Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WADan]

It will almost certainly happen.

Pretty sure contingency plans Tesla has set up will allow them to continue to produce on much higher level than previously. Unless, of course, the positive occurs in the factory itself.

Then, Tesla will have to tear down the entire factory, quarantine all of the staff in a windowless steel room with exit points welded shut for six months and then soak the ground within a five mile radius in viricides for a year. Then they can rebuild with new COVID proof construction protocols. Of course, if a positive occurs…

Over the weekend, I had a chat with my nephew-in-law (who is CFO of a laser making company which has a small factory in China). He said one of his employees was quarantined in China, and it was the most inhumane possible situation. It’s unbelievable to hear how a government can treat their citizens like that!

 

[Ogre]

Tesla has been remarkably open about what it takes to do autonomous driving. Assuming Tesla doesn’t have the completely wrong approach, there is a *sugar* ton of infrastructure, engineering, and fleet data you need, which NO ONE else has. So I’m not at all surprised. These other companies haven’t made enough progress and we are in an investment winter.

Of course, the Cruise and Google ivory tower folks say that Tesla doesn’t know what they are doing. If I had to choose who to believe, Tesla with a million cars on the road, and the others with hundreds of geo fenced cars, well, it isn’t a very hard choice!

How many billions has Tesla spent on FSD? How do you convince Ford/ GM/ etc to put billions of dollars in equipment into vehicles when it won‘t pay out fully for 5+ years?

Tesla is at the moment the only company with much chance to get there from here.

 

[JRP3]

If commodity prices are roughly where they are today

Lithium has gone insane since then, luckily it's a small percentage of pack cost. Copper up some.

 

[Nocturnal]

Trying to buy a new LR X before the end of the year and it looks like it will be difficult. No demand I guess.

Wish me luck.

 

[WattsHappening]

Anyone happen to know the take rate for premium connectivity in the Tesla fleet? Can't find it anywhere online.

Gotta be high. Music and nav is lame without it.

Don't forget much of the current fleet were grandfathered into free lifetime connectivity. I don't recall when they started to only provide a year of connectivity.

But agree with @Prunesquallor. Can't imagine driving a Tesla without premium connectivity. I would think it has to be 90-95%+? We just started paying for our MY (delivery in September 2021).

 

[wipster]

Don't forget much of the current fleet were grandfathered into free lifetime connectivity. I don't recall when they started to only provide a year of connectivity.

But agree with @Prunesquallor. Can't imagine driving a Tesla without premium connectivity. I would think it has to be 90-95%+? We just started paying for our MY (delivery in September 2021).

How much does it cost per month/annum? I see all the lease returns come with FSD but only a month's worth of premium connectivity just to whet your whistle...

Edit: and just what do you get with it? Just curious as I have no idea of the difference. Can you get Tidal or Qobuz using it? I've been a Tidal user for years because of the quality but lately I've been listening to Qobuz and am pretty damn impressed with the Hi Rez content they have. Bonnie Raitt and Tedeschi Trucks have never sounded better!

 

[Discoducky]

Installing now...but I doubt this is 2.4

2022.20.19 Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates

Tesla software update 2022.20.19 (FSD 10.69.2.4) includes Full Self-Driving (Beta) Suspension, FSD Beta v10.69.2.4 Release Notes, Full Self-Driving (Beta), Cabin Camera, Cabin Camera, Seat Belt System Enhancement, Tire Configuration, Tesla Adaptive Suspension, Car Colorizer, Improvements to...

www.notateslaapp.com

 

[WattsHappening]

How much does it cost per month/annum? I see all the lease returns come with FSD but only a month's worth of premium connectivity just to whet your whistle...

Edit: and just what do you get with it? Just curious as I have no idea of the difference...

I believe it is $10/mth or $100 for a year.

At a minimum, you get music, entertainment, traffic data for navigation. It's a must have.

 

[wipster]

And speaking of batteries...

Panasonic kicks off Kansas EV battery plant construction next month

Panasonic has planned a new electric vehicle (EV) battery plant in Kansas and will break ground on the project next month. The Japanese battery maker first announced it has selected Kansas as the site for [...]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[wipster]

I believe it is $10/mth or $100 for a year.

At a minimum, you get music, entertainment, traffic data for navigation. It's a must have.

Thanks for the info mate! Are premium music services like Tidal or Qobuz available?

 

[Tony73]

Tesla believes in their mission.

They will ship semis because it's consistent with their mission regardless of whether or not it is profit maximizing.

Then they will apply whatever resources they need to maximize the profits on doing it.

It takes 25 million BEVs to reduce oil consumption by 1 million b/d. It takes 500,000 semis to reduce oil consumption by the same amount.
The semi is obviously critical to the mission but it can still be very profitable once ramped. There is no reason Tesla can not do 30% gross margin on a $250k semi.

