows That Rep. Daniel Goldman Bought Over $115K Worth of Tesla Stock​

Lightweight.

 

[philw1776]

It's the narrative, not the earnings, that will soon be driving share price. Once people understand that AI will be disrupting much of the economy they will look for ways to capitalize on that knowledge. Subject matter experts will be advising their clients that the time is now to invest in this tech. Tesla will finally make the jump from being a car company to being an AI company.

I'd like to think so but then why did Musk just start a separate AI company from Tesla?

You really don't know? A non-public company is not subject to Wall Street's game playing. Public company is only if you really need the money. Anything you can self-finance (with a few big investors) is much better being private.

That's counter to his very recent comments about how AI should come from a public company so that people can "vote" by buying shares.

MY QUESTION WAS REGARDING THE BOLD
If positioning Tesla as a high growth AI company is the goal (which I for one like) then making a separate AI company dilutes the TESLA goal.
My answer to my question is that Elon see the new AI company having a specific focus...war vs ChatGPT. He'd like to keep such possible contentiousness away from Tesla. Also it lets him attract talent with the potential for large stock option rewards.