$180k in 2019 dollars is $210k today. Tack on the $40k incentive from the IRA and that gets you to $250k.

 

[WattsHappening]

Thanks for the info mate! Are premium music services like Tidal or Qobuz available?

Sorry, I don't know. You might want to check in the UI forum.

 

[RobDickinson]

Premium connectivity gets you live traffic views and sat maps, and live sentry view.

It also enables in car data for Music and movies etc but you can achieve the same by tethering your phone and using that data instead, if you want to have a wifi hotspot and select to always connect to this.

Tidal requires you to have your own Tidal subscription also.

 

[wipster]

Premium connectivity gets you live traffic views and sat maps, and live sentry view.

It also enables in car data for Music and movies etc but you can achieve the same by tethering your phone and using that data instead, if you want to have a wifi hotspot and select to always connect to this.

Tidal requires you to have your own Tidal subscription also.

Yeah I know that, Qobuz does as well. Thanks for the info!

 

[Thekiwi]

Elon Musk has pulled more than 50 Tesla employees into his Twitter takeover

(Warning: above is a CNBC / Lora Kolodny link)

“Among the dozens who Elon Musk enlisted specifically from Tesla are: Director of Software Development Ashok Elluswamy, Director of Autopilot and TeslaBot Engineering Milan Kovac, Senior Director of Software Engineering Maha Virduhagiri, a Senior Staff Technical Program Manager Pete Scheutzow, and Jake Nocon, who is part of Tesla’s surveillance unit, as a senior manager of security intelligence.

…

It is not immediately clear how Tesla employees are expected to split their schedules between the automaker and Twitter.
Typically, when Tesla employees work for other Elon Musk ventures, usually SpaceX or the Boring Company, they can get paid by the other venture as a consultant. Some of Musk’s employees have full-time roles at more than one of his businesses. For example, Tesla Vice President of Materials Charlie Kuehmann, is also concurrently a Vice President at SpaceX.

Other times, two Tesla employees told CNBC, Tesla workers are pressured to help with projects at his other companies for no additional pay because it’s good for their careers, or because the work is seen as helping with a related party transaction or project”

 

[Discoducky]

Installing now...but I doubt this is 2.4

2022.20.19 Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates

Tesla software update 2022.20.19 (FSD 10.69.2.4) includes Full Self-Driving (Beta) Suspension, FSD Beta v10.69.2.4 Release Notes, Full Self-Driving (Beta), Cabin Camera, Cabin Camera, Seat Belt System Enhancement, Tire Configuration, Tesla Adaptive Suspension, Car Colorizer, Improvements to...

www.notateslaapp.com

It is 2.4! Going for a drive!

 

[RobDickinson]

Short term I dont care, I guess Elon can shift some cash from Twitter to Tesla to cover their wages, long term I am sure they will hire replacements at twitter.

 

[aubreymcfato]

George Hotz is leaving Comma AI.

George Hotz, iPhone hacker and Elon Musk antagonist, is leaving Comma AI

Hotz calls self-driving cars a “scam.”

www.theverge.com

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Elon’s appallingly unwise retweet of a wild conspiracy theory regarding the crime against Pelosis will not do the stock price any good tomorrow. It is difficult to condemn it adequatly using civil language!

That prediction didn’t age well. TSLA ended the day down -0.43%, better than Nasdaq (-1.03%) and S&P 500 (-0.75%). So Elon’s tweets, which caused a complete meltdown on TMC this weekend, seem to have had no effect on the stock price at all.

An online poll today with well over a million participants is showing an 80% favorability rating.

Maybe being buried 24/7 in news about Elon, his companies and his every tweet is clouding our judgment about how he is perceived by the outside world. Our media bubbles and social bubbles, which for most of us probably lean to the left, may not provide a realistic and balanced view of the general public opinion.

Having financial exposure to the fate of Tesla likely does not help either.

—

P.S. Not 100% sure whether my post belongs here or in the Twitter thread. It’s a response to a post in the main thread which I left there this morning and it’s partly about the stock price, but an argument could be made that it’s too much about Elon’s tweets. Maybe I should ask a mod.

 

[Ogre]

It takes 25 million BEVs to reduce oil consumption by 1 million b/d. It takes 500,000 semis to reduce oil consumption by the same amount.
The semi is obviously critical to the mission but it can still be very profitable once ramped. There is no reason Tesla can not do 30% gross margin on a $250k semi.

$180k in 2019 dollars is $210k today. Tack on the $40k incentive from the IRA and that gets you to $250k.

I posted some numbers above which suggest exactly this.

My point here wasn’t that they won’t be highly profitable, but that they will make the semis regardless of whether the margins are great or not.

My feeling is they make a bunch **and** they make a lot of money on them eventually. But right now while they are just ramping production up and using 2170s, maybe margins won’t be very good.